File photo: Ultra Orrthodox leaders
While the Netanyahu government is confident that the coalition will be able to weather the storm of Tuesday’s High Court ruling against ultra-Orthodox army exemption, they fear that if their proposed conscription law does not pass in the Knesset, the coalition could fall apart
After the High Court’s ruling on ultra-Orthodox Israeli army exemption, senior government sources do not predict that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition will face immediate trouble, saying that the coalition partners will be able to weather the storm in the short term.
However, the court’s ruling may be the first “real test” of the coalition’s strength and sources believe that without an agreement on the coalition’s proposed conscription law, the government will have trouble staying intact.
Netanyahu pledged to leaders of the ultra-Orthodox parties in his coalition that the law will be passed before the deadline of July 28, when the summer session of the Knesset ends.
The bill is currently being discussed in the Foreign Affairs and Security Committee of the Knesset, chaired by MK Yuli Edelstein, which worries some coalition leaders. These concerns increased after Edelstein’s statement on Tuesday that the law will only pass ‘with consensus’ from opposition parties.
In a previous discussion in the committee, Edelstein said that “It is clear to the members of the committee that the question of conscription and exemption causes a rift in the people,” adding that his “task is not to widen the rift but to reduce it.”
The coalition will try to enact only the most limited version of the court’s ruling, starting with the attorney general’s order to enlist 3000 ultra-Orthodox recruits. However, questions remain concerning the rate of recruitment growth each year, whether the Knesset will set rigid enlistment quotas, and what sanctions will be imposed if the ultra-Orthodox do not meet them.
During the coming weeks, the government is expected to lead consultations between the various coalition parties, especially with the ultra-Orthodox parties, in order to try to formulate an agreed-upon text for the law.
There are deep ideological differences regarding this issue between the different parties in the coalition, but all parties understand that if this bill falls short, the coalition will not last long.
Those around Prime Minister Netanyahu were relieved by the actions of the leaders of the ultra-Orthodox parties, who decried the court’s decision but did not threaten to leave the government.
Before the court’s ruling, coalition leaders wondered how far the ultra-Orthodox parties would go if the court ruled against them, but the general assessment was that no significant upheavals were expected within the coalition as a result of the ruling.
The ultra-Orthodox parties are not interested in dissolving the government and triggering elections, fearing that they would lose their seat in the government, and are incentivized to reach an agreement with the other coalition parties.
HAARETZ
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