Former National Security Adviser John Bolton speaks at a panel hosted by the National Council of Resistance of Iran – U.S. Representative Office (NCRI-US) at the Willard InterContinental Hotel on August 17, 2022 in Washington, DC. Bolton told Newsweek that the Biden administration is afraid to respond to Iranian-backed attacks that killed three U.S. service members.
President Joe Biden is afraid of a military response to Iran due to the ongoing war in Gaza and the potential for a wider regional conflict ahead of the November election, former White House National Security Advisor John Bolton has told Newsweek.
The president has vowed retribution but has denounced calls for a “wider war” as his administration blames Tehran for a drone strike on Sunday at the Tower 22 base that sits along a U.S.-enforced demilitarized zone between Jordan and Syria. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has taken credit for the attack that killed three U.S. personnel: Sgt. William Jerome Rivers, 46, of Carrollton, Georgia; Spc. Kennedy Ladon Sanders, 24, of Waycross, Georgia, and Spc. Breonna Alexsondria Moffett, 23, of Savannah, Georgia.
They are the first fatalities resulting from Iran-backed militias, who have been outspoken regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict some 300 miles away in Gaza. Such Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance” militias are believed to include the likes of the Nujaba Movement, Kataib Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyed al-Shuhada, Ashab al-Kahf and others.
Bolton, a Republican who served as United States ambassador from 2005 to 2006 and as the U.S. National Security Advisor from 2018 to 2019 in the Trump administration, told Newsweek via phone on Wednesday that Iran’s long-term objectives are to achieve hegemony in the Middle East and hegemony within Islam.
“It may not be going exactly to Iran’s plan given what Israel is doing to Hamas, but this is still proceeding with Iran in control—and I think pushing the limits to the extent that it can see when America finally pushes back,” Bolton said.
He continued: “I think a big part of the problem here is they’ve been watching this for some time, and they see a Biden administration absolutely paralyzed with fear of the political consequences for the president this November because of what Israel’s doing to Hamas. It’s fearful of a wider war or fearful of escalation. That’s reason for Iran to push ahead.”
While any kind of retaliation is at this juncture unknown, Bolton said the Biden administration “is sort of genetically unable to point the finger at Iran as responsible for all this.” He believes that not having a firm understanding of that strategic picture will not lead to an appropriate response.
A U.S. response could come in one or multiple forms, including targeting bases, weapons stores and training depots across Iraq and Syria belonging to Tehran-backed militias that are trained, equipped and funded by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force.
U.S. officials have said that options include striking Iranian personnel in Syria or Iraq or Iranian naval assets in the Persian Gulf. However, previous such attacks have not deterred Iranian militias, who have launched more than 170 attacks on American bases in the region since October 7.
Another option could revolve cyberattacks that disrupt Iranian-backed networks, which may be seen as a stronger response than simply sanctioning Iranian regime members and their families.
There’s also the option of choosing to directly strike Iran.
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican, said following Sunday’s attack: “The only thing the Iranian regime understands is force. Until they pay a price with their infrastructure and their personnel, the attacks on U.S. troops will continue.”
Tehran said it is privy to the possible ramifications of Sunday’s aggression but has vowed to respond in kind to any U.S. actions.
“We hear threats coming from American officials, we tell them that they have already tested us and we now know one another,” said Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ chief Hossein Salami on Wednesday, according to semi-official Tasnim news agency cited by Reuters. “No threat will be left unanswered,” he added.
Retaliatory strikes on the Houthis in Yemen and repositioning U.S. naval assets into threatening positions have so far not deterred Tehran-backed violence, spurring calls in some quarters for more direct retaliation on Iran itself.
Joint strikes conducted earlier this month on Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the Red Sea by the armed forces of the U.S. and United Kingdom, with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands, have failed to fully stop Tehran-based violence.
The geopolitics of a wider regional conflict is also top of mind in an election year.
“You’re just gonna see Iran escalate, it’s only gonna get worse from here,” GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley said on Fox News‘ Fox & Friends. “We expect America to protect them and Joe Biden did not protect those soldiers.”
Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill said Tuesday on CNN that calls for the U.S. to attack Iran, which she acknowledged is attempting to further destabilize the region, should be deliberated with caution.
“I think that we have to be very careful here,” Sherill said. “Sure, it feels good, it feels macho to say that we are going to destroy our enemies, but at this time, what the United States often does best is not simply go in half-cocked but rather gather our allies…and back down those who would create this instability.”
Democratic Senator Tim Kaine also told CNN on Tuesday that while retaliation for the killings of U.S. personnel could take place as a means of self-defense, a wider regional conflict seems like a separate proposition.
“There is no current congressional authorization allowing war against these Iranian-backed militia groups or Houthis in Yemen in the Red Sea,” Kaine said.
Bolton said the White House not being forceful enough thus far in response has increased global instability and insecurity.
“I mean, what they are focused on at the White House is the conflict,” Bolton said. “I think that’s the wrong focus. I think the focus should be the cause of the conflict, and the cause of the conflict is Iran belligerence and its feelings that it can get away with it.
“If you only deal with the manifestation of the cause, you may bring temporary respite but the cause is untreated. The manifestation will reoccur almost certainly.”
He cited the negative impact on commercial traffic in the Red Sea, which the White House said is responsible for nearly 15 percent of global seaborne trade passes through the Red Sea, including 12 percent of seaborne-traded oil and 8 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas trade.
“It’s an amazing thing,” Bolton added. “Hamas has got Israel pinned down in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah is limbering up in the north. And now you have these reports that the administration may pull American forces out of Iraq and Syria to avoid any more attacks like this.
“It would be a catastrophic mistake on the level of the administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. And it’s not just the reaction this will provoke in Tehran, but how Moscow sizes it up, how Beijing sizes it up. A lot rides on what the administration does in the next 24 or 48 hours.”
NEWSWEEK
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