Top rebel commander Abu Mohammed al-Golani speaks to a crowd at Ummayad Mosque in Damascus, after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar al-Assad, Syria December 8, 2024. REUTERS/Mahmoud Hassano/File Photo
By Ya Libnan Editorial Board
Syria’s devastating civil war has left the nation in ruins, both physically and socially. Yet, amid the destruction, Syria’s rebels have showcased their potential to rebuild and govern. In Idlib, where opposition forces have retained control, their efforts to establish governance structures, provide essential services, and maintain order have sent rays of hope for Syria’s future. The question remains, however: will external powers—Israel, Turkey, Russia, and Iran—allow the rebels to realize their vision for a rebuilt Syria?
Lessons from Idlib: A Glimpse of What Could Be
In the rebel-held Idlib province, opposition forces have demonstrated an ability to organize and manage civilian life despite enormous challenges. Local councils have worked to maintain schools, health services, and basic infrastructure, often with limited resources. These efforts are a testament to their determination and ingenuity. Additionally, their capacity to adapt to crises, including managing displaced populations and coordinating aid distribution, highlights their potential to govern effectively on a larger scale.
However, their achievements are not without flaws. Humanitarian needs remain overwhelming, and governance in Idlib is fragmented. Rival factions within the opposition have sometimes hindered progress, and external funding sources have imposed their own agendas, complicating local priorities. Yet, compared to the chaos elsewhere in Syria, Idlib stands as a symbol of resilience and a blueprint for what could be possible in a post-conflict Syria.
The Geopolitical Dilemma
The ability of Syria’s rebels to rebuild and govern their country does not depend solely on their capacity or vision. Instead, it hinges largely on the willingness of external powers to permit or enable their success. Israel, Turkey, Russia, and Iran all have competing interests in Syria, and each seeks to shape the nation’s future to align with its own strategic objectives.
- Israel: Concerned about security threats along its northern border, particularly from Iranian-backed forces, Israel’s primary focus in Syria has been to neutralize these risks. While Israel might prefer a stable and peaceful Syria, its actions—including airstrikes targeting Iranian and Hezbollah positions—risk destabilizing rebel-held areas and undermining their efforts to rebuild.
- Turkey: As a key supporter of Syrian opposition groups, Turkey has played a dual role. On one hand, it has provided military and logistical support to rebels, enabling them to retain control over parts of northern Syria. On the other hand, Turkey’s own geopolitical agenda, including its aim to curb Kurdish influence and expand its sphere of influence, often overshadows the broader goals of the Syrian opposition. Turkish interventions have sometimes created tensions among rebel factions, further complicating governance.
- Russia: A staunch ally of the Assad regime, Russia has little incentive to see Syria’s rebels succeed. Moscow’s military interventions have consistently aimed to crush opposition forces and consolidate Assad’s grip on power. While Russia’s involvement has brought a degree of stability to regime-controlled areas, it has also perpetuated the conflict by prolonging Assad’s rule and stifling opportunities for meaningful political change.
- Iran: Like Russia, Iran’s support for the Assad regime stems from its strategic interests in maintaining influence in the region. Tehran’s backing of militias and proxy groups has escalated tensions and fueled sectarian divides, making it difficult for rebels to unify and focus on rebuilding. Moreover, Iran’s ambitions often clash directly with those of the Syrian opposition, leaving little room for cooperation or compromise.
The Path Forward
For Syria’s rebels to succeed in rebuilding their country, a fundamental shift in the approach of external powers is necessary. This includes recognizing the legitimacy of the opposition’s governance efforts and prioritizing Syria’s long-term stability over short-term geopolitical gains. The international community must also step in to mediate among these external actors, fostering dialogue and reducing tensions that obstruct the rebels’ progress.
Additionally, the rebels themselves must address internal challenges. They need to unify their ranks, establish clear and inclusive political frameworks, and ensure that their governance efforts are transparent and accountable. By doing so, they can build trust among Syrians and the global community, strengthening their position as legitimate stewards of Syria’s future.
A Warning Against Sectarian Systems
As Syria charts its path forward, it must avoid the pitfalls of adopting sectarian systems of governance similar to those in Lebanon and Iraq. Such systems, based on dividing power along sectarian lines, have proven to be recipes for perpetual instability, corruption, and foreign interference. In Lebanon and Iraq, sectarianism has entrenched divisions, undermined national unity, and left these nations vulnerable to external manipulation. For Syria, following this model would guarantee that it remains fragmented and unable to achieve true sovereignty. Instead, Syria must prioritize a governance system that is inclusive, merit-based, and focused on national cohesion rather than sectarian interests.
Conclusion
The resilience and determination demonstrated by Syria’s rebels in Idlib offer hope for the nation’s future. However, their ability to rebuild and govern Syria depends not only on their efforts but also on the actions of external powers. Israel, Turkey, Russia, and Iran must recognize that their interference has prolonged suffering and instability. It is time for these nations to step back and allow Syrians to determine their own destiny. Only then can Syria’s rebels turn their plans for reconstruction into reality, paving the way for a peaceful and prosperous future.