Russian President Vladimir Putin, L and renegade general Khalifa Haftar. Russia’s has been thru its Warner mercenary army been arming Haftar, one of the key players in the Libyan civil war
By Ya Libnan Editorial Board
In recent developments, Libyan Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah expressed grave concerns that his country could become a new “battlefield” for international conflicts. This alarm follows reports of Russian weapon transfers from Syria to eastern Libya, potentially signaling an escalation in Russia’s involvement in the North African nation. Libya, already grappling with the aftermath of years of conflict and division, now faces the specter of foreign interference reminiscent of the devastating Syrian conflict. The question arises: Is Russia trying to destabilize Libya as it did in Syria?
Russia’s Playbook: A Pattern of Intervention
Russia’s engagement in Libya mirrors its strategy in Syria in many ways. In Syria, Moscow’s military intervention in 2015 was pivotal in bolstering President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, allowing Assad to hold onto power despite widespread rebellion and international condemnation. Through its actions, Russia secured strategic military assets, such as the Tartus naval base and Hmeimim airbase, solidifying its presence in the Eastern Mediterranean. Similarly, in Libya, Russia has been a staunch supporter of Khalifa Haftar, the military leader of the eastern administration, providing him with military and logistical backing.
Reports of military equipment being transferred from Syria’s Tartus and Hmeimim bases to eastern Libya further underscore Russia’s strategy of using its Syrian foothold to project power into other regions. By supporting Haftar, Russia aims to establish a stronghold in North Africa, securing its influence over Libya’s vast energy resources and strategic Mediterranean coastline.
The Role of Proxy Forces
A hallmark of Russia’s strategy in conflict zones has been the use of private military contractors like the Wagner Group. In both Syria and Libya, Wagner forces have been instrumental in advancing Russian interests while providing plausible deniability for the Kremlin. In Libya, these mercenaries have supported Haftar’s military campaigns, further destabilizing the already divided country.
This approach allows Russia to wield influence without committing large-scale, overt military forces, reducing the political and financial costs of its interventions. However, it also exacerbates internal divisions and prolongs conflicts, as seen in both Syria and Libya.
Exploiting Fragmentation
Both Syria and Libya have been plagued by internal divisions that Russia has skillfully exploited. In Syria, Moscow’s support for Assad allowed it to position itself as a decisive power broker in the conflict, sidelining Western and regional actors. In Libya, Russia’s backing of Haftar’s eastern administration has deepened the divide between the UN-recognized government in Tripoli and its eastern rival.
This strategy not only undermines national sovereignty but also destabilizes regions, creating power vacuums that Russia can manipulate to its advantage. By entrenching itself in these conflicts, Russia transitions from a marginal actor to a central player in shaping the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and North Africa.
Implications for Libya
Prime Minister Dbeibah’s concerns about Libya becoming a “battlefield” are not unfounded. The transfer of Russian weapons and the presence of Wagner forces in eastern Libya could escalate tensions and spark renewed conflict between the rival administrations. This would not only prolong Libya’s suffering but also destabilize the broader region.
Moreover, Russia’s actions threaten to undermine international efforts to stabilize Libya. The UN and other actors have worked to mediate between Libya’s rival factions, aiming to pave the way for democratic elections and national reconciliation. Russian interference could derail these efforts, ensuring that Libya remains mired in conflict and division.
A Call to Action
The international community must take decisive steps to address Russia’s destabilizing actions in Libya. This includes enforcing sanctions on entities involved in supporting Haftar’s military campaigns, increasing support for the UN-recognized government, and holding Moscow accountable for its interference.
Libya, like Syria before it, risks becoming a theater for proxy wars that serve the interests of foreign powers at the expense of its people. The world cannot afford to turn a blind eye as Russia repeats its Syrian playbook in Libya. It is time for a unified international response to ensure that Libya’s sovereignty is respected and its people’s aspirations for peace and stability are realized.