Developed countries suffered the most from coronavirus: Dr. Ghassan Karam explains why

By Dr Ghassan Karam

What explains the fact that the Coronavirus has inflicted more sufferings among the developed countries? Two things: Av. age and Tuberculosis vaccine.

This is the final and definitive iteration of my attempt to explain as convincingly as possible the fact that a virus is an equal opportunity harm giver. It is not influenced by Race, and wealth.

The highest death rates by far, have taken place among industrial countries that have easier access to all resources than their developing counterparts , a fact that is exactly the opposite of what common sense would have suggested.

A simple scatter diagram in logarithmic scale established that the outcome of this pandemic conform closely to the above expectation.The log graph of GDP per capita in nominal terms against death rates for about the 60 countries with the greatest coronavirus casualties showed very clearly a linear positive relationship; the death rate increased substantially for countries with a relatively high GDP per capita.

Once the data corroborated the expectations we had to find an explanation for such totally unanticipated results. We settled on two possible explanations. WHO, CDC and other such healthcare institutions kept on warning older people to be more cautious since most of the victims of the virus were over the age of 60. It was also suggested that many of the younger people who get infected experience often mild reactions only. These common and popular characteristics of the potential victims led us to test the relationship between the death rate and age. Data about average age of the population for a 102 countries was collected As one might expect it became obvious that in practically each developed country the average age was in the low 40″4 while in most developing countries it was in high 20’2 and low 30’s. Some countries, essentially African ones, had an average age in the high teens. This was enough evidence to convince us that this variable should be subjected to more rigorous testing. That we did by choosing age as a variable. The other prospect was that of whether a country has universal Tuberculosis vaccination program? A quick look at a world map made it obvious that probably the association between BCG and death rates in industrial countries is worthy of being also rigorously tested. The Tuberculosis map indicated that only 18 countries have either never had a universal vaccination requirement or did at one time but they no longer do. The countries that had no Tuberculosis vaccination were those of North America, most of Western Europe, Sweden, Israel, Ecuador and Australia. All other had universal Tuberculosis vaccination requirements.

At this stage we were ready to crunch the data. We decided to apply a Multiple regression analysis on the data using a Dummy variable where D=1 for countries with no BCG and D=0

 otherwise.

Results:

Y= a + bD + cA        

Y: deathrate per 100,000 population from Johns Hopkins as of 4/8/2020

a: constant

D: dummy as described above

A: av. demographic age per country

b and c coefficients

Data for 102 countries

Y = 6.9 D +0.076 A -1.9

When D=1    Y = 5 +0.076 A If an A=40 is used the Death rate for countries that do not use BCG= 8.04

When D=0   Y= 0.076 A-1.9 If A=30 is applied then the Death rate for all other countries (Use BCG) = 0.38

Conclusion:The ultimate results are almost identical with those obtained yesterday , prior, to adding the age variable except for the fact that this is a superior explanation of the deathrate premium exercised on industrial countries.

It is hugely important not to think of the above as a model to be applied to individual countries since each of the 102 countries war represented only by a set of 3 variables. This model attempts to explain rationally whether the actual deathrate experiences so far, in this pandemic is influenced by BCG and age. The answer appears to be a strong affirmative one. Note that the absence( none use of BCG) of universal Tuberculosis vaccine increases the death rate by almost 4 in a 100,000 population in an older country. It is also clear that as Age increases so does the death rate; every 13 years age increment increase the death rate by 10 for every million all other things being equal.

We should add at this stage that if the above death rates are applied to the global population then the outcome would be only 2000 above the actual results as of yesterday. Countries with no BCg and an average age of 40 number about 810 million; 810 x 80 = 65,124 deaths while all the rest: 7000 x 3.8= 26600.Total deaths: 91,724!!!!

