U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein is on his way to Beirut and is scheduled to arrive Tuesday morning with the aim of finalizing a ceasefire deal between Hezbollah and Israel
He is expected to meet Speaker Nabih Berri on Tuesday as soon as he arrives in Beirut
Berri is negotiating on behalf of Hezbollah a ceasefire deal based on a US proposal that would end the war between Israel and Hezbollah, according to US officials
Hochstein’s trip to Beirut is a sign that a deal could be within reach, one official said, while another official cautioned that the trip doesn’t mean a deal was imminent.
The draft agreement includes a ceasefire and 60-day transition period, during which the Israeli military would withdraw from southern Lebanon, the Lebanese army would deploy in areas close to the border and Hezbollah would move its weapons north of the Litani River.
If talks in Beirut are successful, Hochstein is expected to travel to Israel on Wednesday.
But the chances of a deal based on UN resolution 1701 are remote since both Israel and Iran , thru Hezbollah are setting conditions that neither party will accept .
Israel reportedly wants the ability to police the border while Hezbollah remains skeptical about moving behind the Litany river . Hezbollah’s official response as reported by Lebanese media was: “We accept the American proposal , but”
On the other hand Israeli PM Netanyahu promised the ceasefire deal as gift to president elect Donald Trump and for this reason Israel is not in any rush to let president Biden take credit for such an important deal. Trump is supposed to take over from Biden on February 20 . For this reason skeptics believe that no deal is expected before that date.
Israel has significantly increased the number of airstrikes in Lebanon, including Beirut, in recent days, and it has expanded its ground operation in southern Lebanon.
Israeli officials said the aim was to increase the pressure on Hezbollah to agree to the ceasefire agreement.
According to the Lebanese media , Hezbollah and the Lebanese government expressed concerns to Hochstein about a clause in the ceasefire agreement that says Israel will have the right to defend itself against threats from Lebanon.
Israel has also asked the Biden administration for a side letter that would guarantee its “freedom of action” in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday at the Knesset that Israel is demanding that Hezbollah withdraw its forces north of the Litani River. Israel also must have the ability to prevent Hezbollah from rearming, he said.
“We won’t allow Hezbollah to go back to where it was on Oct. 6,” Netanyahu said.
The Iranian Supreme leader’s advisor was recently in Beirut and met with the top Lebanese officials . Ali Larijani reportedly told them not to rush into any ceasefire deal.
In conclusion , the ceasefire deal is not imminent and may have wait till February , 2025