Baabda presidential chair awaits the new occupant of the palace after president Michel Aoun’s term ended on October 31 , 2022 . The Lebanese parliament failed for the 12th time to elect a president because of the current flawed presidential election system of requiring two-third majority during the first voting and Hezbollah’s insistence that its candidate Suleiman Franjieh should be the new president. Speaker Berri a key allay of Hezbollah refused to hold a parliamentary meeting to elect a president ever since . The election system needs to be reformed to avoid the obstruction of presidential election in the future . Hezbollah delegated Berri to negotiate on its behalf over the presidency.
Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon has prompted a renewed bid by some leading Lebanese politicians to fill a two-year-long presidential vacuum, an effort to revive the paralysed state as it grapples with an escalating conflict.
Lebanon has not had a president or a fully empowered cabinet since October 2022 due to a power struggle in which Hezbollah has played a big part. Along with its allies, the heavily armed Shi’ite Muslim group has insisted the post, reserved for a Maronite Christian, go to their Christian ally Suleiman Frangieh.
With Hezbollah reeling from the killing of its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the presidency came into renewed focus this week when Shi’ite Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a key Hezbollah ally, indicated flexibility on the matter, telling Prime Minister Najib Mikati he supported the election of a president who doesn’t represent “a challenge” to anyone.
A Hezbollah official told Reuters the group had delegated Berri to negotiate on its behalf over the presidency.
The presidency is decided by a vote in Lebanon’s 128-seat parliament. No single political alliance has enough seats to impose its choice, meaning an understanding among rival blocs is needed to secure the election of a candidate.
Following a meeting on Wednesday with Berri and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, Mikati – a Sunni Muslim – read a joint statement calling for the election of a “consensus president who will reassure everyone and dispel their concerns”.
The statement did not name any candidates.
Israel is waging a major offensive against Hezbollah which has killed more than 1,000 people in Lebanon since Sept. 16 and uprooted one million.
Wael Abu Faour, a senior lawmaker from Jumblatt’s faction, told Reuters the election of a consensus president would send “a message to the outside world that there is a strong government in the country ready to negotiate” over a ceasefire.
He said the meeting of the three leaders did not represent the formation of a new alliance and that factions including Christian parties were being engaged in discussions on the presidency.
The Lebanese Forces party, a major Christian faction and fierce Hezbollah opponent, on Monday called for the election of a president, saying this was the only way for “the state to assume its responsibilities on its own” – implicit criticism of Hezbollah over its possession of a massive arsenal of weapons.
Lebanon’s last president, Michel Aoun, was a former army commander and a political ally of Hezbollah.
A senior Western diplomat who did not wish to be named said Western and Arab nations had been urging Lebanon’s politicians to elect a president, adding that it was also in the interest of Hezbollah for the political conundrum to be resolved so the state could take more of the “weight” of the Israel crisis.
Abu Faour said the three leaders also discussed avoiding internal tensions in Lebanon as a result of the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people from Hezbollah-controlled areas into other parts of the country.
Hezbollah’s obstruction of presidential election
Following its war with Israel Hezbollah pointed its guns against the Lebnaese people . It first occupied downtown Beirut and In May 2008 it occupied the predominantly Sunni and Christian Western part of Beirut and attempted but failed to occupy the Druze stronghold of Mt Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s former leader Hassan Nasrallah who openly declared his allegiance to Iran and its supreme leader in 2019 accused the opposition of serving Israel’s objectives
Hezbollah imposed the election of former president Michel Aoun on the Lebanese parliament in 2016 and has been trying to duplicate the scenario with its candidate Suleiman Franjieh but so far has failed because it no longer commanded a majority in the parliament
Berri has been dreaming up plans to help Hezbollah in imposing its candidate by blocking any election sessions and reverting to his old tricks of manipulation and corruption
“In the heavily corrupted Lebanon Berri is known to be the father of corruption” Ali Hussein a Lebanese political analyst was quoted as saying
Berri has been insisting that the only road to a presidential election is dialogue, but to the opposition dialogue meant surrender to Hezbollah .
Following the failure of the 12th round to elect a president in June 2023 , Berri was quoted as saying
“Without dialogue, there will be no president,”
He made the comment during an interview with the pro-Hezbollah newspaper al-Akhbar.
Ever since president Michel Aoun’s term ended on 31 October 2022, the Lebanese parliament has not been able to elect a president to replace Aoun, primarily because Berri has been using his position as the speaker to block the election
Berri derives all his political strength from the heavily armed Hezbollah.
Flawed election system
Lebanon’s presidential election system has come under scrutiny in recent years due to its inherent flaws and the potential for undemocratic outcomes.
The current system, which requires a candidate to secure a two-thirds majority in the first round, often leads to situations where even a candidate with the support of 65 % of the parliament in the first round may fail to secure victory. It is imperative to reconsider this system and explore alternative approaches to ensure a fair and representative electoral process, according to analysts
In the last June 2023 round the candidate of the opposition , former minister Jihad Azour secured 59 votes of the 128 member parliament in the first round while his opponent ” Franjieh” Hezbollah’s and Berri’s backed candidate secured 51 votes . At the end of the first round the MPs of Hezbollah and its allies and their candidate walked out of the parliament and declared victory . Berri decided to end the election session. This scenario could have repeated itself even if Franjieh was in the lead . The Lebanese election system is therefore to blame for the impasse.
According to analysts the current presidential election system in Lebanon is in dire need of reform. The existing two-thirds majority requirement in the first round, coupled with the potential quorum issues in the second round, has resulted in undemocratic outcomes and a lack of faith in the process. By adopting the “half plus one” system in the first round, Lebanon can move towards a more representative and inclusive electoral process, ensuring that the will of the majority prevails. It is crucial for the Lebanese lawmakers to address these concerns and work towards a fairer presidential election system that upholds the principles of democracy and strengthens public trust in their democratic institutions.
Amending article 49 of the constitution is the key to fair elections
Instead of wasting time on fake dialogue and arms twisting Speaker Berri should immediately call for a session to amend Lebanon’s current flawed presidential election system as per article 49 of the constitution as soon as a new president is elected .
Reuters/ Ya Libnan
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