Average age

Country/Territory	Rank	Median (Years)	Male (Years)	Female  (Years)
Afghanistan	208	18.9	18.8	18.9
Albania	95	32.9	31.6	34.3
Algeria	136	28.1	27.8	28.4
American Samoa	122	25.5	25.1	26.0
Andorra	10	44.3	44.4	44.1
Angola	214	15.9	15.4	16.3
Anguilla	79	34.8	32.9	36.7
Antigua and Barbuda	102	31.9	30.0	33.5
Argentina	105	31.7	30.5	32.9
Armenia	80	35.1	33.3	36.9
Aruba	55	39.3	37.5	41.1
Australia	58	38.7	37.9	39.5
Austria	13	44.0	42.8	45.1
Azerbaijan	107	31.3	29.8	33.0
The Bahamas	100	32.0	30.9	33.2
Bahrain	99	32.3	33.8	29.5
Bangladesh	148	26.7	26.0	27.3
Barbados	59	38.6	37.5	39.8
Belarus	51	40.0	37.1	43.1
Belgium	39	41.4	40.2	42.7
Belize	177	22.7	22.5	22.9
Benin	216	18.2	17.9	18.6
Bermuda	17	43.4	41.5	45.3
Bhutan	144	27.6	28.2	27.1
Bolivia	162	24.3	23.6	25.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina	32	42.1	40.5	43.5
Botswana	170	24.5	23.5	25.6
Brazil	103	32.6	31.1	32.8
British Virgin Islands	72	36.5	36.3	36.6
Brunei	116	30.2	29.7	30.7
Bulgaria	21	42.7	40.9	44.7
Burkina Faso	221	17.3	17.1	17.4
Burma	128	28.2	27.4	29.0
Burundi	224	17.0	16.8	17.3
Cabo Verde	156	25.4	24.6	26.2
Cambodia	157	25.3	24.6	26.0
Cameroon	210	18.5	18.4	18.7
Canada	29	42.2	40.9	43.5
Cayman Islands	52	40.0	39.3	40.7
Central African Republic	195	19.7	19.4	20.0
Chad	219	17.8	16.8	18.8
Chile	85	34.4	33.2	35.6
China	67	37.4	36.5	38.4
Colombia	120	30.0	29.0	31.0
Comoros	196	19.9	19.2	20.5
Democratic Republic of the Congo	211	18.6	18.3	18.8
Republic of the Congo	193	19.7	19.5	19.8
Cook Islands	74	36.5	36.0	37.0
Costa Rica	108	31.3	30.8	31.8
Cote d’Ivoire	187	20.9	21.0	20.9
Croatia	19	43.0	41.1	45.0
Cuba	37	41.5	40.1	42.6
Curacao	73	36.1	33.5	39.7
Cyprus	68	36.8	35.5	38.3
Czech Republic	33	42.1	40.8	43.4
Denmark	30	42.2	41.2	43.2
Djibouti	167	23.9	22.1	25.3
Dominica	89	33.5	33.0	34.0
Dominican Republic	137	28.1	27.9	28.3
Ecuador	143	27.7	27.0	28.4
Egypt	165	23.9	23.6	24.2
El Salvador	147	27.1	25.6	28.6
Equatorial Guinea	197	19.8	19.3	20.3
Eritrea	201	19.7	19.2	20.1
Estonia	22	42.7	39.4	46.1
Eswatini (Swaziland)	182	21.7	21.5	21.9
Ethiopia	218	17.9	17.7	18.1
EU	20	42.9	41.5	44.3
Faroe Islands	64	37.6	37.1	38.3
Fiji	129	28.9	28.7	29.1
Finland	26	42.5	40.9	44.3
France	40	41.4	39.6	43.1
French Polynesia	106	31.9	31.7	32.1
Gabon	209	18.6	18.4	18.8
