The gloomy political situation that overshadowed the daily lives of the people deserves all the sacrifices from the rival leaders - they need to sacrifice their personal gains and think of building a sovereign state free from any external interference. Michel Suleiman, the future president, along with the new government that would emerge Doha's pact, should shield Lebanon from Israel and Syria and cement unity among Lebanese factions.
It is not easy for Lebanon to be located between two hostile countries that have a long history of aggression against it. Both of these countries thrive on Lebanon's failure as a state and country. Analysts have no choice except to scrutinize the variables, factors and the impact that these two countries have on the events on Lebanon's political arena. No agreement that does not take into consideration the influence of these two countries and the geographical position of Lebanon's borders along Israel and Syria: is a failed pact.
There is a school of thought that argues that Syria's intentions are different from Israel's, and that it was a balancing factor among all the Lebanese political factions during and after the civil war, but history showed other wise. Nevertheless, history had showed that both countries prospered in their economic, social and political arena while Lebanon plunged in a long civil war.
Both countries had a huge role in manipulating the Lebanon's core political currents to their advantage for decades. Syria's aim was and still is to dominate and rule Lebanon, politically, socially and militarily. Syria refuses the existence of Lebanon. It tends to control the movements of some internal factions and use them for its strategic political advantage. In this it ensures that its borders with Israel is safe and secure, and its internal front is calm.
By having thirty thousand Syrian soldiers on Lebanese soil during the last thirty years, the regime ensured that no coup would take place to overthrow their government. Not to forget the economic benefit that Syria gained by allowing Syrians to work unconditionally, while occupying Lebanon. By this Syria boosted its economy and solved the unemployment factor that haunts any country, thus draining the Lebanese economy.
Even after Syria withdrew, it is still using Lebanon's land as a battleground against Israel, and encouraging the smuggling of weapons, to many Lebanese factions including Hezbollah, by that it diverts the war from its borders to Lebanon. Syria feels that by doing that it has a bargaining card for any future peace settlement with the Jewish state. This in turn, will ensure the continuity of the rigid Syrian regime over the ruins and destruction of Lebanon, and its survival and existence as a free peaceful nation.
Israel on the other hand, is a Jewish state, proclaimed democratic by the west, nevertheless, its actions against the Palestinians and neighboring Lebanon reveals a belligerence side that dominates its existence in the Middle East. Israel existence is to thrive on war; it rebuffs the idea of settlement especially on the bases of Land in return of peace.
Within Israel, there are many political domestic problems, it discriminates against Arab Palestinians who are living within its territory, and the government treats any Jews immigrants from Ethiopia, and other third countries as second-class citizens. Its democracy is tailored to suit the European white Jews. Also there is a friction between the secular and orthodox religious groups on how to govern Israel. Yet, they are all united in wartime to preserve their homeland against their enemies. So, if Israel decided once to change its violent acts against the neighboring countries and really live in peace, their presumed unity will eventually break and domestic upheavals will occur. Thus, Israel will continue to scheme against Lebanon, and make sure that the Lebanese will continue to fight internally. Because having Lebanon on its borders living peacefully with a strong army, threatens its existence.
Lebanon is a unique case in the Middle East; its governing and constitutional system is based on religious and political party affiliation and representation. This uniqueness that allows major and minor religious groups and political parties to share power would threaten the existence of Israel, and expose its fictitious democracy and unity, which is based on bigotry and one religion, Judaism.
Having a different kind of democracy adjacent to its borders will reveal its racial discrimination against each other and expose Israel's prejudice against the Palestinians and Lebanon in front of the world. Its hostile policies against the occupied territories are deliberate so as to encourage radicalism among its inhabitants and show the world that it is fighting terrorism and not a desperate rightful people looking for a homeland. By pinpointing that, one should not forget that Israel's intentions is to keep all the Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, thus, putting pressure on the new Lebanese President and the new government to confront the armed factions within the camps, so anarchy prevails as before.
Israel's intentions always to have a feeble Lebanon, tangled in its internal dispute, so it can divert the spotlight away from its own belligerence towards the Lebanese. By Israel still occupying Sheba farm, and demonstrating capricious acts against south of Lebanon, from kidnapping farmers and shepherds, flying freely over Lebanon's sky, ignoring the sovereignty of the country and UN resolutions: encourages Hezbollah and its allies that their arms and weapons are justified to defend the south and Lebanon.
This justification is creating a problem for Lebanon's delicate and exceptional democracy. Hezbollah's artillery is a huge impediment in creating a strong Lebanese government that can rule, represent and contain all the splinter groups. Thus having Hezbollah's status and weaponry as an obstacle in any internal agreement among the Lebanese rivals encourages Israel's volatile actions to continue so as to undermine the creation of a modern state that is based on real democracy. Israel's intention against this great people and nation is to destroy the core existence of Lebanon's fabric unusual society and keep the decision of war and peace in the hands of one group and not the Lebanese government.
Another important factor that dominates Israel's agenda towards Lebanon is to occupy enough lands from Lebanon so as to ensure having enough water for its citizens, for it is known that water is scarce in Israel, while Lebanon has ample water sources. In the coming years, the next Middle East wars will be over water and not oil. Israel and Syria intentions are to keep Lebanon's unity shattered and its political parties fighting over power, thus keeping its economic, and social foundation fragile.
Taking all the above into consideration, political analysts agree that brave and decisive decision should be taken to save Lebanon from it current gridlock. Lebanon's problem has two facets to it: one aspect is having all the internal parties agree on a solid understanding for all the internal problems - apparently they did in Doha. The second issue is to take into consideration that any settlement will not succeed if Lebanon and its borders are not secured from Israel and Syria. A strong agreement that grants rights for major and minor parties is needed to be executed along with a strategic defense plan that protects Lebanon and its water resources.
This road map should have a timetable and a specific dead line to be implemented, so as to ensure the existence of Lebanon and protects it from its neighbors and foes. The Lebanese leaders irrelevant of their affiliations have to project that their decisions are based on what is best for Lebanon. This in turn will create a positive atmosphere in the country. These crucial and significant deeds will stop Syria and Israel muddling in Lebanon's internal affairs and prevent them from violating its borders repeatedly.
Certain strong measures should be taken from any government that will be formed to ensure that neither country will create a chaotic situation on the ground so as to keep Lebanon from prospering as a nation. Drastic decisions should emerge for building a democratic nation that respects its citizens, deserves many sacrifices. Allocation of funds should be distributed to create a special army units to ensure that the borders are secured between these countries. Hezbollah's arms and expertise should be an asset channeled to help the Lebanese army in their mission. This will allow Hezbollah to act as a catalyst for this new agreement and have a place as a political party, and in the same time be a part of the strategic defense plan that protects Lebanon sovereignty.
What ever the outcome of the Doha agreement was: if it did not tackle and took into consideration the negative impact of Israel and Syria on Lebanon's internal arena, will be doomed.
Tags: Doha, Hezbollah, Israel, Middle East, Peace, Shebaa Farms, source: Ya Libnan, Syria
