The aftermath of an Israeli airstrike on Beirut.Houssam Shbaro/Anadolu via Getty Images
By: Milan Sehmbi
Lebanon elected General Joseph Aoun, the head of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), as president earlier this month, ending a more than two-year presidential vacuum.
Just days later, Nawaf Salam, who had been serving as the president of the International Court of Justice, was named as prime minister, replacing the Hezbollah-backed caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati.
The moves marked a dramatic shift in Lebanon’s power balance and highlighted the weakened state of Hezbollah, one of the country’s most powerful political players.
Here’s what we know about Lebanon’s shifting political landscape and what it means for Hezbollah.
The political shake-up in Lebanon — which operates a sectarian power-sharing system — comes in the wake of Hezbollah’s costly conflict with Israel.
The group had been exchanging strikes with Israeli forces since October 2023, in the wake of Hamas’ October 7 attacks.
But it was thrown into disarray after Israel killed its longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and wounded thousands of its fighters with exploding pagers and walkie-talkies.
Portraits of longtime Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah,(R) who was assassinated by Israel on September 27, 2024 and his cousin and heir apparent Hashem Safieddine who was assassinated by Israel on October 3, 2024
A cease-fire deal between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah took effect in November.
However, the group was dealt another major blow by the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria the following month. Syria had offered Iran an important pipeline through which it could transfer weapons and supplies to Hezbollah, but the fall of Assad effectively cut this route off.
These events have come as heavy blows to Hezbollah, depleting its resources and diminishing its ability to project its influence into Lebanese politics.
The appointments of Aoun and Salam may further compound Hezbollah’s position.
Aoun was seen as the favored candidate of both the US and Saudi Arabia, which had spent years trying to end Lebanon’s political stalemate.
A rival candidate, Suleiman Franjieh, a friend of Bashar Al Assad and who was preferred by Hezbollah had withdrawn prior to the vote, paving the way for Aoun’s election.
While Aoun could help secure the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon, his forces may present a new obstacle for Hezbollah.
“If the Lebanese army expands its presence into areas formerly controlled by Hezbollah, it will be more challenging for the group to rebuild its capabilities,” said Will Todman, the deputy director and senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
“And if President Aoun alone is credited with securing international funding for reconstruction, it could further the sense that Hezbollah abandoned its constituents during and after the conflict with Israel,” Todman added.
However, Aoun may be reluctant to provoke Hezbollah as he seeks to stabilize a country that has been mired in economic crisis and devastated by Israeli strikes.
“Hezbollah, no doubt, will be sharply watching the new president’s moves in the coming months,” wrote Nicholas Blanford, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs. “Aoun is a pragmatist and is unlikely to provoke a confrontation with Hezbollah that, despite receiving a battering in the recent war, remains domestically powerful and potentially dangerous if it feels threatened.”
While Hezbollah did not oppose Aoun’s nomination, Salam’s appointment as prime minister is said to have angered the group — which had sought to get Mikati reappointed.
Mohammed Raad, a Hezbollah lawmaker, reportedly said the group had taken “a positive step” by helping elect Aoun as president and was “hoping to find that hand extended, only to find it was cut off.”
Salam has committed to implementing a UN Security Council resolution related to the Israeli conflict with Hezbollah that, in part, says Hezbollah should not have an armed presence in Lebanonl.
However, analysts say Salam is unlikely to risk provoking the group too much while he tends to more pressing needs.
“Salam is highly unlikely to juggle his uphill battle to extract Lebanon from near-total collapse while clashing — politically or otherwise — with one of the country’s most powerful factions,” David Daoud, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, said.
For his part, Salam has said that the formation of a new government would not be delayed, that his hands were “extended to everyone,” and that he was committed to starting “a new chapter” in Lebanon “rooted in justice, security, progress, and opportunities,” per Reuters.
People in Lebanon celebrating Aoun’s election .Houssam Shbaro/Anadolu via Getty Images
Aoun and Salam
Aoun joined the LAF in 1983, during the Lebanese Civil War, and he became its commander in 2017. His forces have an important role in maintaining the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah.
Aoun is regarded as a “no-nonsense,” nonpartisan figure who tends to avoid political discussions, the Associated Press reported.
Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official who met Aoun on multiple occasions, told the outlet that the president was a “very sweet man, very compassionate, very warm.”
“He really was viciously nonpartisan, did not have any interest in even delivering speeches or doing media,” Saab said. “He wanted to take care of business, and his only order of business was commanding the Lebanese army.”
