Lebanon does not have any hurricanes , but people who have lived in countries that have them know exactly what we mean by being inside the eye of Hurricane .
The real political hurricane in Lebanon will show up the day after the international court will issue its first indictments in the assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister and the Lebanese are afraid it could spark a wave of violence between its Shiite and Sunni communities.
The Netherlands-based Special Tribunal for Lebanon ( STL) has so far kept silent on who it might charge in the 2005 slaying of Rafik Hariri. The fear in Lebanon is that it will accuse the powerful Shiite militant group Hezbollah.
This is precisely why many observers believe MP Walid Jumblatt had been calling for calm ever since the German magazine Der Spiegel published its report last May , which said the court had evidence that members of Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hezbollah were behind the assassination of Hariri, who was Lebanon's most prominent politician since the 1975-1990 civil war ended.
Many think that Jumblatt knows a lot more than what was published in the Der Spiegel report and this is why he is anticipating an uprising that could make May 7, 2008 look like a picnic . During the May 2008 uprising Hezbollah occupied the Sunni section of Beirut and tried unsuccessfully to occupy the Druze strongholds of Mount Lebanon.
Hezbollah has completely denied any role in the killing, and its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has warned of a backlash if the court implicates any of its members. In his speech following the publishing of the Der Spiegel report , he threatened a repeat of clashes that erupted in May 2008.
"Let everyone know that what we did on May 7 was only a wave of our hand. We are strong enough we can overturn 10 tables, not only one," Nasrallah said
Former MP Mustafa Alloush, a key member of the March 14 majority alliance said if the Hezbollah elements that are indicted are not connected to the leadership, then Hezbollah should hand them over to the tribunal in order for "civil peace not to be affected," he said.
"If they behave in a hostile way in order to cover up this matter, it will for sure lead to an outbreak of violence," he told The Associated Press.
Following the May 2008 uprising , Hezbollah was able to achieve what it failed to secure during its sit-in from November 2006 till May 2008. The Doha accord that followed the uprising granted Hezbollah veto power in the current caretaker government that was formed following the signing of that accord.
Many observers are of the opinion that General Aoun is playing into the hands of Hezbollah and Syria . Aoun has been demanding specific sovereign ministries that are a red line for the Hezbollah-led opposition such as the ministry of interior and at the same time he has been refusing to meet with Prime Minister -Designate Saad Hariri ( son of the slain former PM Rafik Hariri) to discuss his portfolio requirements in the new cabinet.
The Lebanese department of Internal Security reports directly to the ministry of interior . This ministry is currently included in the share of the president of the republic who is politically independent and is being headed by Ziad Baroud.
The situation in Lebanon is very similar to May , 2008 and the big question in Lebanon is not when the government will be formed , but when will the political hurricane erupt .
.
Thursday
8:35pm the residents of Bouiza - Nabatiyah are protesting against the installation of cellular booster stations near their homes
8:27pm Hajjar told OTV :" What we want from General Aoun is a calm speech that is based on an objective reality to explain that he has the right to claim what he wants based on the Constitution
8:26pm MP Edmond Rizk told "MTV": The request to amend the Taif disguises the real objectives . The President has not been able to exercise his authority during the past years
8 :25pm MP Kanaan told "MTV": The President of the Republic has suggested that the constitution should be reviewed and any amendment to the Taef accord will not affects the sectarian distribution. We are not willing to wait for 30 more years .
8:23pm Qamati told OTV :" the International Tribunal is politicized as was proven by the the international pressure on Syria and then the pressure was lifted and the question is where this will lead us and when will the politicization end ?
05:30 pm PM-designate Saad Hariri left Baabda palace after one hour meeting with president Suleiman, without making any statement
06:46 pm : The UN security council extended the term of UNIFIL for another year under UNSCR 1884 without modifying its rules of engagement
04:11pm President Michel Suleiman is meeting with PM-designate Saad Hariri
3:22pm Caretaker Tourism minister Marouni: Aoun is the cover for all the obstacles and this includes Syria and Iran. How can the government can be a national unity government if it begins with conditions and provocations ?
3:02pm Bassil told "Future News": Communications are stalled for now awaiting an initiative from the PM designate . Note : Hariri had invited Aoun for lunch 2 weeks ago to discuss his portfolio needs but Aoun up till this moment has refused to meet with Hariri.
2:47pm MP Michel Murr: Never in the history of Lebanon could a parliamentary bloc dictate “ I want this ministry and I want this man to be in charge of it “. ( in reference to gen Aoun) . The government must be formed before President Suleiman visits Washington, he added
2:00pm President Suleiman discussed with General Aoun's deputy Issam Abu Jamra the status of government formation and reviewed with Minister Ibrahim Najjar the latest information concerning the Baroulk illegal internet company
2:00pm Bloomberg: Tropical Storm Danny strengthened and may brush Long Island , New York and New England as a hurricane on a path for landfall in Canada at the weekend.
