Will Biden’s support for Israel cost him the 2024 election?

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By Mike Bebernes

President Biden easily won the Democratic presidential primary in Michigan on Tuesday, but a significant share of his party’s voters used the election as an opportunity to express their anger over his support for Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza.

More than 100,000 Arab American Michigan Democrats cast their ballots as “uncommitted,” with many seeking to pressure Biden to call for a ceasefire to end the Israeli military’s ongoing assault on the Palestinian territory, which has killed over 30,000 Palestinians in Gaza since it started in early October.

“We need Joe Biden to listen to the voice of Michiganders,” said Layla Elabed, the campaign manager for one group seeking to pressure Biden, to the New York Times. “Listen to the voice of his core constituents and demand a permanent ceasefire now.”

Biden, a steadfast supporter of Israel throughout his lengthy political career, has consistently asserted Israel’s “right to defend itself” in the wake of the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas and has urged Congress to approve billions in additional military aid to bolster the campaign. At the same time, he has publicly urged the Israelis to practice restraint and has reportedly been much more forceful in private while seeking to help negotiate a temporary pause in hostilities.

Polls show that Americans as a whole are generally unhappy with the way Biden has handled the conflict. But that discontent is especially pronounced within key segments of the Democratic base, particularly young voters and people of color. Michigan, a critical swing state with the highest share of Arab American voters in the country, was widely viewed as the first real test of how damaging the war in Gaza might be for Biden as he heads into what is expected to be a tightly contested rematch against Donald Trump.

Organizers behind the “uncommitted” protest argued that the vote sent a clear message to the president that he risks alienating voters he can’t afford to lose by continuing to stand behind Israel as it carries out what they consider to be a genocide in Gaza. They argue, though, that Biden still has time to win back these voters who otherwise align with him on most issues, if he takes a stand by calling for a permanent ceasefire.

But others say the implications of the “uncommitted” vote are less obvious. They argue that while 100,000 votes could be enough to tip a state like Michigan in a close race, it’s not an overwhelming figure and may even be smaller than the number of pro-Israel Democrats he might turn away if he changed his stance on the war.

Another looming question is how many “uncommitted” voters are willing to go beyond simply making a statement against Biden and actually withhold their support for him when it really counts in November, knowing they could be helping Trump recapture the presidency.

Biden has expressed optimism that an agreement on a short-term ceasefire could be reached as soon as next week, but the already tenuous negotiations could be complicated even more amid reports that Israeli forces killed more than 100 Palestinians who were waiting for aid delivery in Gaza on Thursday.

More evidence of how large and widespread Biden’s Gaza problem is will come on Super Tuesday, when eight of the participating states will allow some variation of “uncommitted” voting in their primaries.

Yahoo

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