Hong Kong is no longer a warning—it is evidence.
By Vlad Green, Op-Ed
When China signed the Sino-British Joint Declaration in 1984, it pledged that Hong Kong would retain its freedoms, independent courts, and way of life for 50 years after the 1997 handover. That promise collapsed in barely half that time. The final disbanding of Hong Kong’s last democratic party marks the official death of “One Country, Two Systems.”
For Taiwan, this moment carries a message that could not be clearer.
Beijing continues to insist that reunification with Taiwan can occur peacefully, under the same “One Country, Two Systems” framework once offered to Hong Kong. But history has already rendered its verdict. Hong Kong accepted Beijing’s assurances. Taiwan must not.
China’s strategy is not built on coexistence with democracy, but on its gradual elimination. Independent media, opposition parties, free elections, and an autonomous judiciary are not temporary irritants to the Chinese Communist Party—they are fundamental threats to one-party rule. Where such institutions exist, Beijing works patiently and relentlessly to dismantle them.
Taiwan today embodies everything the CCP fears: a vibrant democracy, a free press, a transparent legal system, and a population that chooses its leaders at the ballot box. To believe these freedoms could survive under Chinese sovereignty is not optimism—it is denial.
The argument that Taiwan is different from Hong Kong misses the point. Hong Kong was also promised autonomy. It had treaties, international guarantees, and global attention. None of that mattered once Beijing decided the time had come to tighten its grip.
What makes Taiwan different is not China’s intentions—but Taiwan’s ability to resist them.
This is not merely a regional issue. Taiwan sits at the heart of the global economy, the semiconductor supply chain, and the Indo-Pacific security order. Its fall would embolden authoritarian regimes worldwide and signal that democratic societies can be pressured, isolated, and ultimately absorbed without consequence.
The lesson of Hong Kong is simple and unforgiving: freedom cannot be negotiated with an authoritarian state that views control as survival. Promises are tactical tools, not binding commitments.
Taiwan’s future must be decided by its people—freely, without coercion, and without illusions. The world, having failed Hong Kong, cannot afford to fail Taiwan.
History is watching. This time, there will be no excuse for claiming ignorance.