Baabda presidential chair awaits its new occupant after president Michel Aoun’s term ended on October 31 , 2022 .
Lebanese lawmakers are due to meet on Thursday to elect a president, but analysts say that even with key political player Hezbollah weakened by war, white smoke is not guaranteed.
The tiny Mediterranean country, already deep in economic and political crisis, has been without a president for more than two years amid bitter divisions between Shiite Muslim group Hezbollah and its opponents.
Israel dealt Hezbollah’s armed wing a serious blow during a two-month war this autumn and killed the group’s influential leader Hassan Nasrallah.
The Iran-backed group, accused by critics of blocking a parliamentary majority in a dozen previous bids to elect a new head of state, has also lost a key ally in neighbouring Syria since Islamist-led forces toppled president Bashar al-Assad last month.
But analysts say there was no indication that the 13th presidential vote planned for later this week will be any more productive.
“The Lebanese people still have no idea whether it will lead to the election of a president or whether it will end in failure,” said Lebanese analyst Karim Bitar.
Under multi-confessional Lebanon’s power-sharing system, the president must be a Maronite Christian.
In a country rocked by a civil war from 1975 to 1990, the deeply divided ruling class usually agrees on a name, but leaders have been unable to reach consensus since the term of the last president, Michel Aoun, ended in October 2022.
Bitar said a leading candidate in Thursday’s vote is army chief Joseph Aoun, “who seems to be supported by the United States and to a lesser extent by France and Saudi Arabia”.
But “there is still some reluctance among certain political parties… to elect him,” said the analyst.
– ‘Distrust’ –
Visiting US envoy Amos Hochstein on Monday urged the ruling class to take advantage of the fragile truce between Israel and Hezbollah and reach “political consensus”.
Bitar said that “often, it is at the very last minute that regional and international superpowers indicate their preference and put pressure on MPs who simply follow” suit.
Former president Michel Aoun — who is not related to Joseph Aoun — was elected in 2016 after a deal between Hezbollah and its opponents ended a two-and-half-year deadlock during which the position was also vacant.
“Hezbollah today is no longer capable of imposing someone really close to its camp after the fall of the Syrian regime and after the weakening of Hezbollah during the war,” Bitar said.
But “it can still oppose someone that they really distrust”.
Hezbollah and its allies have backed former minister Suleiman Frangieh, who is a friend of Assad.
But, according to David Wood, Lebanon analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank, “Frangieh’s chances have nosedived in recent weeks due to the severe weakening of Hezbollah and the downfall of Bashar al-Assad, his key political backers.”
Hezbollah and its ally Amal movement, led by Lebanon’s powerful parliament speaker, 86-year-old Nabih Berri, were “considering other options behind the scenes”, said Wood.
– ‘Serious obstacles’ –
Other names circulating include Samir Geagea the leader of the Lebanese Forces Lebanon’s main Christian party , a staunch Hezbollah opponent
Other candidates include :
Jihad Azour, a former finance minister and International Monetary Fund official. Azour, secured the highest number of votes in the last election section, when he ran against Suleiman Franjieh
Maj. Gen. Elias Bayssari, the acting General Security Chief who replaced General Abbas Ibrahim , a key ally of Hezbollah
Ziad Baroud , a former Interior Minister
MP Farid Haykal al-Khazen , a former minister
MP Salah Honein , a constitutional lawyer and former minister
MP Neemat Frem, a Lebanese politician, businessman, and entrepreneur
Nassif Hitti, a Lebanese diplomat, university professor, and former Minister of Foreign Affairs
Samir Assaf, a Lebanese businessman. He is also a senior advisor to HSBC‘s Group Chairman, and holds several other executive positions
Jean-Louis Cardahi, a Lebanese engineer and businessman and a former minister.
Alfred Riachi the Secretary-General of the Permanent Conference of the Federation
Ibrahim Kanaan a former MP and head of the Finance committee of the parliament
The Free Patriotic Movement, led by MP Gebran Bassil, “outright opposes Aoun’s nomination,” said Wood.
On top of this, “it remains unclear how Lebanon’s fragmented Sunni blocs will vote”, Wood added.
Aoun would need a two-third majority — at least 86 out of 128 lawmakers — to be eligible for election , according to the constitution. If he does not secure two -thirds majority he won’t be able to run unless a deal is made , like in previous elections
If he is allowed to run with other candidates and all fail to secure 86 of the 128 member parliament , then the parliament will hold a second round, where a simple 65-vote majority is needed to win.
The constitution stipulates that presidential candidates should not have held high public office for the past two years, which would technically disqualify Aoun if an amendment to the constitution or a deal fails to materialize
Parliament speaker Berri, a key ally of Hezbollah however, has been reported as saying he opposes any constitutional amendment.
If elected, Aoun would be Lebanon’s fifth army commander made president, and the fourth in a row.
Speaker Berri and his allies the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants have been the main obstacles in the election of president.
Flawed election system
Lebanon’s presidential election system has come under scrutiny in recent years due to its inherent flaws and the potential for undemocratic outcomes.
The current system, which requires a candidate to secure a two-thirds majority in the first round, often leads to situations where even a candidate with the support of 65 % of the parliament in the first round may fail to secure victory. It is imperative to reconsider this system and explore alternative approaches to ensure a fair and representative electoral process, according to analysts.
In the most recent election ( June 2023) ` the candidate of the opposition, former minister Jihad Azour secured 59 votes of the 128-member parliament in the first round while his opponent ” Franjieh” the Hezbollah and Amal-backed candidate secured 51 votes. At the end of the first round, the MPs of Hezbollah and its allies and their candidate walked out of the parliament and declared victory. The speaker who is a very close ally of Hezbollah decided to end the election session. This scenario could have repeated itself if Franjieh had been in the lead. The Lebanese election system is therefore to blame for the impasse.
According to analysts the current presidential election system in Lebanon is in dire need of reform. The existing two-thirds majority requirement in the first round, coupled with the potential quorum issues in the second round, has resulted in undemocratic outcomes and a lack of faith in the process. By adopting the “half plus one” system in the first round, Lebanon can move towards a more representative and inclusive electoral process, ensuring that the will of the majority prevails. The Lebanese lawmakers must address these concerns and work towards a fairer presidential election system that upholds the principles of democracy and strengthens public trust in their democratic institutions.
Amending Article 49 of the constitution is the key to fair elections
Instead of wasting time on fake dialogue and arms-twisting Speaker Nabih Berri should immediately and prior to the January 9, 2025 call for a session to amend Lebanon’s current flawed presidential election system as per Article 49 of the constitution
“The “half plus one” system in the first round is currently being used to elect a Speaker and designate the Prime Minister, why should it be any different for the president ?” Analysts say.
France 24/ AFP/YL