Analysis:The Islamic State appears to fray from within

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isis fighters
By Liz Sly
The Islamic State appears to be starting to fray from within, as dissent, defections and setbacks on the battlefield sap the groupโ€™s strength and erode its aura of invincibility among those living under its despotic rule.

Reports of rising tensions between foreign and local fighters, aggressive and increasingly unsuccessful attempts to recruit local citizens for the front lines and a growing incidence of guerrilla attacks against Islamic State targets suggest the militants are struggling to sustain their carefully cultivated image as a fearsome fighting force drawing Muslims together under the umbrella of a utopian Islamic state.

The anecdotal reports, drawn from activists and residents of areas under Islamic State control, donโ€™t offer any indication that the group faces an immediate challenge to its stranglehold over the mostly Sunni provinces of eastern Syria and western Iraq that form the backbone of its self-proclaimed caliphate. Battlefield reversals have come mostly on the fringes of its territory, while organized opposition remains unlikely as long as viable alternatives are lacking and the fear of vicious retribution remains high, Syrians, Iraqis and analysts say.

The bigger threat to the Islamic Stateโ€™s capacity to endure, however, may come from within, as its grandiose promises collide with realities on the ground, said Lina Khatib, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.

โ€œThe key challenge facing ISIS right now is more internal than external,โ€ she said, using another term for the group. โ€œWeโ€™re seeing basically a failure of the central tenet of ISIS ideology, which is to unify people of different origins under the caliphate. This is not working on the ground. It is making them less effective in governing and less effective in military operations.โ€

Most striking are the growing signs of friction between the foreigners lured by its state-building experiment and local recruits, who have grown resentful of the preferential treatment meted out to the expatriates, including higher salaries and better living conditions.
foreign fighters in Syria
Foreign fighters get to live in the cities, where coalition airstrikes are relatively rare because of the risk of civilian casualties, while Syrian fighters are required to serve in rural outposts more vulnerable to attacks, said an activist who opposes the Islamic State and lives in the town of Abu Kamal on Syriaโ€™s border with Iraq, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

Shootouts have erupted on several occasions on the streets of the town, including one last week between foreign fighters and Syrians who refused an order by a Kuwaiti commander to deploy to the front lines in Iraq, the activist said. The Syrian faction, under the command of Saddam Jamal, a former Free Syrian Army leader, remains in the town, keeping a tense and wary distance from the faction led by the Kuwaiti, he said.

In an incident in the Iraqi city of Ramadi in January, local allies battled a group made up mostly of Chechens after the foreigners decided to head back to Syria, according to Hassan al-Dulaimi, a retired police general who works with tribal fighters aligned against the Islamic State. โ€œThe Iraqis feared they were being abandoned,โ€ he said.

There have been signs, too, that some foreign jihadists are growing disillusioned, with activists in the Syrian provinces of Deir al-Zour and Raqqa describing several instances in which foreigners have sought local help to escape across the border to Turkey. The bodies of between 30 and 40 men, many of whom appeared to be Asians, were found last month in the Raqqa town of Tabqa. They are thought to be the remains of a group of jihadist fighters who tried to flee but were caught, according to the activist group Raqqa Is Being Slaughtered Silently, which monitors Islamic State activities.

New restrictions on travel in and out of areas controlled by the Islamic State have been imposed in recent weeks, including a prohibition on truck drivers transporting men without permission, the activist group says. Public executions, a core component of Islamic State discipline, have in recent weeks been extended to about 120 of the groupโ€™s own members, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Some were accused of spying and one with smoking, but suspicions are widespread that most were simply fighters caught trying to flee.

foreign fighters syria 2
Foreign fighters flow to Syria: ย The number of foreign fighters who have joined the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq now exceeds 20,000, up from the 15,000 estimated last October. According to ICSR, nearly a fifth of the fighters come from Western European nations.

 

Meanwhile, territorial losses in northern Syria and elsewhere in Iraq are contributing to the sense that the group that stunned the world with its triumphant sweep through Iraq and Syria last summer is now not only on the defensive but also struggling to find a coherent strategy to confront the multiple forces ranged against it.

