Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is likely to win Alaska’s Senate race, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis, as vote-counting continues in the state.
Peltola has expanded her narrow lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan with each new batch of votes reported this week. A “likely” characterization indicates that the NBC News Decision Desk has at least 95% confidence that Peltola will win the race.
 Mary Peltola | D | 138,240 | 49.8% |
 Dan S. Sullivan Incumbent | R | 127,828 | 46.1% |
 Gerald Heikes | R | 5,885 | 2.1% |
| Total | 277,368 |
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96% expected votes in (Est. remaining 12,000)
Alaska’s is the only remaining 2026 Senate race in which the NBC News Decision Desk has not yet made a projection.
If Peltola wins, Democrats will have a 56-44 majority in the Senate next year.
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