WASHINGTON — Kamala Harris is ahead or tied with Donald Trump in six of seven battleground states, according to a new survey released Wednesday, erasing the leads the former Republican president enjoyed before Joe Biden dropped out of the race last month.
The Cook Political Report survey of seven key swing states found Harris leading Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Arizona, and tied with Trump in Georgia. Nevada is the only battleground state that Trump still leads, the poll found.
The poll, conducted by the Democratic polling firm BSG and Republican polling firm GS Strategy Group, has a margin of error that ranges by state from +/- 4.7 percentage points to 4.9 percentage points. Harris’ leads in three states – Arizona, Michigan and North Carolina − are within that range.
The findings suggest multiple paths to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election have opened for Harris, the vice president and Democratic nominee, after Biden’s struggles in the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina forced his campaign to increasingly bank on the so-called “blue wall” states: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump led Biden in six of the seven battleground states, and was tied with Biden in Wisconsin, in a survey the same pollsters conducted in May. But Harris has now largely consolidated the Democratic base, the survey found, with 91% of voters who backed Biden in 2020 now saying they will vote for Harris, compared to 82% of this group in May who
Harris leads Trump head-to-head among independent voters across the seven battleground states, 48% to 40%, whereas Trump previously led Biden 41%-38 among independents. And perhaps most significantly, Harris leads “double hater” voters − those who say they don’t like Biden or Trump − by a wide 30 percentage points, 54% to 24%. Trump had previously led with this group as well.
“In many ways, Harris is unburdened by what has been,” Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, wrote in an analysis of the results. “She is the sitting incumbent, yet 56% of battleground state voters say she represents a chance to ‘turn the page of the Trump/Biden era’ and 59% see her as representing a ‘new generation of leadership.’
The Trump campaign has sought to slow down Harris’ momentum by alleging she’s “dangerously liberal” and trying to tie her to Biden, whose approval rating has hovered around 40% for much of his term.
Harris, who conducted a multi-battleground state blitz last week with her new running-mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, is still calling herself “the underdog” in the race. She will look to build on her polling strength at next week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
The poll was a survey of 2,867 likely voters across seven swing state taken between July 26 and Aug. 2, with third-party candidates also included.
Arizona
Harris leads Trump 46%-42% in the poll. In May, Trump led Biden by 5 percentage points in Arizona.
Georgia
Harris and Trump are tied at 46% in the poll. In May, Trump led Biden by 4 percentage points in Georgia.
Michigan
Harris leads Trump 46%-44% in the poll. In May, Trump led Biden by 3 percentage points in Michigan.
Nevada
Trump leads Harris 47%-42% in the poll. In May, Trump led Biden by 8 percentage points in Nevada.
North Carolina
Harris leads Trump 46%-44% in North Carolina in the poll. In May, Trump led Biden by 8 percentage points in North Carolina.
Pennsylvania
Harris leads Trump 48%-43% in Pennsylvania in the poll. In May, Trump led Biden by 3 percentage points in Pennsylvania.
Wisconsin
Harris leads Trump 48%-43% in Wisconsin in the poll. In May, Trump and Biden were tied in Wisconsin
About battleground or swing states
Swing states, also known as battleground states, are states that could “swing” to either Democratic or Republican candidates depending on the election. Because of their potential to be won by either candidate, political parties often spend a disproportionate amount of time and campaign resources on winning these states.
While there is no universal definition of what identifies a swing state, they are characterized by having small vote margins and that different political parties win over time. Since 1992, 30 states have voted for the candidate of the opposite party from the previous election at least once. And 26 states were won by less than three points in any presidential election since 1992.
What are the current swing states?
The states that voted for current Democratic President Joe Biden in 2020 and former Republican president Donald Trump in 2016 and are often highlighted as swing states. These states include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Tight margins in races also indicate that a state could have been won by either party. In 2020, seven states were won by a margin of three percentage points or less. These states included the five above states, in addition to North Carolina and Nevada.
USA Today
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