1:38pm Sayegh: we do not want any party to exclusively defend the country except the Lebanese army , but the others want something else ( in reference to Hezbollah and its allies)
1:25pm Telecommunications Minister Gebran Bassil: The Barouk issue has a foreign security aspect which is contact with Israel. It also has local aspects which we will not remain quiet about.
1:15pm Siniora headed a meeting at the Grand Serail to discuss the issue of Lebanese jails. The meeting was attended by Interior Minister Baroud, Justice Minister Najjar and Maj. Gen. Rifi.
1:16 pm Al Liwaa sources : Jumblatt told Hariri during their Tuesday night meeting that his supporters are not excited about him leaving March 14 alliance and the slogans of freedom, sovereignty and independence. The Druze leader told Hariri that for the first time ever he felt he could not convince his supporters in the Druze community and the Progressive Socialist Party to abandon March 14 in favor of a new stance that contradicts the principals and believes of the said alliance .
1;00 pm Syria’s ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdul-Karim Ali said after meeting former president Emile Lahoud: God willing Lebanon will be quickly able to form a government of national unity to face the challenges that are facing Lebanon
12:45 pm Forbes: The euro was steady against the dollar Thursday as more positive economic signals emerged from Germany, Europe's biggest economy.
12:30pm Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah: Hezbollah’s contacts with Hariri are aimed at replacing obstacles with dialogue that would lead to cabinet formation.
12:00 pm NBN Television : MP Michel Aoun said in an interview Wednesday that he will not visit any politician or resume negotiations on the government. "Those who want to negotiate, let them come to my home," Aoun said .
11:20 March 14 coordinator former MP Fares Soueid: The techniques used by the Syrian team in Lebanon are aimed at placing Hariri in front of impossible choices.
10:00 Reuters: Mourners gathered in Tehran on Thursday to mark the death from cancer of Al Hakim , a leading Iraqi Shi'ite cleric and politician, whose passing may intensify political turmoil ahead of Iraq's national elections.
9:30 Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak told an education conference that Israel "is more prepared than ever to face any Hezbollah attack.” He added "In the coming years, rocket and missile interception systems will be introduced in a gradual manner, and we are investing huge sums of money in a multi-layered system, which will help with the deterrence."
8:32 MP Imad al-Hout told VOL: The only solution to cabinet formation is for each side to give up some of its demands for the sake of the nation.
8:30 MP Atef Majdalani told VOL: We ask for a unified opposition stance similar to the majority stance.
7:35am MP Salim Salhab told VOL: I hope the media truce will help efforts to achieve solutions through indirect talks. A meeting should be held between Hariri and Aoun.
07:05 caretaker Information Minister Tarek Mitri: what was published is not the production of al Akhbar but was "co-produced" by al Akhbar and those that want to use the church issues for political purposes . Mitri called al Akhbar’s report “ garbage’
06:48 Visitors to Baabda told Al Akhbar: President Suleiman feels that Hariri is not doing all he can as far as engaging in serious discussions regarding the formation of the cabinet
06:30 Church sources responded to Shiite Sheikh Fadlallah who earlier attacked patriarch Sfeir : his words are inaccurate and contradict the historical facts , avoids the truth and exaggerates the meaning of power
06:15 Jumblatt sources : Hariri's last statement contributes positively to the calming climates . The escalation of Israeli threats require speeding up of consultations to form a government
06:05 opposition circles: Al-Hariri started to set up the order of priorities in line with those of MP Walid Jumblatt
05:50 sources in the majority: There is an attempt by Damascus to the evade Syrian-Saudi understanding, following the recent visit of President Bashar al-Assad to Tehran
05:38 As Safir : no government in the near future due to the absence of internal and external dynamics
Wednesday
7: 00pm Senator Edward M. Kennedy will lie in repose at the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum before his funeral at a historic Boston church where he prayed daily while his daughter successfully battled her own cancer.
6:00 pm BBC : Incumbent Hamid Karzai appears to have extended his lead in Afghanistan's presidential election, after more early results were released.
5:30pm The inhabitants of Al-Sheikh Ayash on the northern border, blocked the international highway in protest of electricity cuts.
5:25pm MP al-Jarrah called for a National Unity Cabinet capable of facing the economic crisis.
5:20pm Siniora headed a meeting on Nahr al-Bared camp and met caretaker Minister Lahoud and the UAE ambassador
5:15pm MP Zahra said that Bkirki is behind the foundation of Lebanon’s entity thus, it is not permissible to target it with strong-worded criticism
2:50pm March 14 after its meeting: The only security in Lebanon should be that provided by the state.