The Islamic State is battling major offensives waged on at least three fronts, by Kurds in northern Syria, Kurds in northern Iraq and the combined Iraqi army-Shiite militia force advancing on the central Iraqi city of Tikrit. Islamic State fighters have also been expanding into eastern areas of the Syrian provinces of Homs and Damascus, but the incremental advances there arenโ€™t as spectacular as its conquests last year.

Most of the setbacks have come in non-Sunni areas, such as the Kurdish enclave around Kobane or the mixed province of Diyala in eastern Iraq, where the Islamic Stateโ€™s territorial ambitions may have been doomed by the absence of allies on the ground.

A far bigger test of the Islamic Stateโ€™s military capabilities will be the battle underway for control of Tikrit, the Sunni home town of Saddam Hussein. As the ethnic and sectarian sentiments driving the fight for territory harden across Syria and Iraq, a victory for the overwhelmingly Shiite forces would also test the ability of non-Sunni groups to retain hold over conquered Sunni territories, analysts say.

The Islamic Stateโ€™s losses in terms of land and blood have been fairly substantial, including the loss of hundreds of villages around the Kurdish town of Kobane in Syria, near the northern Iraqi town of Sinjar and in the eastern Iraqi province of Diyala.

The battles appear to have taken a high toll on the groupโ€™s strength, estimated at about 20,000 foreigners alongside an unknown number of Iraqis and Syrians. The Pentagon claimed last week that coalition airstrikes have killed 8,500 fighters, though the figure canโ€™t be confirmed.

Syrians say the bloodshed is deterring the recruitment of local citizens who were clamoring a few months ago for the opportunity to earn salaries by joining the only new source of employment available.

Increasingly, the Islamic State is recruiting fighters among children and teens who remain more vulnerable than older adults to the groupโ€™s propaganda, said a businessman living in Raqqa who last week paid condolences to family friends whose 15-year-old son had been killed on the front line.

The parents didnโ€™t know he had gone to fight and learned of his death from a neighbor just days after he had disappeared from home, recalled the businessman, who, like others interviewed, spoke on the condition of anonymity because he fears for his safety.

Intensified efforts to persuade Syrians to go to the front lines in Iraq include offers of up to $800 a month in salary, according to Ahmed Mhidi, who arrived in Turkey two weeks ago from the Syrian city of Deir al-Zour and is setting up an opposition group called DZGraph. The offer has won few takers, he said.

An image made available by Jihadist media outlet Welayat Raqa on Jun 30, 2014, allegedly shows a member of the IS (Islamic state) militant group parading with a tank in a street in the northern rebel-held Syrian city of Raqa.
An image made available by Jihadist media outlet Welayat Raqa on Jun 30, 2014, allegedly shows a member of the IS (Islamic state) militant group parading with a tank in a street in the northern rebel-held Syrian city of Raqa.

The Islamic State โ€œwas never popular, but people supported them because they were scared or they needed money,โ€ he said. โ€œNow people want nothing to do with them, and if the Islamic State puts pressure on them, they just flee.โ€

The province of Deir al-Zour, bordering Iraq, appears to be where opposition to the Islamic State is hardening the most. Small-scale attacks involving ambushes of Islamic State patrols or checkpoints are on the rise โ€” including one that killed 12 members of a feared police group Sunday.

Foreigners continue to volunteer, streaming across the Turkish border into the Islamic Stateโ€™s self-styled capital of Raqqa, according to residents there. The cityโ€™s population has been swelled by thousands of Europeans, Asians, Arabs and Africans. Upon arrival they are given cars and apartments, and they mill about among the cityโ€™s cafes and markets, lending a cosmopolitan air to streets where foreigners once were rare, according to Abu Ibrahim al-Raqqawi, the pseudonym of one of the founders of the Raqqa Is Being Slaughtered Silently group, who now lives in Turkey.

