Islamic State expands its ‘state’

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Displaced Sunni people, who fled the violence in the city of Ramadi, arrive at the outskirts of Baghdad, April 17, 2015.  REUTERS/Stringer
Displaced Sunni people, who fled the violence in the city of Ramadi, arrive at the outskirts of Baghdad, April 17, 2015. REUTERS/Stringer

Almost a year after Islamic State’s shock capture of Mosul, Iraq’s second city, the black flags of the jihadis have been raised over Ramadi, the capital of Anbar province to the west of Baghdad, seat of Iraq’s increasingly theoretical central government.

Nobody talks of Mosul or recapturing it from Islamic State. It is a forgotten city. Now it is all about the fall of Ramadi, the neighboring ancient Syrian city of Palmyra in central Syria and beyond – the Libyan city of Sirte, hometown of former leader Muammar Gaddafi.

To the eyes of many in the region, the real strategic loss behind the IS seizure of two Sunni cities in Iraq and Syria in a week is the evaporation of any Sunni alternative to the jihadis.

Although many leaders dismissed IS as vainglorious when it declared its cross-border caliphate in eastern Syria and western Iraq last summer, in its cohesion and purpose it is now seen by some – particularly Iraq’s minority Sunnis – as more of a state than the Iraqi government it is fighting.

“Simply put, the Islamic State is, or is on the verge of becoming, what it claims to be: a state,” wrote David Kilcullen who was a key player in the US 2007-08 Iraq troop ‘surge’ and a close observer of the rise of Islamic State.

He argues that unless Washington and its allies urgently change their counter-terrorism strategy the threat will only get worse. A coalition including the United States has been engaged in air strikes against Islamic State last summer, yet the group’s advance has continued.

“ISIS fights like a state… It fields more than 25,000 fighters, including a hard core of ex-Baathist professionals and Qaeda veterans. It has a hierarchical unit organization and rank structure, populated by former regular officers of Saddam Hussein’s military,” added Kilcullen in the Australian Quarterly Essay.

The Islamic State already has the foundations of a state.

It controls territory that includes major cities and covers a third each of Iraq and Syria; it has its own military and security force, a self-proclaimed administration that runs daily life – schools, government offices, utilities, hospitals, taxation and a judiciary system that follows sharia law.

Its resources are vast, including oilfields, refineries and agricultural land. It operates more like a regular army with a recruiting network, training camps and a propaganda machine.

In videos released by IS, its fighters and leader Abu Baqr al-Baghdadi confidently predict “the liberation of Anbar is the start of the liberation of Baghdad and Kerbala from the rawafed” – a derogatory term Sunni jihadis use to describe Shi’ites they condemn as infidels and idolaters.

The jihadis, who intersperse these propaganda films with shots of their training, along with religious slogans, look young, fit, well-armed and clad in crisp new military uniforms – not the picture offered by their opponents.

DEVASTATING DEFEAT

The Iraqi army crumbled in Ramadi in much the same way as it evaporated last summer when IS seized Mosul and overran swathes of north and central Iraq.

Iraq’s security forces were not “driven from” Ramadi, Gen Martin Dempsey, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff said acidly in Brussels, they “drove out of Ramadi”.

Just as important, the fall of this strategic city comes only weeks after IS itself was pushed out of Tikrit further north, exciting premature speculation that the jihadis might be on the run. The group’s capture of Ramadi happened in tandem with its seizure of Palmyra, with its two millennia-old Roman columns and priceless antiquities.

IS needed no more than a few hundred fighters to take Palmyra, highlighting the acute manpower shortage faced by Bashar al-Assad’s government, now into its fifth year of a civil war that has claimed more than 220,000 lives and displaced around half of Syria’s population.

Palmyra, or Tadmur in Arabic, is a world heritage site the jihadis might now destroy, as they did the ancient Assyrian city of Nimrud this year.

It has great strategic and symbolic value for IS, with nearby gas fields, and roads to the capital Damascus, Homs, the cradle of the revolt against Assad in Syria’s center, and to the south.

