Assad follows in his father’s footsteps

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By : Ali Hussein, Ya Libnan  Volunteer

It appears that Syrian president Bashar al Assad is following in his father’s footsteps  and has decided to use his father’s old trick of ‘divide and rule’ to reoccupy Lebanon.

According to Lebanese observers familiar with the Syrian regime’s thinking,  Assad never intended to end the crisis in Lebanon , he reportedly used the Saudi -Syrian dialogue as a cover for Syria’s comeback to Lebanon and for this reason the Saudi Syrian efforts failed and so did the Qatari-Turkish  efforts .

The  observers  believe that Assad all along wanted the crisis in Lebanon to escalate and to lead  to a Muslim Sunni- Shiite strife in order for him to  justify sending his troops as the savior for Lebanon  , just like his father did in 1976  when he occupied  Lebanon until 2005  (following the assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri ) when Syrian troops had to withdraw under Lebanese and US pressure.

In an address to the Lebanese people Caretaker Prime Minsiter Saad Hariri said he decided to maintain his candidacy for  premiership and accused the Iranian backed Hezbollah led opposition of trying to kick him out of political life .

He said he made one sacrifice after another but the opposition always wanted more and “unfortunately the Saudi Syrian efforts failed ”

MP Walid Jumblatt was told by Hariri prior to his meeting  last Saturday with the Syrian president : “They want me to surrender and present concession after concession … on top of that they have a gun pointed to my head,” he was quoted as saying.

Hariri also reportedly told Jumblatt that the opposition cannot be counted on in respecting agreements, as proven through its violation of the Doha agreement when the opposition ministers resigned from Cabinet.

There is no reason  for Hezbollah  to celebrate according to the observers because :

–          Under no circumstances will Syria allow Hezbollah to completely control Lebanon for security reasons. Complete control of Lebanon will spell disaster for Syrian security , because any war between Israel and Hezbollah will mean a war on Syria too

–          Once Hezbollah is in complete control of Lebanon then Iran will be in full  control  of the country and  Syria will lose its only card in negotiating a peace agreement with Israel to regain control of the Golan Heights .

–          Just like his father(the late Hafez  Assad) , Bashar will invade Lebanon and his target will be ….yes Hezbollah as his father targeted his former allies the Palestine Liberation Organization in 1976

Assad could have easily convinced Hezbollah to cooperate during the Saudi Syrian peace efforts, but  observers believe he decided not to do so because he  wanted to play off Hariri against Hezbollah to create a Sunni Shiite strife .

Assad could have also easily convinced MP Walid Jumblatt to continue supporting Hariri’s candidacy  , but obviously he didn’t .

Jumblatt  who has the decisive vote has reportedly informed concerned officials in the Future movement that he is being subjected to great pressures against naming Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri as the premier of a new government, knowing that he had previously informed Hariri that he would be naming him. He will now name former Lebanese prime minister Omar Karami in place of Hariri.

Jumblatt reportedly informed his circles that the policy of insisting on Hariri as the new prime minister will lead to “catastrophic consequences” on the security field, on him personally, PSP members, and the Druze in the Shouf, Alley, Hasbaya, and the western Bekaa.

This comes a day after Jumblatt dispatched to Syria Public Works and Transportation Minister Ghazi Aridi,( who is a member of the Progressive Socialist party and   also a member  of Jumblatt’s Democratic Gathering parliamentary bloc  ) reportedly to obtain Assad’s latest  instructions  as the  Turkish Qatar’ talks appeared destined to fail .

According to report by Al Jazeera when  the Lebanese woke up this morning and heard that the Qatari and Turkish mediation efforts have failed , this raised a lot of fear .

“There’s a lot of fear in this country that without some sort of agreement, the situation could spiral out of control and we’ve seen that happen in the past.” The report said and added

‘”The Lebanese are now bracing themselves for what could be a long, drawn-out political crisis; a crisis that could lead to violence and in the words of the Saudi foreign minister, a dangerous political crisis that could lead to the division of Lebanon.

MP Atef Majdalani, a member of    Hariri’s parliamentary majority bloc , said he believes the latest developments indicate that Hezbollah planned to resort to military action to impose its agenda.

