Iran, allies plan joint but limited retaliation against Israel

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Iran and its proxies are preparing coordinated action meant to deter Israel but avert all-out war, sources and analysts said, after the killings of top Hamas and Hezbollah figures.

On Wednesday, Iranian officials met in Tehran with representatives of the so-called “Axis of Resistance” — a loose alliance of Tehran-backed groups hostile to Israel — to discuss retaliation for the deaths of Hamas’s leader and Hezbollah’s top military commander, said a source close to Lebanese group.

“Two scenarios were discussed: a simultaneous response from Iran and its allies or a staggered response from each party,” the source who had been briefed on the meeting told AFP, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threatened a “harsh punishment” for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which the group blamed on Israel, also vowing revenge.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned Thursday his group was bound to respond to Israel’s killing of top military commander Fuad Shukr, saying in a speech broadcast at the funeral that his death and that of Haniyeh “crossed” red lines.

Israel said it “eliminated” Shukr Tuesday in a strike on southern Beirut, describing him as Nasrallah’s “right-hand man”. He led operations in south Lebanon, where the group has exchanged near-daily fire with Israel since the Gaza war erupted.

Contrary to initial report the Hamas leader was not killed by an airstrike in Tehran . The Israeli Mossad reportedly  assassinated Haniyeh by detonating an explosive device planted in advance in his bedroom at the Iranian government official residence in Tehran, two sources with knowledge of the issue confirmed to Axios. 

“There is a very strong likelihood that the response will be coordinated… among other resistance actors,” said Amal Saad, a Hezbollah researcher and lecturer at Britain’s Cardiff University.

“It’s going to greatly deepen the tactical coordination between Iran” and the groups it supports across the region, she said, naming Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Palestinian movements Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Yemen’s Huthi rebels and Iraq’s Hashed al-Shaabi force.

A leader of the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a loose alliance of pro-Iran groups, told AFP that “Iran will lead the first response with the participation of Iraqi, Yemeni and Syrian factions, striking military targets, followed by a second response from Hezbollah”.

The Iraqi alliance has claimed attacks on US troops, most recently over the Gaza war, before suspending them in late January.

It has also claimed to have targeted Israel with drones and rockets.

The source, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, said Hezbollah may target civilians to avenge the killing of three women and two children in the strike that killed Shukr in Beirut.

France24/AFP

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