The Gambia	188	21.0	20.7	21.3
Palestine (Gaza)[disambiguation needed]	225	17.2	16.8	17.5
Georgia	60	38.1	35.3	40.9
Germany	3	47.1	46.0	48.2
Ghana	184	21.1	20.6	21.6
Gibraltar	81	34.7	33.8	35.7
Greece	6	44.5	43.5	45.6
Greenland	86	33.9	35.0	32.7
Grenada	109	31.5	31.5	31.6
Guam	111	29.0	28.3	29.7
Guatemala	180	22.1	21.4	22.8
Guernsey	14	43.8	42.5	45.1
Guinea-Bissau	191	20.1	19.7	20.6
Guinea	205	18.9	18.7	19.1
Guyana	151	26.2	25.9	26.6
Haiti	174	23.0	22.7	23.2
Honduras	175	23.0	22.6	23.3
Hong Kong	8	44.4	43.5	45.0
Hungary	28	42.3	40.4	44.3
Iceland	70	36.5	35.9	37.1
India	141	28.1	27.2	28.6
Indonesia	117	30.2	29.6	30.8
Iran	123	30.3	30.0	30.5
Iraq	192	20.0	19.8	20.3
Ireland	69	36.8	36.4	37.1
Isle of Man	11	44.2	43.3	44.9
Israel	119	29.9	29.3	30.6
Italy	5	45.5	44.4	46.5
Jamaica	152	26.0	25.5	26.5
Japan	2	47.3	46.0	48.7
Jersey	62	38.0	36.3	40.7
Jordan	178	22.5	22.9	22.0
Kazakhstan	112	30.6	29.3	31.9
Kenya	199	19.7	19.6	19.9
Kiribati	159	24.6	23.8	25.5
North Korea	87	34.0	32.5	35.6
South Korea	36	41.8	40.2	43.4
Kosovo	127	29.1	28.8	29.5
Kuwait	124	29.3	30.4	27.4
Kyrgyzstan	149	26.5	25.4	27.6
Laos	172	23.0	22.7	23.3
Latvia	16	43.6	39.7	46.9
Lebanon	118	30.5	29.9	31.1
Lesotho	163	24.2	24.2	24.2
Liberia	212	17.8	17.5	18.0
Libya	130	28.9	29.1	28.7
Liechtenstein	18	43.2	41.7	44.5
Lithuania	15	43.7	39.7	47.1
Luxembourg	54	39.3	38.7	39.9
Macau	56	39.3	39.5	39.1
North Macedonia	65	37.9	36.8	39.0
Madagascar	200	19.7	19.5	19.9
Malawi	227	16.5	16.4	16.7
Malaysia	131	28.5	28.2	28.8
Maldives	138	28.2	28.1	28.3
Mali	228	15.8	15.1	16.4
Malta	35	41.8	40.8	43.0
Marshall Islands	173	22.9	22.8	23.0
Mauritania	190	20.5	19.5	21.4
Mauritius	77	35.3	34.2	36.3
Mexico	133	28.3	27.2	29.4
Federated States of Micronesia	158	25.1	24.4	25.8
Moldova	71	36.7	34.9	38.6
Monaco	1	53.1	51.7	54.5
Mongolia	135	28.3	27.5	29.2
Montenegro	45	40.7	39.9	41.8
Montserrat	94	33.2	32.6	33.7
Morocco	125	29.3	28.6	29.9
Mozambique	222	17.2	16.6	17.8
Namibia	185	21.2	20.4	21.9
Nauru	150	26.4	27.0	25.7
Nepal	166	24.1	22.8	25.3
Netherlands	24	42.6	41.5	43.6
New Caledonia	101	32.0	31.3	32.7
New Zealand	63	37.9	37.1	38.8
Nicaragua	154	25.7	24.8	26.6
Nigeria	213	18.4	18.3	18.5
Niger	230	15.4	15.3	15.5
Northern Mariana Islands	93	33.6	32.8	34.4
Norway	57	39.2	38.4	40.0
Oman	153	25.6	26.6	24.2
Pakistan	168	23.8	23.7	23.8