“As far as I am concerned what is happening means that Hezbollah has decided to resort to military action and to pursue the coup it launched by withdrawing its ministers from the government last week,” Majdalani told the AFP news agency.

Hariri told the Lebanese people today : “One drop of blood of Lebanese citizens is more precious than anything else.

He said : “For this reason we decided not to take to the streets…. because we are committed to the constitution and added :”Taking to the streets is not a nationalistic rhetoric.”

The question is : Will the Sunnis allow Hezbollah to take over the country?

God help Lebanon

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Comments

45 responses to “Assad follows in his father’s footsteps”

  1. Constantin7 Avatar
    Constantin7

    I wish Bashar the same fate as Zein-el-Abidin….

  2.  Avatar

    I wish Bashar the same fate as Zein-el-Abidin….

  3. Theballisround Avatar
    Theballisround

    The game is long and the ball is round. March 14 has to play the democratic game and move into the opposition with the amazing new veto-power. The West sold Lebanon to the Syrians because the Israelis want the Syrians back, they want them to control Hizbollah. They always said it: They can deal with the Syrians, they can’t with Hezbollah. The dice were fluked Mr Hariri, and you should never have trusted the Americans, they will always play in Israel’s interest.

  4. Theballisround Avatar
    Theballisround

    The game is long and the ball is round. March 14 has to play the democratic game and move into the opposition with the amazing new veto-power. The West sold Lebanon to the Syrians because the Israelis want the Syrians back, they want them to control Hizbollah. They always said it: They can deal with the Syrians, they can’t with Hezbollah. The dice were fluked Mr Hariri, and you should never have trusted the Americans, they will always play in Israel’s interest.

  5.  Avatar

    The game is long and the ball is round. March 14 has to play the democratic game and move into the opposition with the amazing new veto-power. The West sold Lebanon to the Syrians because the Israelis want the Syrians back, they want them to control Hizbollah. They always said it: They can deal with the Syrians, they can’t with Hezbollah. The dice were fluked Mr Hariri, and you should never have trusted the Americans, they will always play in Israel’s interest.

  6. Theballisround Avatar
    Theballisround

    Does this mean we will see bashar’s face on posters at rafic harira’s airport? Thanks to micky mouse aoun?

    1. No, probably thanks to March 14, the same people who kept Syria in Lebanon for 30 years, when they invite Syria back to get rid of Hezbollah.

  7.  Avatar

    Does this mean we will see bashar’s face on posters at rafic harira’s airport? Thanks to micky mouse aoun?

    1. No, probably thanks to March 14, the same people who kept Syria in Lebanon for 30 years, when they invite Syria back to get rid of Hezbollah.

  8. Georgeabuali Avatar
    Georgeabuali

    A sticky situation, indeed!
    Here is possible scenario may come, duration 6-9 months
    HA will take control of gov.
    No violence will take place at 1st, but few will die
    West ask HA and Syria to surrender the accused killers of Rafic Hariri, and restore leg. gov.
    They would refuse.
    Leb, gov. can’t act or change the situation
    The West will issue warning through UN that US and NATO would hit hard militarily. Turkey can be a key since they are NATO too!
    Then a military strike happens, but no avail.
    Another warning would be issued that suggest international troops would enter Lebanon to remove HA and supporter and restore leg. gov.
    Syria and Iran would be outraged, Arab will keep silence
    Troops will enter country from the North- and start the removal of HA
    HA would start shelling Israel for retaliation. US tell Syria to stay out or help, if want to survive.
    BEST SCENARIO! any one adds to it or contrary….

    1. NAGDELLA Avatar

      Then you get off the…

    2. NAGDELLA Avatar

      Then you get off the…

    3. I almost agree, but it will take the international community few years before agreeing on sending troops to remove HA becuase the damage and devastation that will hit the country will take us back to the medival ages…this will be worst than another civil war. The troops will not be sent to save Lebanon from HA but to neutralize HA from being a threat to Isreal as a priority and that sucks because no matter how you look at it, it is a lose lose situation for Lebanon. I do not wish HA bad, and I really thing they need to keep their arms but not to use them against us and point them again towards Isreal. We do not have a freakin army, I rather have HA defend us than any other country Arab or non Arab.
      We need to sort out all our problems oursleves and for ourselves because no body wish is good and has good intentions to help us, they all have alterior motives and pretending to help us……All the politicians should be put on one plane and stay in the air till they agree to sort out this mess and if they don’t the plane will run out of fuel and just crash and we alll live happily ever after….how is that for a scenario??

