Photo: The leader of Syria’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, addresses a crowd at the capital’s landmark Umayyad Mosque on December 8. Aref Tammawi. Maintaining that unity in the face of governance challenges will be the true test for the new leadership./AFP/Getty Images
By: Ya Libnan Editorial Board
The fall of the Assad regime, confirmed last night with the president fleeing Syria and his whereabouts unknown, marks a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern history. For years, Assad was a cornerstone of Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance,” a network that also included Hamas and Hezbollah. With Assad’s ouster, the unraveling of this alliance appears complete, signaling a potential death knell for Iran’s regional strategy.
The Collapse of the Syrian Regime
The fall of Damascus represents a crushing blow to Iran’s influence in the Levant. Syria has long been Iran’s primary conduit for arming Hezbollah in Lebanon and exerting pressure on Israel. The loss of Assad’s regime leaves Tehran without a reliable ally in a critical region, exposing the fragility of its axis of resistance.
A Test of Unity for Syria’s New Leadership
In the wake of Assad’s departure, a new leadership has emerged in Syria, representing a coalition of opposition forces that united to achieve a remarkably swift victory. This unity, forged in the crucible of conflict, was essential to their success in toppling the regime. However, maintaining that unity in the face of governance challenges will be the true test for the new leadership.
Syria remains deeply divided along ethnic, sectarian, and ideological lines. The ability of the new government to include all factions, rebuild trust, and address the grievances of its diverse population will determine whether the country can move toward lasting stability. While their unity enabled victory, transforming that unity into effective governance will require a commitment to inclusivity and reconciliation.
Hamas and Hezbollah—Abandoned
This development comes in the wake of Iran’s conspicuous abandonment of other key proxies. After Hamas launched its attack in southern Israel in October, Iran provided little tangible support as Israel’s retaliation devastated Gaza. Similarly, Hezbollah suffered a severe blow in September when an Israeli strike eliminated several top commanders, yet Iran refrained from direct involvement. These moves suggest a retreat from the expansive regional ambitions Tehran once pursued.
The Death of the Axis of Resistance
With Assad’s regime toppled, and both Hamas and Hezbollah weakened and isolated, the axis of resistance appears to have disintegrated. Iran’s lack of intervention in these crises has left its allies disillusioned and vulnerable. Once a formidable network challenging Israel and Western influence, the axis of resistance now seems buried under the weight of Iran’s unwillingness—or inability—to act.
The Birth of a New Middle East?
The fall of Assad raises an even larger question: Does the death of Iran’s axis of resistance mark the birth of a new Middle East?
For years, the region was defined by entrenched rivalries and proxy conflicts. The disintegration of Iran’s alliance presents an opportunity to break from this cycle. A new Middle East could emerge—one focused on cooperation, economic development, and the resolution of long-standing disputes.
This vision aligns with the aspirations of regional leaders such as Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman, whose efforts to foster peace and economic integration have gained momentum. Without the destabilizing influence of Iran’s proxies, there may be room for lasting agreements between traditional adversaries, potentially transforming the region.
Iran at a Crossroads
Meanwhile, Iran faces a critical juncture. The regime’s decision to abandon its allies reflects a strategic recalibration, likely driven by internal pressures and a desire to avoid further escalation. However, this retreat could isolate Tehran further and weaken its standing among the very groups it once empowered.
The fall of the Assad regime signifies the end of an era for Iran’s axis of resistance. While this marks a dramatic shift in the region’s geopolitical landscape, it also opens the door for a new Middle East—one that prioritizes peace over conflict and prosperity over division. For Syria, the unity that achieved victory must now be sustained to rebuild a nation shattered by years of war. The success of the new leadership in fostering inclusivity and stability will be the ultimate test of whether this historic moment leads to renewal or renewed strife