Many of the foreigners show little inclination to travel to the front lines, he said. โ€œThey just want to live in the Islamic State,โ€ he said. โ€œThey didnโ€™t come to fight.

How useful they would be to the Islamic Stateโ€™s military efforts is also in question, said the Carnegie Middle East Centerโ€™s Khatib.

โ€œUltimately, they are only attracting people on the margins of society, without much education or useful skills,โ€ she said. โ€œItโ€™s not exactly bolstering their military capability.โ€

 

Washington Post

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186 responses to “Analysis:The Islamic State appears to fray from within”

  1. Hannibal Avatar
    Hannibal

    ISIS: Idiotic Scum In Syria

    1. wargame1 Avatar
      wargame1

      George Haswani a Maronite Christian has a cozy relationship with the Daesh Scum. The EU confirms sanctions against George Haswani, the middleman who buys Oil from ISIS for the Assad crime dynasty
      The EU and British Government have finally confirmed what anyone who has followed the conflict in Syria knows. The Assad crime dynasty, and the group known as ISIS operate in close co-operation, and are inter-dependent.
      Sanctions are now finally being prepared against George Haswani, the middleman who co-ordinates the supply of Oil from IS to the assad crime dynasty. IS are currently aiding Iranian forces by attacking Syrian patriots east of Aleppo, and have also returned the T4 gas processing facility completely undamaged to assad crime dynasty gunmen.

      https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-welcomes-new-eu-syria-sanctions-listings

      1. Hannibal Avatar
        Hannibal

        George Haswani is a Greek Catholic businessman from the town of Yabroud NOT a Maronite Christian.

        1. 5thDrawer Avatar
          5thDrawer

          Hannibal … Can’t expect a Muslim to know the difference, can you? ;-)))))

          1. Hannibal Avatar
            Hannibal

            behave ๐Ÿ˜›

          2. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            (hehehehehehe)

          3. Don’t hold back now. Good to see you expose your true colors yet again

          4. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            Red, White and Blue for you … no black and yellow … :-))))))))))

          5. And here i am under the impression the canadian flag was pink

          6. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            Didn’t we invent ‘Think Pink’ too? The Israelis don’t do it all. :-))))

          7. Nice of you to post your pic online

            But pink would’ve been more your color

          8. ๐Ÿ™‚

          9. Anti ISIS Avatar
            Anti ISIS

            Double behave 5th.

          10. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            I try Anti … really I do … but, sometimes …. you know … :-))))

          11. Anti ISIS Avatar
            Anti ISIS

            ;-)))))))

          12. lick lick
            slurp slurp
            no morals, no dignity.
            your wife would’ve been proud. :))))))

        2. Maborlz Ez-Hari Avatar
          Maborlz Ez-Hari

          Doesn’t matter he is still a catholic but it seems he worships the dollar, not much of a Christian if it’s true. He’s gรฒt the same blood on his hands as the Isis hyenas and asshead.

          1. ” He’s gรฒt the same blood on his hands as the Isis hyenas and asshead.”

            How dare you say Dr Assad has blood on his hands! He hasn’t performed an “operation” in years. You isis lover blah blah blah

      2. Thank you for the link. Of course certain bigots and certain shites will ignore the evidence that is “staring them in the eyes”.
        ๐Ÿ™‚

      3. 5thDrawer Avatar
        5thDrawer

        errrr …. anyone checking the phone-book to see how many George Haswani are in there??
        Ran into this problem once before … 7 guys with same name … 6 being ‘labelled’ for the work of another.

    2. 5thDrawer Avatar
      5thDrawer

      I still think it’s not a bad idea to gather humanity’s ‘brain-deads’ in one place … in, ok, but not out. ๐Ÿ˜‰
      If we need to ‘cull the herd’ on occasion to keep a food-supply up … well ….