    4. I almost agree, but it will take the international community few years before agreeing on sending troops to remove HA becuase the damage and devastation that will hit the country will take us back to the medival ages…this will be worst than another civil war. The troops will not be sent to save Lebanon from HA but to neutralize HA from being a threat to Isreal as a priority and that sucks because no matter how you look at it, it is a lose lose situation for Lebanon. I do not wish HA bad, and I really thing they need to keep their arms but not to use them against us and point them again towards Isreal. We do not have a freakin army, I rather have HA defend us than any other country Arab or non Arab.
      We need to sort out all our problems oursleves and for ourselves because no body wish is good and has good intentions to help us, they all have alterior motives and pretending to help us……All the politicians should be put on one plane and stay in the air till they agree to sort out this mess and if they don’t the plane will run out of fuel and just crash and we alll live happily ever after….how is that for a scenario??

    5. Sorry, but that is quite unrealistic. Cheney and Bush had their chance with Syria, but their failures in Iraq and Afghanistan said a lot. Now imagine war with both of them, which are allies and have strategic proxies across the Middle East. The American economy was screwed by those two expensive wars. Iran alone is far more formidable than Iraq and Afghanistan put together, both of which were wounded by countless wars by the time the Americans and Brits entered.

      Most likely scenarios involve revolution in Egypt and possibly Jordan, an empowered Hamas joining Hezbollah, and a new Israeli-Lebanese war that draws in Syria and Iran and possibly a newly Islamist Egypt. Obama being the liberal that he is, will hesitate to interfere, knowing full well that the economy is too weak to risk such a pointless conflict, and that Iran has the potential to take down the entire Middle East and its regimes with it should it go down, which it probably will in the event of war with the US.

      Turkey is joining an economic and strategic alliance with Syria and Iran, and its ties with Israel have been severely strained. Turkey backstabbing Syria does not seem an option while Erdogan is still in power. It would probably be opposed to any war in the region in its current state, which will cause the United States to strain relations with yet another ally.

      Furthermore, the legitimate government includes Hezbollah, like it or not. The Shiites make up almost a third of the population. A more likely scenario is the Shiites seceding and forming a puppet state for Syria and Iran under Hezbollah, much like Hamas and Gaza.

  9.  Avatar

    A sticky situation, indeed!
    Here is the scenario may come, duration 6-9 months
    HA will take control of gov.
    No violence will take place at 1st, but few will die
    West ask HA and Syria to surrender the accused of killers of Rafic Hariri
    They would refuse.
    Leb, gov. can’t act or change the situation
    The West will issue warning through UN that US and NATO would hit hard militarily. Turkey can be a key since they are NATO too!
    Then a military strike happens, but no avail.
    Another warning would be issued that suggest international troops would enter Lebanon to remove HA and supporter and restore leg. gov.
    Syria and Iran would be outraged, Arab will keep silence
    Troops will enter country from the North- and start the removal of HA
    HA would start shelling Israel for retaliation. US tell Syria to stay out or help, if want to survive.
    BEST SCENARIO! any one adds to it or contrary….

    1.  Avatar

      Then you get off the pipe..

    2.  Avatar

      Then you get off the pipe..

    3. I almost agree, but it will take the international community few years before agreeing on sending troops to remove HA becuase the damage and devastation that will hit the country will take us back to the medival ages…this will be worst than another civil war. The troops will not be sent to save Lebanon from HA but to neutralize HA from being a threat to Isreal as a priority and that sucks because no matter how you look at it, it is a lose lose situation for Lebanon. I do not wish HA bad, and I really thing they need to keep their arms but not to use them against us and point them again towards Isreal. We do not have a freakin army, I rather have HA defend us than any other country Arab or non Arab.
      We need to sort out all our problems oursleves and for ourselves because no body wish is good and has good intentions to help us, they all have alterior motives and pretending to help us……All the politicians should be put on one plane and stay in the air till they agree to sort out this mess and if they don’t the plane will run out of fuel and just crash and we alll live happily ever after….how is that for a scenario??

