Erdogan’s defeat in Istanbul could be the beginning of the end of his rule in Turkey

The previous result was annulled after protests from Erdogan‘s Islamist-rooted AK Party, which said there had been widespread voting irregularities. The decision to re-run the vote was criticised by Western allies and caused uproar among domestic opponents who said Turkey‘s democracy was under threat.

On Sunday, tens of thousands of Imamoglu supporters celebrated in the streets of Istanbul after the former businessman triumphed over Erdogan’s handpicked candidate by almost 800,000 votes.

“In this city today, you have fixed democracy. Thank you Istanbul,” Imamoglu told supporters who made heart signs with their hands, in an expression of the inclusive election rhetoric that has been the hallmark of his campaigning.

“We came to embrace everyone,” Imamoglu said. “We will build democracy in this city, we will build justice. In this beautiful city, I promise, we will build the future.”

The High Electoral Board has yet to announce the formal results, but Erdogan has already congratulated Imamoglu for his victory and Imamoglu’s rival, Binali Yildirim, of the ruling AK Party wished him luck as mayor barely two hours after polls closed.

Waning support

Erdogan has ruled Turkey since 2003, first as prime minister and then as president, becoming the country’s most dominant politician since its founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, nearly a century ago.

His AK Party has strong support among pious and conservative Turks, and its stewardship of Turkey’s economy through a decade and a half of construction-fuelled growth helped Erdogan win more than a dozen national and local elections.

But economic recession and a financial crisis have eroded that support, and Erdogan’s ever-tighter control over government has alarmed some voters.

Imamoglu won support even in the traditionally pious Istanbul districts, once known as AK Party strongholds, ending the 25-year-long Islamist rule in the country’s largest city.

“This re-run (election) was one to put an end to the dictatorship,” Gulcan Demirkaya, a 48-year-old housewife in Istanbul’s AKP-leaning Kagithane district, told Reuters news agency.

“God willing, I would like to see him as the president in five years’ time. The one-man rule should come to an end,” she added.

‘Beginning of the end’

“Erdogan’s party dominates the media in Turkey today, and it gave far more time to his candidate than to the opposition candidate in the newspapers and on the television and radio,” said FRANCE 24’s correspondent Jasper Mortimer, reporting from Istanbul.

“Despite these advantages, Erdogan’s candidate lost by nine percentage points,” Mortimer said, adding: “For Erdogan’s rule in Turkey, this may be the beginning of the end.”

The results are likely to trigger a new chapter in Turkish politics, with the country’s top three cities now held by the opposition, and could trigger cracks within Erdogan’s AK Party, while bringing the economic troubles more to the centre.

“This is definitely going to have an impact on the future of Turkish politics given the margin of victory. It’s an alarming sign for the AKP establishment,” said Sinan Ulgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels and former Turkish diplomat.

Analysts say the loss could set off a cabinet reshuffle in Ankara and adjustments to foreign policy. It could even trigger a national election earlier than 2023 as scheduled, although the leader of the AKP’s nationalist ally played down that prospect.

“Turkey should now return to its real agenda, the election process should close,” MHP party leader Devlet Bahceli said. “Talking of an early election would be among the worst things that can be done to our country.”

(FRANCE 24 with REUTERS)