FILE : President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is shown in front of a poster of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who is the ultimate authority in the Islamic Republic and who calls all the shots.
Hezbollah urged Iran in recent days to launch an attack against Israel as fighting between the Lebanese militant group and the Israeli military dramatically escalated, but Iran has so far refrained, two Israeli officials and one Western diplomat told Axios.
Why it matters: A direct Iranian attack against Israel would dramatically destabilize the region even further and likely draw the U.S. into more active fighting.
- Two Israeli officials said Iranian officials told their Hezbollah counterparts that “the timing isn’t right” for launching an attack against Israel because the Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian is currently in New York for the UN General Assembly.
- In a briefing with reporters on Monday in New York, Pezeshkian said Israel is the party seeking a wider war in the region and stressed that Iran doesn’t want to fall into this “trap.”
- A senior Israeli official said the security cabinet directive to Israel Defense Forces is to avoid steps the would give Iran a reason or a pretext to join the fighting.
- The Iranian mission to the UN and a spokesperson for Hezbollah didn’t respond to a request for comment.
- Driving the news: Israel and Hezbollah over the last two weeks engaged in the most intense fighting between them since the 2006 war in Lebanon.
- Israeli attacks have killed hundreds of people, many of them civilians, and injured thousands of others in Lebanon. Tens of thousands of people have fled southern Lebanon.
- On Tuesday, the IDF conducted an airstrike in Beirut that the Israeli military claimed killed the head of Hezbollah’s rocket and missile force Ibrahim Qabisi. The Lebanese press reported five people were killed in the strike.
- More than one million people in Israel — from the Haifa area to the border with Lebanon — have experienced the most wide-ranging rocket and drone attacks Hezbollah has launched against Israel. Most have been intercepted but several people were injured.
- Hezbollah suffered massive loses with many of its top military commanders killed and its communications systems compromised. Israeli officials said Israel destroyed a large portion of the militant group’s rocket and missile arsenal over the last few days.
- Behind the scenes: Two Israeli officials and one Western diplomat told Axios that Israeli and U.S. intelligence indicates Hezbollah reached out to the Iran in recent days and urged the Iranians to help by conducting an attack in retaliation for the Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran two months ago.
- Iran has vowed to retaliate for Haniyeh’s assassination. The U.S. and Israel at the time said they were concerned Iran would conduct another missile and drone attack against Israel, similar to the attack in April. But two months later, the Iranians still haven’t retaliated.
- In their conversations with Hezbollah in recent days, the Iranians expressed reservationabout joining the fight against Israel now and didn’t give a positive response, the officials said.
- U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin discussed the possibility of direct Iranian involvement in the fighting in Lebanon with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant during a phone call on Sunday, Israeli officials said.
- Pentagon spokesperson Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said Austin made clear to Gallant “that the U.S. remains postured to protect U.S. forces and personnel and determined to deter any regional actors from exploiting the situation or expanding the conflict.”
- What they’re saying: Pezeshkian later on Monday in an interview with CNN said Iran doesn’t want Lebanon to turn into another Gaza and pledged support for Hezbollah.
- “Hezbollah cannot stand alone against a country that is being defended and supported and supplied by Western countries, by European countries and the United States,” he said.
- AXIOS
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