    4. Sorry, but that is quite unrealistic. Cheney and Bush had their chance with Syria, but their failures in Iraq and Afghanistan said a lot. Now imagine war with both of them, which are allies and have strategic proxies across the Middle East. The American economy was screwed by those two expensive wars. Iran alone is far more formidable than Iraq and Afghanistan put together, both of which were wounded by countless wars by the time the Americans and Brits entered.

      Most likely scenarios involve revolution in Egypt and possibly Jordan, an empowered Hamas joining Hezbollah, and a new Israeli-Lebanese war that draws in Syria and Iran and possibly a newly Islamist Egypt. Obama being the liberal that he is, will hesitate to interfere, knowing full well that the economy is too weak to risk such a pointless conflict, ad that Iran has the potential to take down the entire Middle East and its regimes with it should it go down, which it probably will in the event of war with the US.

      Turkey is joining an economic and strategic alliance with Syria and Iran, and its ties with Israel have been severely strained. Turkey backstabbing Syria does not seem an option while Erdogan is still in power. It would probably be opposed to any war in the region in its current state, which will cause the United States to strain relations with yet another ally.

      Furthermore, the legitimate government includes Hezbollah, like it or not. The Shiites make up over a third of the population. A more likely scenario is the Shiites seceding and forming a puppet state for Syria and Iran under Hezbollah, much like Hamas and Gaza.

  10. Let’s see who is going to invite Syria back, ya “Ali Hussein [Jaafar Abbas Haidar, while you’re at it]”. Probably the same people who invited Syria in 1976 then chased it away in 2005 for “killing Hariri”.

    1. totally different situation, this time is final Hizbollah want the country and they will take it temporary

      1. You genius, Hezbollah just wants to govern the Shiite Lebanese. They were the ones to defend and liberate South Lebanon, and they have every right to govern it. The PEOPLE of South Lebanon want Hezbollah.

        The Saudi allies in Lebanon don’t like that and want Hezbollah out by any means necessary. Hezbollah is only defending itself. Kill or be killed, that’s the game.

        1. Theballisround Avatar
          Theballisround

          You are wrong, no one wants to kill Hezbollah here as long as they play by the rule. Everyone was feeling sorry for what happened to the south in 2006, and everyone helped your community at the time. The problem is that HA is forcing itself in in a fascist manner: People feet cheated given that after they revolted against the old system, got massacred in terrorist acts, voted again against having the Syrian hegemony back over lebanon and now they are realising that all what they worked hoped and died for is being annihilated by the force of arms. They also realised that the West betrayed them by allowing the present situation to happen. The winners are not only the Syrians but also the Israelis who now can count on the Syrians to keep HA on a tight leash.

        2. Amine123 Avatar

          Does anyone watch TV and see what is happening to their brothers in Iran? There is one government in Lebanon not two, and if HA will respect Authority then they can coexist, but no their allegance is to Iran and Syria and not to Lebanon which they are destroying it and you will pay the price by living on handout and no future

        3. Amine123 Avatar

          Does anyone watch TV and see what is happening to their brothers in Iran? There is one government in Lebanon not two, and if HA will respect Authority then they can coexist, but no their allegance is to Iran and Syria and not to Lebanon which they are destroying it and you will pay the price by living on handout and no future

  11. Let’s see who is going to invite Syria back, ya “Ali Hussein [Jaafar Abbas Haidar, while you’re at it]”. Probably the same people who invited Syria in 1976 then chased it away in 2005 for “killing Hariri”.

    1. totally different situation, this time is final Hizbollah want the country and they will take it temporary

  12. Let’s see who is going to invite Syria back, ya “Ali Hussein [Jaafar Abbas Haidar, while you’re at it]”. Probably the same people who invited Syria in 1976 then chased it away in 2005 for “killing Hariri”.

