Baabda presidential chair awaits the new occupant of the palace after President Michel Aoun’s term ended on October 31 , 2022 . The Lebanese parliament failed June 2023 for the 12th time to elect a president last because of the current flawed presidential election system . The system needs to be reformed
Speaker Nabih Berri reportedly finally found the key to the Lebanese parliament and called for a January 9th session to elect a president. This is more than 18 months since the last session and over 2 years since the term of President Michel Aoun ended.
Lebanon has been trying to elect a president Since October 2022. But the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group with help from Berri prevented this from happening.
Here is an updated list of the presidential hopefuls:
1-Army chief Joseph Aoun has never announced his candidacy and is not supposed to be on the list but is reportedly the most serious candidate
2- Jihad Azour, the Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund,
3- Marada Movement chief, and former minister Suleiman Franjieh
Azour and Franjieh were the only 2 candidates in the last session of June 2023.
Azour, the candidate of the opposition received the maximum number of votes in the first round but Hezbollah decided to quit the session because its candidate Franjieh lost. Berri, a key ally of Hezbollah decided to end the session because there was no quorum for the session to proceed and because he too preferred Franjieh a friend of Bashar al Assad, the ousted Syrian dictator . According to the Lebanese constitution, the president, unlike any of the top posts in Lebanon should be elected with a majority of two-thirds of the parliament votes
The list is now much longer
4- Former ambassador to the Vatican and former army intelligence chief Brig. Gen. George Khoury.
5- General Security Chief Maj. Gen. Elias Bayssari, who replaced General Abbas Ibrahim a key ally of Hezbollah
6- Former Interior Minister Ziad Baroud
7- Farid Haykal al-Khazen , a former minister and an MP
8- Salah Honein, a constitutional lawyer and former MP
9 – Neemat Frem, a Lebanese politician, businessman, and entrepreneur and and an MP
10-Nassif Hitti, a Lebanese diplomat, university professor, and former Minister of Foreign Affairs
11- Samir Assaf, a Lebanese businessman. He is also a senior advisor to HSBC‘s Group Chairman, and hold several other executive positions
12- Jean-Louis Cardahi, a Lebanese engineer and businessman and a former minister.
13- Today is Friday the 13th and the 13th candidate tossed his hat into the ring. Alfred Riachi the Secretary-General of the Permanent Conference of the Federation, announced today his candidacy for the presidency of the Republic, presenting a proposal for a roadmap with 2 options
! – Federalism
If the first option is rejected then, the only other option is :
2- Partitioning
Like the majority of the Lebanese, Riachi is opposed to the corrupt sectarian political system in Lebanon and sees federalism as the answer, in order for Lebanon to become a truly sovereign nation. This is the system that saved Switzerland hundreds of years ago and made America the most powerful and prosperous nation on earth.
The way he sees it. If we can’t jointly build a state, let each sect build its own state since coexistence will be impossible.
Switzerland has 26 cantons and Lebnaon has 25 Qathaa. It is very easy according to experts for Lebanon to switch to the Swiss system. After all Lebanon was called the Switzerland of the East, this is way before the so-called Axis of Resistance took over.
The irony here is that none of the above candidates may make it to Baabda. The US and France have the final say in addition to the other 3 members of the mediating committee, Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia
Flawed election system
Lebanon’s presidential election system has come under scrutiny in recent years due to its inherent flaws and the potential for undemocratic outcomes.
The current system, which requires a candidate to secure a two-thirds majority in the first round, often leads to situations where even a candidate with the support of 65 % of the parliament in the first round may fail to secure victory. It is imperative to reconsider this system and explore alternative approaches to ensure a fair and representative electoral process, according to analysts.
In the most recent election ( June 2023) ` the candidate of the opposition, former minister Jihad Azour secured 59 votes of the 128-member parliament in the first round while his opponent ” Franjieh” the Hezbollah and Amal-backed candidate secured 51 votes. At the end of the first round, the MPs of Hezbollah and its allies and their candidate walked out of the parliament and declared victory. The speaker who is a very close ally of Hezbollah decided to end the election session. This scenario could have repeated itself if Franjieh had been in the lead. The Lebanese election system is therefore to blame for the impasse.
According to analysts the current presidential election system in Lebanon is in dire need of reform. The existing two-thirds majority requirement in the first round, coupled with the potential quorum issues in the second round, has resulted in undemocratic outcomes and a lack of faith in the process. By adopting the “half plus one” system in the first round, Lebanon can move towards a more representative and inclusive electoral process, ensuring that the will of the majority prevails. The Lebanese lawmakers must address these concerns and work towards a fairer presidential election system that upholds the principles of democracy and strengthens public trust in their democratic institutions.
Amending Article 49 of the constitution is the key to fair elections
Instead of wasting time on fake dialogue and arms-twisting Speaker Nabih Berri should immediately and prior to the January 9, 2025 call for a session to amend Lebanon’s current flawed presidential election system as per Article 49 of the constitution
“The “half plus one” system in the first round is currently being used to elect a Speaker and designate the Prime Minister, why should it be any different for the president ?” Analysts say.