Palau	88	33.4	32.7	35.0
Panama	126	29.2	28.8	29.6
Papua New Guinea	171	23.1	23.2	23.1
Paraguay	139	28.2	28.0	28.5
Peru	140	28.0	27.2	28.8
Philippines	169	23.5	23.1	24.0
Poland	46	40.7	39.0	42.4
Portugal	31	42.2	40.2	44.4
Puerto Rico	38	41.5	39.5	43.2
Qatar	90	33.2	34.3	28.1
Romania	42	41.1	39.7	42.6
Russia	53	39.6	36.6	42.5
Rwanda	203	19.0	18.3	19.8
Saint Barthelemy	12	44.1	44.1	44.2
Saint Helena, Ascension, and Tristan da Cunha	34	41.9	42.0	41.9
Saint Kitts and Nevis	82	35.0	35.2	34.8
Saint Lucia	84	34.8	33.7	36.0
Saint Martin	98	32.5	31.6	33.4
Saint Pierre and Miquelon	4	46.5	46.0	47.0
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	91	33.6	33.8	33.4
Samoa	164	24.4	24.1	24.6
San Marino	9	44.4	43.3	45.4
Sao Tome and Principe	215	18.4	18.0	18.8
Saudi Arabia	145	27.5	28.2	26.7
Senegal	207	18.8	18.0	19.7
Serbia	25	42.6	40.9	44.3
Seychelles	76	35.4	34.9	36.0
Sierra Leone	204	19.0	18.4	19.6
Singapore	83	34.6	34.5	34.7
Sint Maarten	43	41.0	39.9	42.0
Slovakia	49	40.5	38.8	42.3
Slovenia	7	44.5	42.8	46.2
Solomon Islands	179	22.5	22.3	22.8
Somalia	217	18.1	18.3	17.9
South Africa	146	27.1	26.9	27.3
South Sudan	223	17.3	17.2	17.5
Spain	23	42.7	41.5	43.9
Sri Lanka	96	32.8	31.5	34.0
Sudan	198	19.9	19.7	20.1
Suriname	121	29.8	29.4	30.2
Sweden	41	41.2	40.2	42.2
Switzerland	27	42.4	41.4	43.4
Syria	161	24.3	23.9	24.8
Taiwan	47	40.7	40.0	41.5
Tajikistan	160	24.5	23.9	25.1
Tanzania	220	17.7	17.5	18.0
Thailand	66	37.7	36.6	38.7
East Timor	206	18.9	18.3	19.6
Togo	194	19.8	19.5	20.1
Tonga	176	23.0	22.5	23.4
Trinidad and Tobago	75	36.0	35.6	36.6
Tunisia	97	31.6	31.0	32.2
Turkey	110	30.9	30.5	31.4
Turkmenistan	142	27.9	27.5	28.4
Turks and Caicos Islands	92	33.3	33.6	33.0
Tuvalu	155	25.7	24.7	26.9
Uganda	229	15.8	15.7	15.9
Ukraine	48	40.6	37.4	43.7
United Arab Emirates	113	30.3	32.1	25.0
United Kingdom	50	40.5	39.3	41.7
United States	61	38.1	36.8	39.4
Uruguay	78	35.0	33.1	36.7
Uzbekistan	132	28.6	28.0	29.2
Vanuatu	181	22.0	21.6	22.4
Venezuela	134	28.3	27.6	29.0
Vietnam	114	30.5	29.4	31.7
Virgin Islands	44	41.0	39.9	41.9
Wallis and Futuna	104	32.2	31.3	33.4
Palestine (West Bank)[disambiguation needed]	186	21.1	20.9	21.3
Western Sahara	183	21.1	20.9	21.3
World	115	30.4	29.6	31.1
Yemen	202	19.5	19.3	19.6
Zambia	226	16.8	16.6	16.9
Zimbabwe	189	20.0	19.6	20.4