Salam became Lebanon’s ambassador to the United Nations in New York in 2007. He held the position for 10 years.
In 2018, he was elected a judge on the ICJ, and he became its president in 2024.
Salam presided over ICJ hearings stemming from South Africa’s allegations that Israel was committing genocide in Gaza.
Nawaf Salam.ANWAR AMRO/AFP via Getty Images
World leaders and officials from around the world have welcomed the appointments of Aoun and Salam.
President Joe Biden said in a statement that he “strongly” believed Aoun was “the right leader for this time.”
“President Aoun will provide critical leadership as Lebanon and Israel fully implement that cessation of hostilities and as hundreds of thousands of people return to their homes and Lebanon recovers and rebuilds,” he said.
The Iranian embassy in Lebanon also welcomed the news, saying it looked forward to working with Aoun to strengthen relations between the two nations.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres took to X to congratulate Salam on being named prime minister.
“The road ahead for Lebanon is filled with promise but also great tests,” he wrote.
In Israel, the news gave rise to mixed reactions.
Israel’s minister of foreign affairs, Gideon Sa’ar, congratulated Lebanon on the appointment of Aoun, but he criticized Salam’s nomination.
“The President of the ICJ, just appointed Prime Minister of Lebanon, has called Israel an enemy,” he wrote. “How can such a person be expected to judge Israel fairly? President Salam’s decisions regarding Israel must be disqualified immediately. Otherwise, they might as well take the ‘J’ out of the ICJ.”
More hopeful future
President Joseph Aoun (R) and UN chief Antonio Guterres during their meeting at the Baabda Palace in Lebanon
United Nations chief Antonio Guterres said Saturday a “more hopeful” future awaits Lebanon after meeting its new leaders in a two-day visit ahead of a deadline for implementing a fragile Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire.
His visit comes amid fresh optimism for crisis-hit Lebanon after a devastating war, as Joseph Aoun was elected president on January 9 and named Nawaf Salam as prime minister-designate following a two-year vacuum.
“Throughout my time here, I have sensed an atmosphere of opportunity,” Guterres told reporters in Beirut after meeting Aoun, Salam and Hezbollah ally parliament speaker Nabih Berri.
“After one of the most difficult years in generations, Lebanon is on the cusp of a more hopeful future.”
On Friday, the UN secretary-general met in Beirut with French President Emmanuel Macron, who said Paris would soon host an aid conference to help rebuild Lebanon.
The United Nations “will intensify our support for recovery and reconstruction across Lebanon”, Guterres said.
“The cessation of hostilities is fragile, but it is holding.”
– ‘Testing our patience’ –
Under the November 27 ceasefire deal, which ended two months of all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese army has 60 days to deploy alongside peacekeepers from the UNIFIL mission in south Lebanon as the Israeli army withdraws.
At the same time, Hezbollah is required to pull its forces north of the Litani River, around 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the border, and dismantle any remaining military infrastructure it has in the south.
Aoun said Israel must withdraw from his country’s south by the January 26 “deadline set by the agreement reached on November 27” to fully implement the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire.
“Israel’s continued violations on land and in the air… blowing up homes and destroying border villages, completely contradicts what was stated in the ceasefire agreement,” a statement from his office said.
His remarks follow a speech by Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem who accused Israel of hundreds of ceasefire violations, warning it against testing “our patience” and calling on the Lebanese state to be “firm” in its response.
Earlier on Saturday, Qassem had called “on the Lebanese state to be firm in confronting violations, now numbering more than hundreds. This cannot continue”.
“We have been patient with the violations to give a chance to the Lebanese state responsible for this agreement, along with the international sponsors, but I call on you not to test our patience,” he said in a televised speech.
– ‘Occupation’ –
Aoun, Lebanon’s former army chief, has vowed to ensure the state will have “a monopoly” on bearing weapons.
Analysts say Hezbollah’s weakening in the war with Israel allowed Lebanon’s deeply divided political class to elect Aoun and to back him in appointing Salam, who was presiding judge at the International Criminal Court, as prime minister.
But Qassem insisted Hezbollah and ally Amal’s backing “is what led to the election of the president by consensus”, after around two years of deadlock.
“No one can exploit the results of the aggression in domestic politics,” he warned. “No one can exclude us from effective and influential political participation in the country.”
On Friday, Guterres had called for Israel to end its military operations and “occupation” in the south.
He also said UN peacekeepers had found more than 100 weapons caches belonging “to Hezbollah or other armed groups”.
Also on Friday, French President Emanuel Macron said there must be “accelerated” implementation of the ceasefire.
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