Appeasement failed in Hong Kong and Ukraine — Taiwan must not be next
By Vlad Green , OP.ED
China’s repeated assurances that it seeks “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan ring hollow. The world has already seen how Beijing treats its promises—most clearly in Hong Kong, where the “one country, two systems” model was supposed to preserve autonomy, freedoms, and a distinct political system. Instead, it became a blueprint for control, repression, and broken commitments.
The dismantling of Hong Kong’s autonomy sent a powerful and chilling message to Taiwan and the international community: China’s guarantees are conditional, temporary, and ultimately disposable. What was promised as a high degree of self-rule vanished once Beijing decided it was inconvenient. For Taiwan, this was not a warning—it was proof.
As Beijing increases military pressure around Taiwan—through airspace incursions, naval drills, and coercive rhetoric—the concern is no longer hypothetical. Taiwan is a thriving democracy, not a renegade province. Any attempt at forced “unification” would violate international norms, destabilize Asia, and threaten global security.
Recent global events have only worsened the risk. Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrated how authoritarian leaders test boundaries when they believe the cost of aggression will be limited. Likewise, U.S. president Donald Trump’s bullying of Venezuela—through threats, sanctions without strategy, and disregard for sovereignty—has contributed to a dangerous global precedent: might makes right.
These actions risk becoming catalysts for Beijing. If China concludes that territorial aggression or coercion carries few consequences, Taiwan could become the next target of intimidation—or worse.
This is why Taiwan and its allies are right to bolster defenses and seek stronger international support. Deterrence is not provocation; it is prevention. Silence or ambiguity will not preserve peace—it will invite aggression.
The lesson from Hong Kong is clear. The lesson from Ukraine is brutal. The world must not wait for a third example.
China should be told plainly: Taiwan is not Hong Kong. Taiwan is not Ukraine. And Taiwan must be left alone.
