President Vladimir Putin announced out of the blue on Monday that “the main part” of Russian armed forces in Syria will start to withdraw, telling his diplomats to step up the push for peace as U.N.-mediated talks resumed on ending the five-year-old war.
Syria rejected any suggestion of a rift with Moscow, saying President Bashar al-Assad had agreed on the “reduction” of Russian forces in a telephone call with Putin.
Western diplomats speculated Putin may be trying to press Assad into accepting a political settlement to the war, which has killed 250,000 people, although U.S. officials saw no sign yet of Russian forces preparing to pull out.
The anti-Assad opposition simply expressed bafflement, with a spokesman saying “nobody knows what is in Putin’s mind”.
Russia’s military intervention in Syria in September helped to turn the tide of war in Assad’s favour after months of gains in western Syria by rebel fighters, who were aided by foreign military supplies including U.S.-made anti-tank missiles.
Putin made his surprise announcement, made with no advance warning to the United States, at a meeting with his defence and foreign ministers.
Russian forces had largely fulfilled their objectives in Syria, Putin said. But he gave no deadline for the completion of the withdrawal and said forces would remain at a seaport and airbase in Syria’s Latakia province.
In Geneva, United Nations mediator Staffan de Mistura told the warring parties there was no “Plan B” other than a resumption of conflict if the first of three rounds of talks which aim to agree a “clear roadmap” for Syria failed to make progress.
Putin said at the Kremlin meeting he was ordering the withdrawal from Tuesday of “the main part of our military contingent” from the country.
“The effective work of our military created the conditions for the start of the peace process,” he said. “I believe that the task put before the defence ministry and Russian armed forces has, on the whole, been fulfilled.”
With the participation of the Russian military, Syrian armed forces “have been able to achieve a fundamental turnaround in the fight against international terrorism”, he added.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin had telephoned the Syrian president to inform him of the decision, but the two leaders had not discussed Assad’s future – the biggest obstacle to reaching a peace agreement.
The move was announced on the day United Nations-brokered talks involving the warring sides in Syria resumed in Geneva.
Moscow gave Washington no advance warning of Putin’s announcement, two U.S. officials said. Speaking on condition of anonymity, they added that they had seen no indications so far of preparations by Russia’s military for the withdrawal.
In Damascus, the Syrian presidency said in a statement that Assad had agreed to the reduction in the Russian air force presence, and denied suggestions that this reflected a difference between the two countries
“The whole subject happened in complete coordination between the Russian and Syrian sides, and is a step that was carefully and accurately studied for some time”, the statement said, adding that Moscow had promised to continue support for Syria in “confronting terrorism”.
Syria regards all rebel groups fighting Assad as terrorists.
Rebels and opposition officials alike reacted sceptically.
“I don’t understand the Russian announcement, it’s a surprise, like the way they entered the war. God protect us,” Fadi Ahmad, spokesman for the First Coastal Division, a Free Syria Army group fighting in the northwest, said.
Opposition spokesman Salim al-Muslat demanded a total Russian withdrawal. “Nobody knows what is in Putin’s mind, but the point is he has no right to be in be our country in the first place. Just go,” he said.
A European diplomat was also sceptical. “It has the potential to put a lot of pressure on Assad and the timing fits that,” the diplomat said.
“However, I say potentially because we’ve seen before with Russia that what’s promised isn’t always what happens.”MOMENT OF TRUTH
The Geneva talks are the first in more than two years and come amid a marked reduction in fighting after last month’s “cessation of hostilities”, sponsored by Washington and Moscow and accepted by Assad’s government and many of his foes.
Russia’s U.N. ambassador Vitaly Churkin confirmed some forces would stay in Syria. “Our military presence will continue to be there, it will be directed mostly at making sure that the ceasefire, the cessation of hostilities, is maintained,” he told reporters at the United Nations in New York.
However, he added: “Our diplomacy has received marching orders to intensify our efforts to achieve a political settlement in Syria.”
Speaking before Putin’s announcement, de Mistura said Syria faced a moment of truth, as he opened talks to end a war which has displaced half the population, sent refugees streaming into Europe and turned Syria into a battlefield for foreign forces and jihadis.
The limited truce, which excludes the powerful Islamic State and Nusra Front groups, is fragile. The warring sides have accused each other of multiple violations and they arrived in Geneva with what look like irreconcilable agendas.
The Syrian opposition says the talks must focus on setting up a transitional governing body with full executive power, and that Assad must leave power at the start of the transition. Damascus says Assad’s opponents are deluded if they think they will take power at the negotiating table.
In a sign of how wide the rift is, de Mistura is meeting the two sides separately, at least initially. The talks must focus on political transition, which is the “mother of all issues”, the U.N. envoy said.
Analysis: Putin’s mind is tough to read
According to a report by NPR, American intelligence officers find it hard to read what is on patin’s mind
“Putin plays his cards so closely that it’s hard for his own advisers to divine what he’s thinking,” Gregory Treverton, chairman of the National Intelligence Council was quoted as saying by NPR.
“Putin is so isolated that the chances that he might miscalculate and do something rash are top of my list for things I worry about,” says Treverton. “I am fond of distinguishing between puzzles — those things that have an answer, though we may not know it — and mysteries, those things that are iffy and contingent. And so how Putin is going to behave is presumably a mystery, and probably even a mystery to Putin.”
Treverton is not alone in this view, according o the report
Retired Adm. James Stavridis, commander of NATO forces from 2009 to 2013, says Putin is exceptional in how little he telegraphs.
“He certainly has a cabinet of close advisers,” Stavridis says.”But at the end of the day, the strategic terrain is not on a map somewhere — it’s in between Vladimir Putin’s ears.”
That makes it hard for the CIA and other spy agencies charged with tracking Russian military and economic assets — and with anticipating what Moscow might do next on the conflict in Syria, tensions in Crimea and a wide range of other matters.
Stavridis, now dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, points to a couple of factors that make Putin such a difficult target.
One is the degree of control he has amassed in his 17 years as either prime minister or president of Russia. You have to look to North Korea, Stavridis says, or to Fidel Castro’s long reign in Cuba to find another ruler who wields such absolute power.
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