The fall of Ramadi is potentially devastating to the Iraqi government. It is the capital of the vast Anbar province, which stretches to Iraq’s western border with Jordan and Syria.

This was the launchpad of the Sunni jihadi insurgency against the American occupation after the US-led invasion of 2003. Islamic State now controls most of it and can threaten the western approaches to Baghdad, or even strike south into the Shi’ite heartland – as its propaganda videos threaten.

The Shi’ite-dominated government in Baghdad last year appointed Haidar al-Abadi as prime minister to replace Nuri al-Maliki, whose policies were seen as authoritarian and sectarian by Iraq’s alienated Sunni minority and Kurds, who run their own self-governing region in northern Iraq.

Backed by the United States and by Iran, Abadi has tried to be more inclusive, but the collapse of the Iraqi army leaves him reliant for ground troops on Shi’ite militia, trained and influenced by Iran, which were a primary cause of the alienation of these minorities in the first place.

Meanwhile, the government has failed to deliver on promised arms and training for Sunni tribal militia that drove IS’s predecessors from al-Qaeda out of Anbar in 2006-09.

This fits the IS narrative, that the fall of Ramadi shows that a Shi’ite majority government will never provide the arms that those Sunni tribes in Anbar would need if they were to oppose the jihadis, and therefore there is no alternative to IS.

TOO LATE FOR SAHWAT

As in Syria, furthermore, the striking battlefield successes of the jihadis are a powerful recruiting sergeant for disaffected Sunni youth.

Hassan Hassan, a Middle East analyst and author of a book on IS, says the real significance of Ramadi is that its Sunni tribes had been resisting the self-declared caliphate ever since Mosul fell and even long before.

U.S. and Iraqi talk of reviving the Sahwat (awakening) – the U.S.-armed Sunni militia that earlier defeated al-Qaeda – is now probably too late.

“The debate within the Sunni community in Iraq is now about those Sunnis in Ramadi who were cooperating with the government against Daesh (an Arabic acronym for IS) but have lost and were not capable to confront them. Other Sunni cities resisting Daesh will now think twice”.

Now confronted on the Ramadi frontline by Hashd al-Shaabi, the powerful, pro-Iranian and Shi’ite People’s Mobilisation militia that was blamed for violent reprisals against Sunni civilians after the fall of Tikrit, “the Sunnis are accepting Daesh as their Sunni army”, Hassan says.

“The moment has passed for the Americans to recruit Sunnis to fight the terrorist organization. This is past, it’s gone, it’s too late. Ramadi has been an idea for 10 years now and it collapsed”, Hassan says. “That is a watershed moment for Iraq”.

Tikrit, moreover, was no victory, Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, wrote this week.

“Tikrit was a campaign that failed to give Iraq’s Sunnis the reassurance they needed that the central government would support them in resisting ISIS or following up an ISIS defeat with immediate efforts to secure Tikrit and allow its Sunni Arab population to return.”

Ramadi and Tikrit taken together, in that light do not cancel each other out so much as demonstrate that the Sunnis cannot depend for their security either on the United States or on forces loyal to Iran. With insufficient means of their own, that is driving them toward the Islamic State.

“Local Sunni populations in IS-controlled areas may hate the group, but they often see the alternatives as even worse, in part because the militias have committed sectarian abuses after recapturing IS territory, but also because IS is still peddling sectarian fear of Shi’ites, or of the chaos that would result from its fall, presenting itself as defender of the Sunnis,” Kilcullen said.

“Western countries have a clear interest in destroying ISIS, but counter-insurgency should not even be under discussion. This is a straight-up conventional fight against a state-like entity, and the goal should be to utterly annihilate ISIS as a state.”

Reuters

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46 responses to “Islamic State expands its ‘state’”

  1. cook2half Avatar
    cook2half

    “It has its own military and security force, a self-proclaimed administration that runs daily life – schools, government offices, utilities, hospitals..”

    sounds exactly like Hezbushaitan don’t you think?