    1. totally different situation, this time is final Hizbollah want the country and they will take it temporary

      1. You genius, Hezbollah just wants to govern the Shiite Lebanese. They were the ones to defend and liberate South Lebanon, and they have every right to govern it. The PEOPLE of South Lebanon want Hezbollah.

        The Saudi allies in Lebanon don’t like that and want Hezbollah out by any means necessary. Hezbollah is only defending itself. Kill or be killed, that’s the game.

        1.  Avatar

          You are wrong, no one wants to kill Hezbollah here as long as they play by the rule. Everyone was feeling sorry for what happened to the south in 2006, and everyone helped your community at the time. The problem is that HA is forcing itself in in a fascist manner: People feet cheated given that after they revolted against the old system, got massacred in terrorist acts, voted again against having the Syrian hegemony back over lebanon and now they are realising that all what they worked hoped and died for is being annihilated by the force of arms. They also realised that the West betrayed them by allowing the present situation to happen. The winners are not only the Syrians but also the Israelis who now can count on the Syrians to keep HA on a tight leash.

        2.  Avatar

          You are wrong, no one wants to kill Hezbollah here as long as they play by the rule. Everyone was feeling sorry for what happened to the south in 2006, and everyone helped your community at the time. The problem is that HA is forcing itself in in a fascist manner: People feet cheated given that after they revolted against the old system, got massacred in terrorist acts, voted again against having the Syrian hegemony back over lebanon and now they are realising that all what they worked hoped and died for is being annihilated by the force of arms. They also realised that the West betrayed them by allowing the present situation to happen. The winners are not only the Syrians but also the Israelis who now can count on the Syrians to keep HA on a tight leash.

        3.  Avatar

          Does anyone watch TV and see what is happening to their brothers in Iran? There is one government in Lebanon not two, and if HA will respect Authority then they can coexist, but no their allegance is to Iran and Syria and not to Lebanon which they are destroying it and you will pay the price by living on handout and no future

      2. You genius, Hezbollah just wants to govern the Shiite Lebanese. They were the ones to defend and liberate South Lebanon, and they have every right to govern it. The PEOPLE of South Lebanon want Hezbollah.

        The Saudi allies in Lebanon don’t like that and want Hezbollah out by any means necessary. Hezbollah is only defending itself. Kill or be killed, that’s the game.

    2. totally different situation, this time is final Hizbollah want the country and they will take it temporary

  13. don’t you know the evil has 2 faces !!! those are the sons of Satan them and Hizb al Chayating, Look at the Mullah in Iran and Lebanon , son of Satans all of them ,not easy to take the evil, it took 55 millions to get rid of Hitler. It will take 2 millions killed in Syria when the civil war brake ( hopefully very soon) to finish with the Assad’s satanism.
    Look forward for the prophecy Isaiah 17:1 — The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap

  14. don’t you know the evil has 2 faces !!! those are the sons of Satan them and Hizb al Chayating, Look at the Mullah in Iran and Lebanon , son of Satans all of them ,not easy to take the evil, it took 55 millions to get rid of Hitler. It will take 2 millions killed in Syria when the civil war brake ( hopefully very soon) to finish with the Assad’s satanism.
    Look forward for the prophecy Isaiah 17:1 — The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap

  15. Amine123 Avatar

    he should face the same destiny as Saddam, hanged from his neck infront of the syrian people because the ruling party in Syria are much brutal than Saddam and Ahmednijad

  16. Amine123 Avatar

    he should face the same destiny as Saddam, hanged from his neck infront of the syrian people because the ruling party in Syria are much brutal than Saddam and Ahmednijad

  17.  Avatar

    he should face the same destiny as Saddam, hanged from his neck infront of the syrian people because the ruling party in Syria are much brutal than Saddam and Ahmednijad

  18. PROPHET.T Avatar

    Does any one remember Jumblat saying about a year ago, that He wanted to make up with Syria ,so he would not have to invite them back in with their troupes?

  19. PROPHET.T Avatar

    Does any one remember Jumblat saying about a year ago, that He wanted to make up with Syria ,so he would not have to invite them back in with their troupes?

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