Since November 27, a coalition of opposition forces in northwest Syria, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched an offensive against the Assad regime and its allied Iranian militias’ strongholds in the area. On November 29, opposition forces captured Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. On December 5, the opposition rebels entered Hama, Syria’s fourth-largest city, after dictator Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian Arab Army (SAA) announced that it was withdrawing from the city to its outskirts. This is the first major opposition offensive since the 2020 Idlib ceasefire between Russia and Turkey, and it marks the most significant shift in the balance of power in Syria’s war since Russia’s military intervention in the conflict almost a decade ago.
The capture of Hama is a significant strategic victory for the rebels, but Damascus remains the biggest prize. Here’s what to watch as the rebel offensive continues to unfold.
Why Hama matters
The rebels’ operation, named “Deterrence of Aggression,” was a response to increased shelling of civilian areas by government forces since the 2020 ceasefire agreement. With the control of strategic heights surrounding rebel-controlled northwest Syria, the regime and Iranian proxies utilized artillery, rockets, and first-person view drones to attack civilian infrastructure across Idlib province. Just a day before the operation launched, Assad regime forces attacked an elementary school in Ariha, killing three children and injuring fourteen. The rebels’ success so far has been attributed both to external factors, such as diminished Iranian and Hezbollah support for the regime and to internal coordination among opposition forces in Idlib and neighboring Aleppo.
As the rebels advance in Hama province, the power dynamics are dramatically shifting in their favor. The collapse of government defenses suggests a tactical failure and a broader strategic disarray within the Assad regime.
Taking Aleppo is a major feat by the rebels, but securing Hama holds special political and strategic importance. Hama is the city from which Syria’s early uprising in the 1960s and 1970s started. In 1982, it was subjected to a brutal military campaign, during which tens of thousands of its residents were killed and displaced. The event remains alive in the collective memory of Syrians as a demonstration of the willingness of the regime, then under Hafez al-Assad and now under his son Bashar, to exercise violence to remain in power. Hama also played a prominent role in the 2011 uprising as a site of large-scale popular protests.
Hama is also strategically positioned in central Syria between major cities, making it a critical node for controlling supply lines and transportation routes across the country. The province hosts a significant military airbase used by the SAA and its allies, including Russian forces. The airbase has been critical for launching airstrikes, reconnaissance, and logistical operations throughout the conflict. The city and its surroundings, which the rebels are currently taking over, also house several military barracks and artillery positions, making it a vital operational center.
In all, the rebels’ advance in and around Hama will seriously weaken the Assad regime’s ability to counter rebels’ attacks, reverse its losses from the past week, and defend its remaining strongholds in central Syria.
What’s next for the rebels?
Next, the opposition forces will likely advance southward and push toward the capital, Damascus. But after successfully capturing Aleppo and Hama, the rebel forces will face military, social, and governance challenges as they move south.
The rebels will need to cement their gains in Hama province. The area will be important to maintain military and strategic leverage against Assad, and it is likely to be the first target for any attempt by Assad to reverse the course of the rebel offensive. The rebels may also face logistical and operational challenges, including the need for supplies. Open-source intelligence indicates that as the SAA withdraws from different military bases, it is leaving enough military equipment and ammunition to power the rebel advances. However, the area captured in Hama province may stretch the rebel forces and expose them to counterattacks.
As the rebels head south toward Homs, they will be faced with new challenges. Homs is Syria’s third-largest city and serves as a critical transit hub connecting Damascus to the northern and western provinces, including the coastal strongholds of Latakia and Tartus, where the Russian military has bases. Entering Homs province requires going through large Alawite communities, many of which strongly support Assad. This poses a challenge for rebels to establish local support. A decade of fighting between Assad-allied militias and rebels within the province has resulted in more fortifications being built there. Homs is also home to a significant concentration of Syrian government forces, bolstered by allied militias and a large Hezbollah presence.
More importantly, the rebels advancing toward Homs will test Russia’s redlines in Syria. So far, Russia has been absent from providing serious military support to uphold Assad’s defenses across areas he’s losing to the rebels. While Russia has conducted some airstrikes in Idlib and Aleppo to counter rebel advances, it has not engaged directly in Hama. This restraint reflects Moscow’s strategic calculations to avoid overextension.
However, Russia appears committed to preserving the Assad regime, its primary foothold in the Middle East, and it has reportedly promised additional military aid to Damascus. If the rebels now advance toward Homs, Russia will have to decide where it draws the line, whether that is in preventing an advance toward Assad in Damascus or the protection of its major naval and air hub in western Syria.
The evolution of HTS
Syria’s rebels also face challenges in Hama and other areas under their control. Rebel factions in Syria have long had differing ideologies, and over the past decade, they have often struggled to present a unified governance structure. This lack of cohesion led to internal conflicts and weakened their overall ability to govern. So far in Hama, however, the rebels appear to be taking a different approach. Led by HTS, the rebels participating in Deterrence of Aggression have shown discipline in their military conduct, their control of civilian infrastructure, and their outreach to minority communities. Statements from rebel leadership emphasize the protection of civilians and Syria’s cultural heritage, reflecting efforts to gain local and possibly international legitimacy. This approach draws on HTS’s experience in Idlib province, where it has maintained control through a combination of military dominance, localized governance structures, and a focus on community relations, including outreach to minority groups.
While previously associated with al-Qaeda, HTS has evolved into a locally focused group, abandoned al-Qaeda’s cross-national jihadism ideology, and become the main force to counter the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and al-Qaeda in northwest Syria. Yet the group remains controversial due to its past militant and extremist activities. HTS also remains a designated terrorist organization by the United States and the United Nations, which presents challenges for foreign governments to deal with it. HTS has announced its willingness to dissolve itself, again, and work with partners on the ground to develop a more representative governing structure, in what seems to be a signal of its pragmatism toward the European Union (EU) and the United States. Diplomats have also indicated that HTS has communicated with different EU capitals its willingness to work with them to facilitate a safe return for Syrian refugees in Europe.
The control of Syria’s second and fourth-largest cities and their advances toward Homs present Syria’s rebels with challenges and opportunities. Aleppo is one of only two metropolitan centers in Syria with a population of more than four million. Hama is home to more than a million Syrians. In contrast to long-held Idlib, the rebels will be dealing with diverse religious, cultural, and ethnic communities, and they will have to adapt relatively quickly to the challenges ahead. If the rebels are successful in providing good governance in Aleppo and Hama, then it bodes well for their ability to successfully govern Damascus, and ultimately the whole of Syria. The world is watching.
THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Qutaiba Idlbi is a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs, where he leads the Council’s work on Syria.