  2. 5thDrawer Avatar
    5thDrawer

    That picture looks like everyone lining up for their coffins, even if supporting a ‘bridge’ over the troubled waters.
    At the rate ISIS is going, there won’t be anyone left to feed them … or wash their stinky socks.
    Not that we care about feeding ISIS.
    Problem for other countries is also how to feed the refugees.
    At some point a ‘decision’ WILL be made … maybe at the end of the 5th year??
    Some will blame it on God.

    1. cook2half Avatar
      cook2half

      “or wash their stinky socks”

      I read that as cocks lol

        1. 5thDrawer Avatar
          5thDrawer

          Well, that too … they are certain to lose guys as well.

  3. 5thDrawer Avatar
    5thDrawer

    “The Islamic State already has the foundations of a state.”
    What a CROCK of DOOGY-DOO that is. The only way they have any foundation is that all the infrastructure OF a state built by many over a course of history – which THEY didn’t build – has been reduced to the foundations. How can anyone make that statement??
    If ‘killing fields’ is now some foundation of something, besides anarchy over a land mass, then maybe they have that – BUT they are not out in the fields planting anything either.
    Are ‘News People’ believing ISIS propaganda now??? Really?
    Does making insane statements about Gods, and blowing things up – advertised WELL on ‘You Tube’ – now constitute ‘State Building’ in the minds of folks working Reuters??? The only buildings left standing are the ones they throw people off of … and odds are those won’t be there long either. WHAT is actually being built to describe it a ‘State’??
    Can’t even say the population is homogenous … swords hanging over necks is rather fruitless ‘building’ when everyone is trying to get out with heads intact.
    If that’s any way to build a State, there needs to be new definitions of the word.

    1. cook2half Avatar
      cook2half

      You should write a book.

      1. 5thDrawer Avatar
        5thDrawer

        Really … the ‘newsies’ are becoming disgusting. 🙁

        1. cook2half Avatar
          cook2half

          You’re good at writing, I bet you type fast also

          1. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            No … only got 30 words a minute in the days before electric typewriters.
            (yes .. those existed …) :-))))

          2. cook2half Avatar
            cook2half

            lol. I do 91 WPM

          3. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            ‘O’ does that with a thumb on a cell-phone. :-))))))

          4. cook2half Avatar
            cook2half

            I hate using the internet on my cell, tiny screen ugh. I’m on the Macbook Air now lolz

          5. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            There we agree … and I have 24″ … hehehhe (don’t tell the girls … shhhh)

          6. cook2half Avatar
            cook2half

            I was just using my 17″ Dell (don’t have Microsoft Word here) and that felt big, can’t imagine 24″ wow.

          7. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            It’s lovely. 🙂
            And if I had the money, could be sending to a 50″ High Def on a wall ….
            (imagine detail at THAT size …. Ooooohhh)

          8. cook2half Avatar
            cook2half

            I have my last exam on Tuesday but ugh can’t concentrate. I did so well in essays throughout the year (mid 2.1s) that can’t be bothered.

          9. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            Sometimes ‘News Of The Idiot World’ can blot the mind … relax it .. you’ll be ok.

          10. cook2half Avatar
            cook2half

            haha lol. My degree is from the University of London btw. Don’t really need a degree to do day trading but oh well.

          11. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            Not having been ‘Universally Trained’, I can’t relate at all. 😉
            Degrees are only about temperature …

          12. cook2half Avatar
            cook2half

            Oh you didn’t do a BA? back in the day having one was good but not crucial from what I heard.

          13. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            Quite true. And I doubt it is ‘needed’ now, if the basics are sound.
            According to some ‘kids’ I hear from, a ‘BA’ is good for wiping tables in restaurants.

          14. cook2half Avatar
            cook2half

            Thats right, it doesn’t mean anything anymore. Also, students here owe £45,000 after they graduate.. good luck getting that money back.

