A War Between Iran and Israel. It’s Only a Matter of Time

israel-missile- IRANBY ELLIOTT ABRAMS
In the United States, discussions of Iran have for the last few years been mostly about the JCPOA—the nuclear deal negotiated by President Obama.

In the Middle East, things are different.

This is because while we have been debating, Iran has been acting. And Israel has been reacting.

Israel has struck sites in Syria one hundred times in the last five years, bombing when it saw an Iranian effort to move high-tech materiel to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Last month Israel bombed the so-called Scientific Studies and Researchers Center in Masyaf, a city in central Syria, a military site where chemical weapons and precision bombs were said to be produced.

Now, there are reports that Iran is planning to build a military airfield near Damascus, where the IRGC (Revolutionary Guards) could build up their presence and operate.

And that Iran and the Assad regime are negotiating over giving Iran its own naval pier in the port of Tartus.

And that Iran may actually deploy a division of soldiers in Syria.

Such developments would be unacceptable to Israel, and it will convey this message to Russia and to the United States. Russia’s defense minister will soon visit Israel, after which Israel’s defense minister will visit Washington.

Previous Israeli efforts to get Putin to stop Iran (during Netanyahu’s four visits to Moscow in the last year) have failed, which suggests that Israel will need to do so itself, alone—unless the new Iran policy being debated inside the Trump administration leads the United States to seek ways to stop the steady expansion of Iran’s military presence and influence in the Middle East.

ISAREL IRAN WAR SCENARIOSThat remains to be seen. Rumors suggest that the Trump administration may label the IRGC a terrorist group, which could open the door to using counter-terrorism authorities to stop its expansion.

Whatever the debate over the JCPOA (the agreement between the P5+1+EU and Iran on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action ) , there may well be a broader consensus in the administration that Iran’s growing military role in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere in the region must be countered.

Whatever the American conclusion, if Iran does indeed plan to establish a large and permanent military footprint in Syria—complete with permanent naval and air bases and a major ground force—Israel will have fateful decisions to make.

Such an Iranian presence on the Mediterranean and on Israel’s border would change the military balance in the region and fundamentally change Israel’s security situation.

And under the JCPOA as agreed by Obama, remember, limits on Iran’s nuclear program begin to end in only 8 years, Iran may now perfect its ICBM program, and there are no inspections of military sites where further nuclear weapons research may be underway.

As Sen. Tom Cotton said recently, “If Iran doesn’t have a covert nuclear program today, it would be the first time in a generation.”

Israel could be a decade away from a situation where Iran has nuclear weapons and has bases in Syria—and could logically therefore even place nuclear weapons in Syria, just miles from Israel’s border.

Fishman, the dean of Israel’s military correspondents, writes that “If the Israeli diplomatic move fails to bear fruit, we [Israel] are headed toward a conflict with the Iranians.”

That conclusion, and the Iranian moves that make it a growing possibility, should be on the minds of Trump administration officials as they contemplate a new policy toward Iran’s ceaseless drive for power in the Middle East.

Elliott Abrams is senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington, DC. He served as deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security advisor in the administration of President George W. Bush, where he supervised U.S. policy in the Middle East for the White House.

NEWSWEEK

  • יוסף בן-ישראל
    • Omega

      I know your ilk never respects rules but this is an English speaking site.

      Link 1: Hezbollah is a threat to the US and the ME. Last time I checked, Hezbollah fought ISIS. The same ISIS that apologized to IsraHell.

      Lonk 2: You lost in 2006 with your IAF, IDF and 15,000+ army reserve troops against 3,000 disciplined Hezbollah soldiers and you will lose again.

      • Hannibal

        You missed a point Omega… This time around HA will free Galilee.

  • Rascal

    Sadly something needs to break before it can be fixed.
    Fighting with Israel seems to be a national obsession of the Iranian leadership. So much so that Iran is doing everything it can to encroach on Israel for the last 38 years. There is only one thing left to do and that is the open deceleration of war. The next one will not just be confined to Lebanon and the Hezbminions, Iran will most certainly be the head of the snake with the Iranian occupation groups like the party of god, being the tail. It will all need to be cut up to end the Iranian obsession. Iran will soon get the Armageddon it has been pushing for.

  • Omega

    The slimy Talmudic Jewish elite of America drive the US’ wars. [Personal note: it’s done for their masters in Britian.] This reality was depicted by former counter-terrorism and military intelligence for the CIA, Philip Giraldi.

    America’s Jews Are Driving America’s Wars
    http://www.unz.com/pgiraldi/americas-jews-are-driving-americas-wars/

    Giraldi also asserted that Cheney was planning an attack on Iran (after a second 9/11 in the US) using ground penetrating mini-nukes. Iran’s military assets being deep underground.

