Voters cast early ballots in Arlington, Virginia, on Sept. 20. (Craig Hudson for The Washington Post)
A Washington Post-Schar School poll finds Trump voters are far less willing to accept the election results than they were four years ago.
Vice President Kamala Harris holds a six-point edge over former president Donald Trump among likely voters in Virginia, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll, similar to her eight-point lead in September. The poll also finds Trump voters are far less willing than Harris voters to accept the election results if their candidate loses.
Trump, with the support of Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), has continued to assert that the state is “in play” this year, and plans to lead a rally outside Roanoke on Nov. 2.Though Harris’s advantage would suggest that a Trump winin the state is unlikely, her numbers show some potential weak spots.
Black voters in the state support Harris by a 59-point margin, smaller than Biden’s 79-point support in 2020, according to exit polls. And the candidates are evenly matched in the Northern Virginia exurbs, a shift from September when Harris held a double-digit lead. Part of the shift is due to a more conservative-leaning sample of respondents in the Northern Virginia exurbs this month than in September, suggesting it may be a statistical anomaly. Often a bellwether region, the Northern Virginia exurbs went for Biden by 10 points in 2020.
Harris has edge over Trump among likely Virginia voters
Q: If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, the Democrats, and Donald Trump and JD Vance, the Republicans, for whom would you vote? Whom would you lean toward? (Yellow bars indicate error margin)
About a quarter of registered voters in Virginia say theyhave already cast their ballots and more of them support Harris (54 percent) than Trump (40 percent). Among voters who say they are certain to turn out but have not yet voted, the contest is almost evenly split between Harris (47 percent) and Trump (45 percent).
But there is widespread reluctance from Trump voters in the Old Dominion to accept the presidential election results. Just about half of Trump voters in the state, 48 percent, say they are willing to accept Harris’s victory as legitimate if she has more votes in enough states to win the presidential election. That is down sharply from 66 percent of Trump voters who said the same about a Biden victory in a Post-Schar School poll four years ago. The percentage saying they are not willing to accept the results has also fallen — from 26 percent to 19 percent — but the share saying “it depends” has grown from 6 percent in 2020 to 22 percent today.
About half of Virginia Trump voters are willing to accept a Harris victory
Q: Thinking about when the vote count is complete in November, if Harris/Trump has more votes than Trump/Harris in enough states to win the presidential election, are you willing to accept Harris’s/Trump’s victory as legitimate, or are you not willing to do that?
Willing to accept 48%
Not willing to accept 19%
Depends 22%
“That’s the most discouraging of all, that such a large percentage of Trump Republicans [are] unwilling to accept the legitimacy of the outcome if it doesn’t go their way,” said Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University.
“A strong functioning democracy cannot withstand a public that is unwilling to accept the legitimacy of election outcomes and the peaceful transfer of power,” Rozell said. “To me it’s shocking.”
By contrast, a 75 percent majority of Harris supporters say they would be willing to accept Trump’s victory as legitimate if he got enough votes in enough states, up from 64 percent of Biden supporters who said the same in 2020.
Most Virginia Trump supporters do not see Biden’s 2020 win as legitimate: The new poll finds56 percent say he won “due to voter fraud,” echoing Trump’s baseless claims. Virtually all Harris supporters say Biden won the 2020 election “fair and square.”
Virginia has shifted left in presidential contests over the past two decades, from when the state voted for George W. Bush by eight points in 2000 and 2004. Barack Obama won the state by six points in 2008 and again in 2012 by a smaller margin, while Hillary Clinton won by five points in 2016 and Biden won the commonwealth by 10 points over Trump four years ago.
Republicans gained a recent foothold with Youngkin’s 2021 election as governor, and the poll findsa 56 percent majority approve of his performance, about the same as in previous polls.
By wide margins, Virginia registered voters say Harris will do a better job handling health care and abortion than Trump. They prefer her slightly to handle helping middle-class workers. And the two are virtually tied when it comes to who Virginians think would better handle crime, taxes and immigration. But Trump has a slight lead on handling the economy — 48 percent compared with 43 percent for Harris — the issue that ranks highest in importance for voters in the state.
Most voters who say the economy, immigration, crime and taxes are extremely important to their vote support Trump while majorities of voters who say health care and abortion are extremely important support Harris.
Harris’s image is narrowly positive in the state, with 48 percent saying they are favorable of her and 44 percent unfavorable. But Trump’s image is negative, with 52 percent of Virginia voters unfavorable of the former president and 39 percent favorable.
They are also more aligned with Harris on some key policies. Nearly two-thirds of Virginia voters, 64 percent, say abortion should be always or mostly legal — a right Harris supports. Those voters support Harris over Trump by a 47-point margin. Among the 29 percent of Virginia voters who say abortion should be legal in all cases, support for Harris grows even wider. Trump has a 76-point margin among the 26 percent of voters who say abortion should be always or mostly illegal.
Virginia voters say Harris would better handle health care and abortion, while Trump has edge on the economy
Q: How important will each of these issues be in your choice of which candidate to support? Which candidate do you think would do a better job handling each of the following, Harris, Trump or neither?
A 54 percent majority of Virginia voters say most undocumented immigrants in the United States should be offered a chance to apply for legal status, more than the 39 percent who say they should be deported to the countries they came from, a key component of Trump’s plans if he were to become president. Harris has the support of the 77 percent of voters who want legal status for undocumented immigrants; Trump has support from 85 percent of those who favor mass deportations.
There are other wide fissures among Virginia voters. Male likely voters support Trump by a six-point margin, while women support Harris by a wider 16 points.
Harris carries majority support in the close-in D.C. suburbs and in the Tidewater region. She also has a small edge in Richmond and Eastern Virginia, shrinking from a wider lead in September. And Trump has majority support in the central and western parts of the state, though those margins have slimmed for him since September as well.
Harris enjoys 96 percent support from Democrats while Trump has the support of 89 percent of Republicans. Harris peels off support from 7 percent of Republicans while just 2 percent of Democrats
defect to Trump, which helps her edge, as independents tilt slightly toward Trump.
While Harris’s support among Black voters has dipped,White voters support Trump by six points, similar to his eight-point marginamong that group four years ago. About half of White voters in Virginia have a bachelor’s degree or more and those voters support Harris by 15 points. Those with some college education or less support Trump by 29 points.
In the Senate race, Sen. Tim Kaine (D) has a comfortable 13-point lead over Republican challenger Hung Cao, 54 percent to 41 percent, almost identical to his September advantage.
In the Senate race, Sen. Tim Kaine (D) has a comfortable 13-point lead over Republican challenger Hung Cao, 54 percent to 41 percent, almost identical to his September advantage.
Washington Post
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