Is Syria trying to reoccupy Lebanon?

By Ali Hussein

According to Lebanese media reports as many as 300,000 young Syrian refugees are expected to flee to Lebanon within months. These are all young men between 20 and 50 years old who have served in the Syrian army and can be quickly organized and armed to fight the Lebanese army and reoccupy Lebanon as Syria did in 1975.

Lebanese Minister of the Displaced Issam Charafeddine on Thursday called on Syrian authorities to cooperate in managing the common border amid a new wave of illegal immigration from Syria to Lebanon.

Charafeddine made the appeal as the Lebanese army, short of troops, is not capable of controlling the shared border by itself, the National News Agency reported.

The minister revealed that the number of unauthorized arrivals in Lebanon reached 8,000 in August and has exceeded 20,000 so far this year.

At a cabinet meeting on Thursday, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati expressed his concerns about the new wave of Syrian refugees through illegal crossings into Lebanon, saying “It could threaten Lebanon’s independence and impose a severe imbalance in the country.”

At the start of the cabinet meeting, Mikati said the fleeing Syrians “could upset the demographic balances” in the country.

The country’s security forces have been cracking down on human smuggling in areas bordering Syria, as Lebanon is suffering a major financial crisis and the refugees weigh heavily on its already strained economy.

Lebanon, a country hosting the largest number of refugees per capita, is home to about two million Syrian refugees.  

Unlike the previous waves of Syrian refugees, this time they are mostly males between 20 and 50 years old. In the previous waves that started in 2011, the majority were women and children .

Most of the refugees travel back and forth between Lebanon and Syria regularly without any security issues . For this reason observers ask why doesn’t Lebanon insisist on deporting all the Syrians except a handful of people that are wanted by the regime ?

“If Europe wants to keep the refugees awa , what should Lebanon be singled out as the country that should host them?” One observer asked . If Europe really cares about the Syrian refugees they should create a safe enclave for them Syria so that they can go back home and live in dignity in their own country

Commenting on Charafeddine’s appeal for Syria’s help, a Lebanee observer based in the Beqaa region told me ” The only group that knows all the illegal border points between Lebanon and Syria is Hezbollah.” He added: “Most of the illegal border points and the routs leading to them were established by Hezbollah during the past 10 years when it helped the Syrian dictator in crushing the revolution. Instead of asking for Syria’s help Sharafeddine should. ask for Hezbollah’s help , since he is allied with them and they should be able to help.” Hezbollah is theonly group that can help the government in blocking the entry of the illegal refugees

The observer added: The question is will Hezbollah help the government or will it organize the fleeing Syrian men and take over Lebanon to make it part of Syria ?