          15. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            Indeed. Again. I DO know some younger people …. there are ‘moments’ I am happy I didn’t need to go through … one could be working, and doing ‘night school’ for some things – things one may be interested in doing. Nail the job FIRST.
            But it’s a way for ’employers to weed people OUT …. there are even lines added in ‘Help Wanted’ that say ‘3 years experience – minimum’ …. which simply means they don’t want to train anyone. Unions, and Apprenticships, being worse than ISIS carriers …. 😉
            Why, they might need to actually pay a descent wage while you apprentice.

          16. cook2half Avatar
            cook2half

            I don’t want to work for someone, would rather start a company or trade. I do make a lot of £ without working at the moment, there’s always a way.

          17. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            I know … experience showed I didn’t want to be on an assembly-line … wasn’t ‘me’. :-)))

          18. cook2half Avatar
            cook2half

            Going to Lebanon anytime soon?

          19. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            hmmmm … as much as I’d love to … I’m working on a Big Win at a lottery. HAHAHHA

          20. cook2half Avatar
            cook2half

            haha you really play the lottery?!! biggest rip off.

          21. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            One ticket. $2 a month. Only need one number. And I don’t even win free tickets …. so I don’t count on luck at all … even if I feel my life was really lucky to have had.

          22. cook2half Avatar
            cook2half

            They charge £2 a ticket here. Rarely buy one. Few years ago I got 4 numbers correct and won £76.. oh well pigs do fly.

          23. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            Yes … I had one of those … along with 20 million others in the same draw. Bummer.
            AND still had to use transportation to pick up the $300 – for 5 Numbers.
            Didn’t buy another for 6 months. :-)))))

          24. cook2half Avatar
            cook2half

            Nice. Shame others got the correct numbers too. At least at a casino you don’t have to share your winnings no matter how many win.

          25. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            Life is what you make of it … just go for it. 🙂
            Ignore what doesn’t fit for you … along with most of the idiots if you can avoid them.
            When you can’t, you need to work the brain. 😉
            Cheers.

        2. Hend Abyad Avatar
          Hend Abyad

          If you want to write a book you have to know all the disgusting details..5thLeCarré. “The curious case of Israel, al Nusra and ‘Facebook Spy’.
          http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/04/curious-case-israel-al-nusra-facebook-spy-150420082913157.html

          1. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            I didn’t say I wanted to … but the subject of it wouldn’t be about all this crap. ;-))

          2. Hend Abyad Avatar
            Hend Abyad

            I didn’t think you did 5thLecarré…it’s not worth it ;-l)

          3. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            (sometimes she makes my nipples tingle … I think it’s the French that does it …. mmmmm)
            There are, after all, much better subjects 😉

    2. Hend Abyad Avatar
      Hend Abyad

      It’s all not even worth to mention..what about mendacious Jumblat affirming Al Nusra is not a terrorist organization, he thought to save Druze in Syria?

  4. Fauzia45 Avatar
    Fauzia45

    The cause , dictators that have oppressed the people and denied them their basic rights as citizens ,refused to reform ,The result the spread of religious frustrated fanatics who have taken up the sword!These people will not settle down!As Diderot said,^The most dangerous madmen are those created by religion!^ They are indeed dangerous and mad!!!!

    1. Hend Abyad Avatar
      Hend Abyad

      What are religious fanatics coming from 80 different countries around the world doing in Syria?.
      Diderot – “Men will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest.”

      1. 5thDrawer Avatar
        5thDrawer

        Oooohhh … a good one. I like that line …. 😉

        1. Hend Abyad Avatar
          Hend Abyad

          He lived pr-Revolution.

  5. Militants of “Islamic Front” in Syria fired government forces by the German howitzer from the Second World War.
    On the field is howitzer leFH18 – one of the most common pieces of Wehrmacht artillery, video http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/isis/islamisten-feuern-mit-wehrmachtshaubitze-41025734.bild.html

    1. 5thDrawer Avatar
      5thDrawer

      Wow … where did they find the shells?? Hard to come by, I’d think … better to sell as antiques.

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