      1. MekensehParty Avatar
        MekensehParty

        They also say the Spanish civil war cleaned Western Europe of many socialists/communists ๐Ÿ˜‰

        1. 5thDrawer Avatar
          5thDrawer

          Yes Mek … and a disillusioned one came back to write ‘Animal Farm’ & ‘1984’.
          Almost bibles … ๐Ÿ˜‰

      2. “I still think it’s not a bad idea to gather humanity’s ‘brain-deads’ in one place”

        So only muslims are “brain-deads”?
        Yet again your true colors are showing. ๐Ÿ™‚

        1. 5thDrawer Avatar
          5thDrawer

          I’m not the one who mentioned muslims there … ๐Ÿ˜‰

          1. Oh so you were talking about bhuddists gathering in syria and iraq. RIGHT!
            PLEASE bitch. don’t insult the intelligence of people reading this.
            don’t worry, hind, anti and man of warts won’t be insulted.

          2. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            Nope … they won’t … they can see there are ‘others’. :-)))))

          3. Buddy you have been exposed, just like those “others” have been too.
            ๐Ÿ™‚

          4. Anti ISIS Avatar
            Anti ISIS

            Lol, I love it. You hammer this bitch every single time and yet like a good puppy she comes back for more. :-))))
            I must admit, it does keep me entertained. :-))

          5. “Lol, I love it. You hammer this bitch every single time and yet like a good puppy she comes back for more”

            Just like your wife keeps coming back every single time. That cheap assed whore loves getting hammered, even with your puny penis. Although i wouldn’t really call that hammering as much as scratching.

          6. Anti ISIS Avatar
            Anti ISIS

            Sorry, did you say something. I’m trying to work out whether someone on yalibnan farted or you just spoke. It’s the same noise.

          7. Wow so these words i am typing are making noise at your end. You should seek psychiatric help.
            Btw you are truly the most uneducated baboon on this blog.

          8. Maborlz Ez-Hari Avatar
            Maborlz Ez-Hari

            I’ll put my hand up for that one, every time I get on here I think I must be an uneducated baboon.

          9. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            We’re all in that same boat, Mab. Wanna share a gas-mask? :-))))

          10. lick lick
            slurp slurp
            grovel grovel
            Get off your knees and act like a man!
            In fact i have more respect for anti education and daft mare than i have for you. At least they are not two faced and say (bark and neigh) what they feel. Unlike you you two faced dirty old man.

          11. you sound more educated than anti education but i am sure you still are a baboon.

          12. Maborlz Ez-Hari Avatar
            Maborlz Ez-Hari

            Sorry Anti I had Sahan phasoulia, and the noise is deafening.

          13. Isn’t that sweet, two old farts giving each other like.
            Do you also share the same nursing home?

          14. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            Nope. His didn’t have the good Scotch …

          15. So you are in the old queens nursing home while he is in the mental asylum with daft mare.

          16. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            Ahhhhh … but my ‘nurses’ are good at massage … ๐Ÿ˜‰

          17. “but my ‘nurses’ are good at massage”

            Yes those MALE ‘nurses’ must be very good at massaging your prostate. ๐Ÿ™‚

          18. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            At least I don’t need to repeat it every minute. :-)))))

          19. MekensehParty Avatar
            MekensehParty

            lol

          20. How is that mental asylum?
            Are you next door to hind?

          21. Did you try telling them you are not mentally insane?
            Let me guess, they replied but ” the evidence is staring us in our eyes”.
            lmfao
            Trust me I am going to remind you of that for as long as it keeps amusing me.

          22. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            (and we know ‘some’ are SO amused by their little penises …. ;-))

          23. “and we know ‘some’ are SO amused by their little penises”

            Glad to hear your penis amuses you. That’s what happens when one gets old and senile. ๐Ÿ™‚

          24. Hannibal Avatar

            LOL

          25. WOW man, that was “deep” ๐Ÿ™‚

          26. Anti ISIS Avatar
            Anti ISIS

            And I bet you love it deep, don’t you. I have a pet horse I can introduce you to.

          27. ” I have a pet horse I can introduce you to”

            Let me guess, daft mare! You can keep the mad cow disease suffering bitch.

