Russian Antonov An-124 cargo aircraft on the runway of the Khmeimim base in Syria. Russia is packing up and accelerating its exit from its basis in Syria after deposed Syrian dictator Bashar Al Assad fled to Moscow
Russia has accelerated its military withdrawal from Syria and suspended a grain deal with the country over concerns about the rebel-led government.
Russian soldiers were filmed packing up an S-400 air defense missile system at their Khmeimim airbase as armored personnel carriers and military trucks poured into the compound days after the ousting of Bashar al-Assad as president.
On Thursday, it was reported that the Kremlin believed it was close to striking a deal with the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, which overthrew Assad, to keep the airbase and the Tartus naval base in Syria but the status of any such agreement remains unclear.
As well as its two main bases on the Mediterranean coast, Russia had maintained several smaller forward operating bases across Syria. These now appear to have been abandoned.
Assad’s exit has undermined Vladimir Putin’s strategies for projecting power across the Middle East and Africa which had been hinged around the bases in Syria as vital refueling points, analysts believe.
Satellite imagery released by Maxar showed two Antonov An-124 cargo aircraft on the runway of the Khmeimim base. The An-124 is the largest heavy-lift aircraft in the world.
Several other smaller transport aircraft could also be seen.
Pro-Kremlin military blogs posted images of convoys of military trucks heading towards Khmeimim and Tartus.
Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, GUR, said that “the remnants of the Russian military contingent from the most remote regions of Syria are being withdrawn to the naval and air bases in Tartus and Khmeimim”.
“There are four to five military transport aircraft flying between Khmeimim and Russian airfields every day,” GUR said.
Oliver Alexander, an open-source analyst, said drone footage of the built-up area around the Khmeimim base showed how hard it would be for Russia to keep it operational, even if a deal was struck with rebels.
He also said that Russian forces were filmed packing up a radar kit that was vital for operating its S-400 air defense missiles.
Alexander said: “The Russian S-400 is definitely leaving. They have packed up their 91N6E radar and it was parked on the apron ready to be loaded onto an An-124.”
Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank, said that it was clear that the Russian army was withdrawing at least part of its forces from Syria.
“With commercial ships and Russian navy cargo ships on the way, a pick-up in air traffic at Khmeimim, and consolidation from Russian forward operating bases in Syria to the main bases, the withdrawal is picking up steam,” she said.
Michael Kofman, also at Carnegie, said in a post on X that it was “still unclear” if it was a complete exit by Russia but said there were “indications and rumors to that effect”.
Charles Lister, of the Middle East Institute, think tank, said withdrawal from Syria would be a “massive loss” for Moscow and would have ramifications for Russia’s operations in Africa.
Moscow, as a key ally to the Assad regime, also brought wheat from Russia through a complex arrangement designed to evade Western sanctions imposed on both countries.
A Russian source close to the government said supplies to Syria had been suspended because exporters are concerned by uncertainty over who will manage wheat imports on the Syrian side following the change of power in Damascus.
The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity owing to the sensitivity of the situation, told Reuters: “I think no one would dare supply wheat to Syria under the current circumstances.”
Ukraine offers wheat to Syria
Ukraine, which provides wheat to several other Middle Eastern countries, immediately offered to step in and provide grain to Syria where necessary.
Vitaliy Koval, Ukraine’s agricultural minister, said: “Where it is difficult, we have to be there with our food. We are open to supplying our food and if Syria needs food, then we are there.”
It comes after Ukraine reportedly supplied drones and their operators to HTS before their advance to Damascus. Ukraine said that it is willing to target Russian military bases and operations across the world.
Putin was said to have been shocked by the sudden collapse of dictator Assad’s regime.
Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, admitted Russia had been “surprised”, like the “whole world”.
In Syria, tens of thousands of people took to the streets, after Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the rebel leader, called on people to celebrate “the victory of the blessed revolution” but to avoid firing guns.
In Damascus, thousands gathered outside the Umayyad Mosque, a sight unimaginable just days ago, for the first Friday prayers since the collapse of the Assad regime.
Russian agents persuaded Assad to flee Damascus on Sunday morning in a private jet when it was clear that the rebels would capture the capital.
More than a dozen people with knowledge of Assad’s final hours in Damascus told Reuters that he had fled without even telling his younger brother, commander of an elite tank unit, or other allies because he feared that he would be betrayed.
They described how Assad had lied to his army commanders, telling them to make a stand and wait for Russian backup, which he knew was not coming.
Nadim Houri, the executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative regional think tank, said: “Assad didn’t even make a last stand. He didn’t even rally his own troops.”
From Damascus, Assad flew to the Khmeimim air base and then to Moscow, where his wife and three children were waiting for him.
Sources added that this was Assad’s second trip to Moscow in less than a fortnight.
Panicked by the speed and success of the HTS advance, they said that Assad had secretly traveled to Moscow on Nov 28 to beg for Russian military intervention. Three regional diplomats said, though, that these pleas were rejected. The Kremlin has not commented.
Syrians celebrating nationwide
Celebrations in Suweida City square after the liberation from the Assad regime | Credit: Suvwayda24/X
Celebrations in Hama City square after liberation from the Assad regime | Credit: Levant_24_/X
A woman draws the colors of the independent flag adopted by the new Syrian rulers on a girl’s face outside the Umayyad Mosque Credit: REUTERS
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