US President Donald Trump speaks next to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during a cabinet meeting in the Cabinet Room at the White House, in Washington, DC, US, May 27, 2026. (photo credit: REUTERS/Evan Vucci)
It’s a de facto motto in the Trump White House: “Somebody’s gotta take the fall.” Lately, that person looks like Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
Why it matters: From the unpopular war in Iran to his bad bipartisan relations with members of Congress, Hegseth’s record has made him the most vulnerable member of Trump’s Cabinet after Tuesday night’s midterm shellacking.
- “Hegseth is definitely on thin ice,” a Trump adviser told Axios. “It doesn’t mean the president forces him out. But there are complications.”
As early as next week, the House could impeach Hegseth for allegedly defying Congress and illegally continuing the U.S. war in Iran.
- The measure is sponsored by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), a vociferous critic of Israel and foreign wars.
Iran is at the center of both Hegseth’s possible impeachment and Republicans’ midterm collapse. Many voters oppose the war and its byproduct: higher gas prices that spiked after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz.
Before Trump attacked Iran on Feb. 28, Hegseth was the most gung-ho about the conflict, and he gave the rosiest projections about how quickly and easily it would be resolved, according to sources familiar with the discussions.
By August, a senior administration official said, U.S. Central Command was reportedly soliciting new approaches to pressure Iran, suggesting that military leaders were still reassessing how to achieve strategic results.
CentCom was also asking: “At what point did Hegseth recognize that our original strategy wasn’t going to produce the outcome he expected and pitched?”- Trump stood by Hegseth on Wednesday, telling reporters that the secretary is “doing a very good job.”
Between the lines: Trump has been known to praise an embattled Cabinet secretary, only to seek their ouster shortly thereafter. With Hegseth, four factors are weighing on Trump:
1. The impeachment threat. Democrats already have tried to impeach Hegseth, and with their new House majority in January, those efforts could intensify. The last thing Trump wants is a series of distracting impeachment hearings focused on Hegseth’s rocky tenure — and, inevitably, Trump’s decision to attack Iran.
- “Tonight would have looked very different without the Iran war,” one administration official told Axios late Tuesday. “I believe you’ll ultimately see POTUS hold Pete Hegseth accountable, and that will play out in the lame duck,” a reference to the period between the midterms and the new Congress’ first day, Jan. 3.
2. Trump needs a scalp. Presidents have a long history of shaking up their administrations after disastrous midterms. George W. Bush notably ousted Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld after the 2006 elections.
- It wouldn’t be surprising to see Trump make a high-profile personnel change after a defeat of this magnitude. Hegseth, whose tenure has been marked by controversy, is one potential target.
- “Somebody’s gotta take the fall, and Pete is moving to the top of the list,” a U.S. official said.
3. The lame-duck window. If Trump is going to replace Hegseth, there’s a compelling reason to do it before January. Confirmations in a Democrat-controlled Senate will be impossible. That gives Trump a narrow window to push through a new defense secretary while Republicans still hold the majority.
- “No one’s getting confirmed” in the new Congress, a senior White House official said. “We’re operating under that premise.”
4. A potential soft landing. There also is a conceivable exit ramp for Hegseth: Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn is about to become that state’e governor, and she will have the power to appoint a replacement to her Senate seat. Hegseth owns a home in Tennessee, giving him a connection there.
- Trump expressed approval for the idea Wednesday: “I actually think he’d be very popular if he did that. But I haven’t heard that at all.”
What they’re saying: Asked about a possible impeachment vote and efforts to remove Hegseth, a spokesperson said the secretary will “not back down or be deterred by politicians seeking to score partisan points or launch phony investigations where no wrongdoing exists.”
- “The Department of War has followed the law and our secretary will continue to stand and fight every single day to support and defend the Constitution, lead our troops, and protect America.”
Trump allies in Congress have asked the administration to get rid of Hegseth, but they acknowledge that even if Democrats captured 55 Senate seats, an effort to remove the secretary probably would fail because it would take 12 more votes in the 100-member chamber.
- “There are some Republican chairs in the Senate who just hate Pete, but that isn’t enough,” an administration official said.
Hegseth critics leaked to Politico that the secretary’s new financial disclosure report showed his wife worked for a consulting firm with Defense Department ties.
- One Hegseth ally called the campaign against the secretary “an op.”
- In a statement, Hegseth’s department said he’s in “full compliance with all ethics laws and regulations … Any insinuations or claims otherwise are ridiculous slander.”
- AXIOS