    But that is not the point. How, exactly, does IsraHell intend to take on Iran alone – when it could not destroy Hezbollah in 2006 with their IAF, IDF and 15,000+ of its army reserve?

    IsraHell can do jack against Iran and they know it. They have demonized and lied about Iran for the past twenty years and continue doing so in the hope that the US does their dirty job – like they did in Iraq.

    May Iran obliterate IsraHell once and for all. The word will finally see the light.

  • Hind Abyad

    Only Zionists articles on YaLibnan? How funny ;-)))

    ‘Elliott Abrams is senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington, DC. He served as deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security advisor in the administration of President George W. Bush, where he supervised U.S. policy in the Middle East for the White House.’

    “Schumer: I’m on a Mission From God (to Be Israel’s Guardian in Senate)

    Elliot Abrams, a national security adviser to George W. Bush, told the Zionist Organization of America on April 25 that “I believe Israel will act, and I hope the U.S. will.”

    Steve Rosen, the former AIPAC guru, now an aide to Daniel Pipes — who runs a racist website about Arabs and Muslims — told the same group:

    The majority of Americans support force on Iran, yet there’s a taboo against saying we must force them now…The U.S. would be more efficient than Israel at suppressing Iran. We have to have the ability to stare directly into the light bulb.
    As usual, Rosen talks in code.

    “Stare directly into the light bulb.” Maybe he means mushroom cloud, which has
    a similar shape.

    At this point, it appears to be only the formerly indicted (Rosen for espionage, Abrams for lying to Congress — though only Abrams was convicted) who are pushing for a US attack rather than an Israeli one. The other neocons still are eager to get their war on but they want Israel to do the job.

    For them, war is a game and they want their guys to vanquish the other team.
    I mean, a Redskins fan may get some pleasure if the San Francisco 49ers crush the Dallas Cowboys, but it’s infinitely more awesome when their beloved Redskins do it.

    But watch this space. Steve Rosen and Elliot Abrams are key neocon and lobby figures (despite their embarrassing past lives). And they are very persuasive.
    We’ll see what happens.

    Meanwhile, the Israel-can-do-no-wrong faction, which normally dismisses Israel’s critics as irrelevant, are becoming increasingly strident.”
    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/mj-rosenberg/schumer-im-on-a-mission-f_b_560091.html

    • Omega

      Quite normal, it’s YaHoudiWahhabi, not Libnan. 😉

      • Hind Abyad

        “Israeli troops may once again march upon Beirut, and this time see every important member of Hezbollah executed or buried under a prison. (It’s extremely unlikely, but it’s conceivable.) It may then have total sway over Lebanon and untrammeled access to all its natural resources (including the coveted Litani River).

        Israel may never have to give the Palestinians freedom, restitution, or peace. And it may never have to give up any of its territorial spoils of war: the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, East Jerusalem, or the Golan Heights. Golan’s “places to build,” its “strategic plateau,” its “prize apples,” and its “vast playground” spaces may be Israel’s until the end of mankind.

        But if that end is a decade from now — or a day — will it really be worth it?”

    • Rudy1947

      Of course they are . Within minutes you, Omega and Handfullofbull make a Lebanese article a Zionist issue. So yeah, they’re only Zionist articles.
      Edit: I was in error. You are not the only one.

      • Hind Abyad

        It is not a Lebanese article it is a Zionist issue…….
        YaLibnan take Lebanese for uneducated imbeciles suckers,

        Israel and their bloody Wars are chaos
        In 2014, Oren said this regarding the conflict between the Shiite-led government of Syria and the Sunni extremists overrunning eastern Syria and western Iraq:

        “Lest he be misunderstood, by “Sunni evil” Oren is here specifically referring to ISIS. This is clear, because seconds before, he conveyed his recognition of the fact that they are indeed “bad guys” by referring to a specific mass-execution that ISIS had just committed.
        That is Israel’s position. “Assad must go. We prefer Al Qaeda. Let ISIS prevail.”

        In other words: “To hell with your towers, America. And your big city residents can go to hell too, where they can burn along with the Syrian victims of Al Qaeda and ISIS for all I care. Israel has its own regional strategic goals to think of. Now get back to work to pay your taxes so your government can keep decimating Muslim countries for me and my power clique and keep sending us billions of dollars in foreign aid.”

        This from “America’s greatest friend in the Middle East.”U.S. Politics

        “Since plenty of years the U.S. is de facto run by pro-Israeli Jews either directly, or indirectly through the might of their Jewish lobbies. The Israeli paper Ma’ariv (02.09.1994)