Can’t win an election , no problem. Dissolve the parliament

By Sami Haddad

Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab is reportedly preparing a parliamentary petition to dissolve the parliament after Hezbollah failed to get its candidate Suleiman Franjieh elected as the new president according to Lebanese media reports

Bou Saab promposed the idea several months ago following the deadlock over presidential election .

“Not so fast” commented Ali Alsharkasy adding:

1- The current parliament was elected for a four year term in May 2022 , so it has roughly two more years before its term ends

2- According to the constitution, the parliamentary petition requires the signatures of ten MPs.

3- It would need the approval of two-thirds of parliament’s members

4- It would also eventually need the approval of two-thirds of the cabinet

It is the constitution stupid !

Many politicians in Lebanon continue to blame the parliament for failing to elect a president

MP Bou Saab who was elected as a member of the Free Patriotic Movement is now closely allied with Hezbollah and its Speaker Nabih Berri and has been promoting the election of Franjieh and warning against the election of Army General Joseph Aoun, since this violates the constitution.

He has been insisting that calling for a new parliamentary election  is his idea and not that of his boss , Speaker ( Nabih Berri ) and continues to insist that he was the one who told Berri to begin considering early parliamentary elections should the current parliament fail to elect a president.”

He also said :

“Speaker Berri did not object to my idea”

Bou Saab reportedly and according to Lebanese media has a problem with FPM leader Gebran Bassil and is reportedly planning to split from FPM and form his own version of the group by brining in back the disenchanted members that left the organization .

Bou Saab has reportedly been greatly influenced by his boss , Speaker Berri and has been gradually shifting his allegiance to the Shiite duo.

The shifting reportedly surfaced last February when he declared that he is willing to vote for Franjieh.

In the last presidential election he went against the demands made by Bassil . He did not vote for Franjieh nor Jihad Azour , instead he reportedly wasted his vote on Ziad Baroud who until now has not been a candidate

According to analysts Bou Saab has it all wrong about having new parliamentary election 

One analyst told me : ” It is the Constitution stupid “, you can’t blame the parliament for the flawed parliamentary election system. 

Former US president Clinton coined the phrase ” it is the economy Stupid “when he campaigned against former President Bush .

The phrase became very popular when the Democratic Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas defeated incumbent Republican President George H. W. Bush in 1992

Flawed election system 

Lebanon’s presidential election system has come under scrutiny in recent years due to its inherent flaws and the potential for undemocratic outcomes. 

The current system, which requires a candidate to secure a two-thirds majority in the first round, often leads to situations where even a candidate with the support of 65 % of the parliament in the first round may fail to secure victory. It is imperative to reconsider this system and explore alternative approaches to ensure a fair and representative electoral process.

In the most recent election the candidate of the opposition , former minister Jihad Azour secured 59 votes of the 128 member parliament in the first round while his opponent the Hezbollah and Amal backed candidate secured 51 votes . At the end of the first round the MPs of Hezbollah and its allies and their candidate walked out of the parliament and declared victory . The speaker who is a very close ally of Hezbollah decided to end the election session. This scenario could have repeated itself if Franjieh was in the lead . The Lebanese election system is therefore to blame and not the parliament.

According to analysts the current presidential election system in Lebanon is in dire need of reform. The existing two-thirds majority requirement in the first round, coupled with the potential quorum issues in the second round, has resulted in undemocratic outcomes and a lack of faith in the process. By adopting the “half plus one” system in the first round, Lebanon can move towards a more representative and inclusive electoral process, ensuring that the will of the majority prevails. It is crucial for the Lebanese lawmakers to address these concerns and work towards a fairer presidential election system that upholds the principles of democracy and strengthens public trust in their democratic institutions.

Amending article 49 of the constitution is the key to fair elections 

In conclusion, Instead of calling for new parliamentary election , Bou Saab should urge Berri to call for a session to amend Lebanon’s current flawed presidential election system as per article 49 of the constitution

The “half plus one” system in the first round is currently being used to elect a Speaker and designate the Prime Minister , why should it be any different for the president ?