    3. “ISIS: Idiotic Scum In Syria”

      Only one problem with that wealth of intelligence of yours. One word: Iraq.

      1. Hannibal Avatar

        PinOcchiO

        1. PinOcchiO

  2. paper tiger

    1. 5thDrawer Avatar
      5thDrawer

      Chinese specialty? ๐Ÿ˜‰

  3. Caribbean Avatar
    Caribbean

    I fully supported ISIS when they are slaughtering their own.

    1. i fully supported your mum when she was going to abort you by doing a shite.

    2. man-o-war Avatar
      man-o-war

      Ignore “o”rangutan, its a daesh supporter and doesn’t like to hear such talk.

      1. cook2half Avatar
        cook2half

        Thats silly, how could a zionist support ISIS?

          1. lick lick
            slurp slurp
            here comes spineless

        1. man-o-war Avatar
          man-o-war

          Why is the zionist “o”rangutan coming to their defense?

          1. Show ONE COMMENT where i defended daash you douchbag man of warts.

            I dare you to find just ONE
            Lying shite whore

          2. Anti ISIS Avatar
            Anti ISIS

            Because dogs run in packs.

          3. I’m still waiting you lying shite, son of a shite, brother of a shite whore and son of a fat shite whore.

        2. Logic doesn’t rank highly in the shite world ๐Ÿ˜‰

  4. MekensehParty Avatar
    MekensehParty

    The locals, who originally favor an Islamic State, tasted what it is like to truly live in an Islamic State.
    Unfortunately they needed a bloody lesson to learn it instead of reading it in a book.

    1. Hannibal Avatar
      Hannibal

      They could have acid-tested it in Saudi Arabia first ๐Ÿ˜›

      1. MekensehParty Avatar
        MekensehParty

        That’s next on the menu ๐Ÿ˜‰

    2. Still going with your “staring you in the eyes” scientific evidence i see. You truly are a joke. The fact you chose to ignore me after you first used “it’s staring you in the eyes” “evidence, just proves how flawed your conspiracy theory is.
      Like i keep telling you, try using “it’s staring you in the eyes” line in a these. LMFAO
      HAHAHAHAA
      Wait for it…… LMFAO

      1. MekensehParty Avatar
        MekensehParty

        hey kid, when the grownups are talking go play with the people from your level on who insults better.

        1. “hey kid, when the grownups are talking go play with the people from your level on who insults better.”

          Said the child as it insulted me. repeat after me. ready?

          H
          Y
          P
          O
          C
          R
          I
          T
          E

      2. Hannibal Avatar

        Your ass is indeed fucking hahahahahahahahahaha

        1. Must be a arab joke, seeing you are arab what else can one expect.

  5. Leborigine Avatar
    Leborigine

    So in other words ‘Cleansing Eastern Europe and the Middle East from the scumbags’
    What better place to do it than in syria!
    Oh well, c’est la vie!

    1. Just in case you didn’t notice Einstein, it is also happening in Iraq.
      Wtf did Iraq do to you you bitter arab!

      1. 5thDrawer Avatar
        5thDrawer

        I think he’s in the USA just like You. ๐Ÿ™‚
        But if NONE of them make it back to where they came from, it would be a bonus. ๐Ÿ˜‰

        1. “I think he’s in the USA just like You.”

          how long did you say you have been on yalibnan?
          That fool is in south australia, which in case you didn’t notice, is nowhere near me. maybe your dementia is worse than we first thought.

          1. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            I don’t ‘track’ everyone to ‘get the goods’ on them … I’m not Mal-Mucky.
            You seem to know it’s not only Australia, but SOUTH Australia …. yet ALL of Australia is similar to the ‘western world’ isn’t it???
            We’re all in this together. I know the name. It’s enough.

          2. ” yet ALL of Australia is similar to the ‘western world’ isn’t it???”

            Wrong again old man

          3. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            Well, maybe a bigger desert …..

