File photo : the United Nation’s atomic watchdog confirmed in 2020 that Iran continues to enrich uranium, which can be used in the production of a nuclear bomb in a move that further complicates the possibility of reviving a landmark 2015 deal with world powers on the Iranian nuclear program.
By Amira El-Fekki
The United States and Iran are at a critical juncture, with fears of a military conflict growing by the week. Amid nuclear talks still stalled, both sides are bracing for confrontation—military buildups, economic sanctions and diplomatic breakdowns are escalating.
Why It Matters
Tensions have escalated under President Donald Trump‘s “maximum pressure” campaign meant to deter Tehran from developing its nuclear program. The U.S. has long viewed Iran‘s nuclear ambitions as a security threat.
In 2018, Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, citing Iran’s non-compliance. Iran has only increased its nuclear activities, which it says are for civilian use. Trump, who has vowed to bring peace to the Middle East, has expressed a preference for diplomacy and dialogue but did not rule out military action as U.S. forces rapidly deployed to the region.
Iran has refused direct talks under pressure and vowed to defend itself if tensions with the U.S. reach a tipping point. As new diplomatic efforts falter, the situation grows more volatile.
Diplomatic Threats
Iran’s Foreign Minister warned this week that his country would “respond swiftly to any attack” after Trump threatened to “bomb” Iran if no deal is reached over the future of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. Abbas Araghchi described U.S. threats as “unacceptable,” saying they would “further complicate the situation.”
In March, Trump sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to suggest opening negotiations for a new nuclear deal. Iran said that it would only engage in indirect talks while under the U.S.’s military threats.
Diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Iran have deteriorated since the U.S. pulled out of the Obama-era JCPOA. Trump has given Iran a two-month deadline to reach a new nuclear deal.
Military Buildup
While offering Iran a chance to negotiate, the U.S. also has significantly ramped up its military presence in the Persian Gulf and the wider Indian Ocean. B-2 stealth bombers, accompanied by cargo planes and refueling tankers, have been deployed to the joint British-American Diego Garcia air force and naval base in the Indian Ocean.
An aircraft carrier strike group led by the USS Carl Vinson is steaming toward the U.S. Central Command’s area of operations and is expected to arrive early next week. The U.S. naval group will operate alongside the USS Harry S. Truman, whose warships have been actively engaged against the Iran-backed Houthis from positions in the Red Sea.
Iran on Friday said it was prepared to defend itself from any attack, with President Masoud Pezeshkian stating that the armed forces were at their highest readiness level. A senior adviser to Khamenei suggested Iran might have “no choice” but to pursue nuclear weapons if attacked.
Both nations have engaged in significant posturing. The U.S. has conducted B-52 flyovers near Iran and held joint drills with Israel. Iran has positioned advanced air defense systems around the Strait of Hormuz and intensified regional military activities, including by showing off its “missile cities” in a clear warning to the U.S. and its allies.
‘Maximum Pressure’
Economic sanctions have remained central to the U.S.-Iran standoff. Washington reimposed sweeping sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports, banking sector, and defense industries in a bid to cripple the economy and pressure Tehran into compliance.
The Iranian rial has plummeted and inflation has topped 40 percent amid mounting economic instability. New U.S. sanctions targeting covert oil exports have compounded the crisis, with oil revenues falling and Iranians turning to gold and foreign currency to protect their savings.
Although the sanctions have triggered a severe economic downturn, they have so far failed to bring Iran back to the negotiating table.
Nuclear Concerns
Tehran has increased its nuclear activities, including uranium enrichment and missile development. The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates that Iran’s recent enrichment is close to bomb-grade.
European nations have raised alarms over Iran’s rapid nuclear expansion and deviation from commitments in the JCPOA. By 2020, Iran had stopped adhering to key limitations on uranium enrichment, in response to the U.S. killing of its top commander Qasem Soleimani.
Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but the potential development of nuclear weapons remains a significant concern for the West and is the primary driver of the desire for talks.
Iran’s Proxies
Iran’s support for various proxies in the Middle East—Hamas, Hezbollah and militia groups in Iraq and Syria—has been a consistent point of contention.
The U.S.’s military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen—the first military operation of Trump’s second presidency—has sent a message to potential adversaries about the importance of maritime economic security in the region. However, it has come at the cost of several MQ-9 drones, all shot down by cheaper weapons wielded by Houthi fighters.
Elsewhere in the Middle East, the U.S. has also lent its support to ally Israel’s military strikes against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Strategic Alliances
The U.S. maintains longstanding security partnerships with Israel and Gulf Arab states—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain. Recent moves to normalize their relations with Israel are partly aimed at countering Iranian influence.
The U.S. is also leveraging NATO and broader international coalitions to apply pressure on Iran, but Tehran itself is increasingly turning to Russia and China for high-level political support as well as economic and military alternatives amid Western sanctions.
Opportunities to De-escalate
Although Iran has rejected Trump’s proposal for talks, the U.S. president has reiterated his desire for direct negotiations in order to address nuclear concerns.
“They wanted to use intermediators. I don’t think that’s necessarily true anymore. I think they’re concerned; I think they feel vulnerable, and I don’t want them to feel that way,” Trump said on Air Force One on Thursday.
Tehran suggests talks through a third party might be possible, but the divergence with the U.S. highlights the difficulty of the challenge, despite both sides continue to signal a willingness to pursue diplomatic solutions over military conflict.
What Happens Next
With Trump’s looming ultimatum to Iran and Iran’s defiant rhetoric, military action remains a possible outcome if diplomatic efforts fail.
Newsweek