but never stops or dies away. The periods of violence vary between years, months, weeks or even hours. What is interesting in this bumpy history is that the "small country" was never economically weak, even though it lost much of "what would have been," which is referred to in economic terms as "lost profit and lost development." Lebanon possesses matchless advantages. Beyond mining wealth, oil or raw material, these advantages lie in the "human effort" exerted by the economic authorities, let alone a skilled and specialized labor force that knows how to produce high value added goods and services. These are the fruit of innovation and human craftsmanship, not the product of the most advanced equipment in the world.
A quick regional approach to the growth achieved in some sectors and countries reveals the numerous investment opportunities this country has lost - though we still cannot assess whether these lost opportunities were in its interest or not! The investment expansion cannot be always positive. But, the bottom line is that the small country has lost many development bases and probably some robust foundations.
During all the moving and multi-faced wars - that would hopefully end soon - the countries of the region seized the capitals fleeing from Lebanon and directed them inwards. Amidst the oil, real estate and investment boom they witnessed, the GCC countries were doomed to channel capitals towards countries that provide an environment conducive to investment. Hence the investment in Syria's tourism, real estate then industry sectors. As a matter of fact, Syria enacted many legislations, which helped it build a more liberalized and secure climate for incoming capitals, and by way of consequence attract more clients. The cycles of violence that most often hit the small nation at the beginning of summer prepares the Syrian economy, and even that of Jordan, Cyprus, Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco, for a good tourist season to the detriment of the tourism sector in Lebanon. Customers are not only Lebanese who flee an internal or external war; there are also Arabs and foreigners who move away from Lebanon to spend their vacations elsewhere, notably in the aforementioned countries. Syrian statistics show that nights spent by Lebanese in Syrian hotels double in the wake of every turmoil, and that the number of Arab tourists who flock to Syria has doubled in the past few years. The same goes for Cyprus and Jordan.
Morocco and Tunisia are known to have received varied Arab investments channeled to the construction of cities or residential and commercial towers, with a few projects agreed upon a year ago costing more than USD30 billion. Such an investment would not have been totally funneled to these countries had the security in Lebanon been more reassuring for investors. This was the case in the first four years of the third millennium, when thousands of job opportunities were created, as tourist buildings and commercial or residential complexes were erected.
Even though the enemy state (Israel) is even more advanced than modern countries in hi-tech, Lebanon is prepared to be a scientific "reserve" for advanced technology or IT. But the war did not allow a chance for it to happen. Lebanon is prepared to use solar energy, not only for the production of clean and renewable energy, but for other uses, such as charging batteries of electric cars. Israel is not the best in using Naqab desert for such a technology, especially that Lebanon basks in the sun almost all year round.
If we take into account how many times the infrastructure, institutions, houses and others were demolished and reconstructed, we can say that Lebanon equals, in its losses, every other country lying atop an active volcano that threatens to explode at any instant. With a public debt hovering around USD43 billion and annually entailing more than 40% of the total public expenditure in interest and debt service, the huge financial catastrophe comes under the spotlight, not to mention the loss of returns, whether in terms of profits or turnover, as well as the direct and indirect losses incurred by the private sector and excluded from government aids. In this respect, the tourism sector is estimated to lose USD3 billion a year.
Even if those who emigrated because of these wars save the Lebanese economy from total collapse, thanks to the multi-purpose funds they transfer annually, the country's loss of their human effort exceeds the USD5 billion they have been annually transferring since 3 years. This effort increases activity and achieves a high added value that makes up the GDP. Accordingly, the GDP, in the least estimate, could have doubled, with a per capita share of more than USD10 thousand, thus putting the country in the league of modern countries, even if at the bottom of the list.
Calculating losses does not stop at counting or surveying what was hoped to be achieved. The country failed to keep pace with the ongoing development in the countries of the region. Its airport was the first and most modern, its port was the largest, and its financial market set an example to be followed. Now, the giant regional airports dwarf the country's airport; the expansion in maritime ports exceeds what Beirut port has. And compared to the Arab financial markets renowned for their huge daily operations, the Beirut Stock Exchange look marginal.
50 years of war equal 50 years of physical killing, moral assassination, economic destruction and horrible stabbing at the country's body... Yet, in spite of all this, Lebanon achieves a growth, even if it is modest!
Photo: Hezbollah tent city in downtown Beirut is being blamed for destroying Lebanon's economy. Over 200 businesses declared bankruptcy and thousands of employees lso their jobs as a result of the Hezbollah sit-in.