          4. no not talking about the desert.
            you really need to learn to stop making generalizations.

          5. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            And you don’t???

          6. no i don’t. when i talk about shites, i have stated numerous times it is about the shites commenting ON THIS BLOG!
            again, geezuz fucking christ. are you that stupid?
            btw you are too predictable, i knew you would say something along those lines

          7. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            Ah … and all Shiites are in the same bag ??? (should have seen that coming too ๐Ÿ˜‰

          8. on this blog, YES!
            i’m surprised you see anything at your age

          9. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            On that one, me too … staring at this screen may not have been the greatest idea.
            Although, I hear cell-phones are causing neck/shoulder problems ….

          10. ” I hear cell-phones are causing neck/shoulder problems”

            not to mention possible cancer from the radiation, hence why you should use headphones instead of putting the phone to your ear.
            but wtf does that have to do with the current subject?

          11. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            You’re right .. there’s enough segues in here … time for the pork sausages and eggs … cheers. ;-))
            (hmmm … a love/hate relationship it seems … better not comment on that one up there…)

          12. yum.. you made me hungry you stupid old fart ๐Ÿ˜›

          13. “Putting headphones on causes people to walk into traffic”

            Please put on headphones on!
            while you’re at it, send a pair to daft mare.

          14. and again, if you are going to add something after you post your comment then post it as a new comment instead of editing your previous comment. The headphones line was an edit, which shows how slow you are with the one liners. But you try to deceive by pretending that was said straight away when in fact it wasn’t.
            Very dishonest and deceptive of you.

          15. “I don’t ‘track’ everyone to ‘get the goods’ on them”

            lol no need to “track” leborigine to know he is from south australia, considering he TOLD everyone on here that read his comments. geezuz fucking christ.

          16. 5thDrawer Avatar
            5thDrawer

            Geee … guess I missed one of his missives …. oopsie on me.

          17. “Geee … guess I missed one of his missives …. oopsie on me.”

            I forgive you this time but don’t let it happen again!!!!!
            @5thDrawer:disqus ๐Ÿ˜›

            i love to hate you

          18. wow you keep editing also.
            if you have something to add then add it in a new comment instead of being deceptive, like daft mare.

    1. 5thDrawer Avatar
      5thDrawer

      hehehehehehe … shhhhhh ….. no ‘disenters’ to the view ???

      1. Guess where the following occurred?

        “was sold into the sex trade by a family member when she was only 12 years old.

        Her life became a prison: Chained to a bed in a warehouse, she endured
        regular beatings, rapes and once was even set on fire by her captors as
        she was forced to serve 5 to 30 men every day. The experience was enough
        for her to wish she was dead.”

        1. 5thDrawer Avatar
          5thDrawer

          California … Beachercise Club? ๐Ÿ˜‰ or … hmmm … Mexico? Or, hmmm … Vancouver?
          Or … anywhere a pack of brain-dead misfits can get away with it.
          You don’t like whores … seems a farmer up here was feeding them to pigs. What can I say? It’s EVERYWHERE.’ Even in Europe.

          1. Texas

        1. 5thDrawer Avatar
          5thDrawer

          Hey US=IS … don’t stick good stuff at the bottom of a page like this .. Ok?
          And the follow-up by ‘Syria Girl’ is good too. ๐Ÿ™‚

          1. TheUSequalsTheIS Avatar
            TheUSequalsTheIS

            i wanted my nick to be US=IS but u can only use letters ๐Ÿ™
            i havent watched it yet.

  6. LEBANON101 Avatar
    LEBANON101

    shia , druze, jews, kurds, Christians, alwaties all need to unite against these radicals and people who think they can boss us around. sunnis are not the majority in the area between the MED sea and iran only in over all islam . they are no the majority in iraq, or lebanon , or iran or israel . i rather have a jewish enemy than a palestian freind. palestinans would join with isis if given the chance and kill christians and shia. palesintians have no freinds. they shoot at the same egyptians that feed them, and turned there back on the same al assad and iran that supported them for years.

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