Hamas leader’s death creates opportunity for Gaza deal, Israeli and U.S. officials say

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s death creates an opportunity to resume negotiations for a deal to release the 101 hostages still held by Hamas and establish a ceasefire in Gaza, Israeli and U.S. officials say.

Why it matters: Negotiations for a deal have been frozen for two months, in part because of Sinwar’s hardline position and because he was incommunicado, Israeli and U.S. officials said.

• Sinwar’s death is a huge blow to Hamas, which has lost most of its military and political leadership.

It also provides Netanyahu the “victory picture” he’s been looking for since the Oct. 7 attacks and gives him political space — both with the Israeli public and inside his cabinet — to move toward a deal.

• Israeli officials said that, unlike Sinwar, other Hamas leaders and commanders might be more ready to surrender and even go into exile as part of a deal to end the war. 

“To the Hamas terrorists I say — your leaders are running away and they will be eliminated. I call on everyone who holds our hostages: whoever lays down his arms and returns our hostages, we will allow him to leave and live,” Netanyahu said in a statement on Thursday. 

• Netanyahu said Sinwar’s death is the beginning of the “day after” in Gaza without Hamas and that the group will not control Gaza anymore. 
• “The return of our hostages is an opportunity to achieve all our goals and it brings the end of the war closer,” he said.

 Sinwar was killed on Wednesday by Israeli forces in a house in the Tel al-Sultan neighborhood in the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

• An infantry unit of 19-year old soldiers who were on routine patrol in the area exchanged fire with three armed militants and killed them.
• It was a coincidental encounter that wasn’t based on intelligence. The soldiers realized they might have killed the most wanted person in the Middle East only after looking at his body.
• Forensic tests, including a DNA test, later confirmed it was Sinwar.

Zoom in: It’s unclear what Sinwar was doing in the house. Israeli and U.S. intelligence believed for a long time that he was hiding in tunnels deep underground in southern Gaza with hostages around him.

• But, Sinwar was in a house with two Hamas commanders and without any hostages. 

Hamas hasn’t officially confirmed Sinwar’s death but sources in the group told Reuters there are indications he is dead.

• Israeli officials said that according to Israeli intelligence, the remaining Hamas commanders were in disarray after the news broke about Sinwar.

The big picture: A Netanyahu aide and another Israeli official involved in the hostage deal negotiations said Sinwar’s death opens a window of opportunity to get a deal for the release of the hostages in return for a ceasefire in Gaza and said there is a need to work fast to push for such a deal. 

• “Prime Minister Netanyahu’s focus right now is to return the hostages by any means. Sinwar’s elimination creates a big opportunity to do that. Netanyahu wants to use this to resume negotiations on a deal,” Netanyahu’s aide said. 
• White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan also said Sinwar’s death creates an opportunity for reaching a hostage and ceasefire deal that the Biden administration wants to seize.
• There were moments when Sinwar “stood in the way of making progress towards a deal. There were other obstacles along the way but he was certainly a critical one. His removal from the battlefield does present an opportunity to get the hostages home and end the war,” Sullivan said. 

Yes, but: Some Israeli officials involved in the negotiations over the hostage and ceasefire deal said it is too soon to know if Sinwar’s death will allow for a breakthrough in the short term.

• Israeli officials said Netanyahu and his advisers have already been in contact with the Biden administration and the Qatari and Egyptian mediators about the future of the deal.
• U.S Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with the Prime Minister of Qatar and discussed Sinwar’s death and negotiations on the deal, the Qatari foreign ministry said.

Axios