as well as of advanced surveillance installations being set up in a number of countries in the region, primarily Israel, Syria and Iran.
There are spider-web threads between the various players and events that may help prevent direct wars. However, there are also high odds that the spark of a battle could lead to unexpected wars. For instance, it may not be at the core of Iran's strategy to encourage Hezbollah in Lebanon to avenge the death of its military commander Imad Mughniyeh, assassinated in the heart of Damascus. Nevertheless, by the end of this week, Syrian authorities will announce who they believe is behind the assassination, and it is expected that they will accuse Israeli Intelligence, the Mossad. Syrian military preparations, including the mobilization of security forces and an increase in the number of troops near the border with Lebanon's Western Beqaa Valley, coincide with announcing the results of the investigation of Mughniyeh's assassination. Such developments entail the risk of matters getting out of control, either for Iran or others, especially as reports indicate that Palestinian factions similar to Fatah al-Islam, as well as other cells and networks comparable to and allied with al-Qaeda, operating in Lebanon have increased their capabilities. It seems that Iran's strategy in Iraq is based on taking the necessary steps to transform southern Iraq into an arena for pro-Iranian militias or into a federal state with an organic relationship with Iran. This is why Iran has been stimulating Shiite Iraqi militias, either to bring these militias to power through the upcoming provincial elections in October, or in anticipation of US military operations that President Bush is expected to conduct. It requires that Iran focus its efforts on southern Iraq to prevent supplies from reaching American troops.
Whether they be accurate or exaggerated, it is necessary to read through the reports of Arab, Israeli and American media over the past few days. Pro-Hezbollah Al-Akhbar newspaper claimed that Fath al-Islam had "overcome" its defeat at the hands of the Lebanese army at Nahr al-Bared. According to the newspaper, the faction has also "regained its capabilities, restructured its deployment and redefined its alliances". In another report entitled "al-Qaeda in Lebanon: What comes after Nahr al-Bared?" the newspaper mentioned the presence of dozens of small and medium-sized networks and stated that cells and networks entering Lebanon and training in the country have emerged either "in support of al-Qaeda directly or of groups similar to and allied with it".
The Israeli media, on the other hand, have conveyed warnings from a senior Israeli military intelligence officer that Hezbollah continues to prepare for the possible occurrence of a new war, and that Iran and Syria continue to supply Hezbollah with weapons, allowing it to "grow in strength". Interestingly, the officer anticipated that the operation meant to avenge Mughniyeh's assassination could be carried out by a "different organization" than Hezbollah, which may refrain from conducting a direct operation, as Israel's military commanders have made it clear that their response to any attack will be very costly for Hezbollah and its allies.
According to Israeli media, the advanced Russian anti-armor missiles sent to Syria have found their way to Hezbollah, and, according to intelligence reports, Russia thus found itself indirectly supporting Hezbollah during the July 2006 war.
Syrian forces have recently increased the number of troops near an area that has become a strategic location for Hezbollah in the Western Beqaa, namely Rashaya al-Wadi, thirty kilometers away from Syria's capital across Mount Hermon. Such Syrian reinforcements on the other side of Mount Hermon come at a time when Hezbollah is reinforcing its military capabilities in the Western Beqaa where UNIFIL forces, deployed in the South, are not present.
Such reinforcements and preparations indicate the possibility of turning the Western Beqaa into a base from which Hezbollah and non-Lebanese factions and militias backed by Syria and Iran can direct attacks that Israel considers provoking.
It is interesting to note that this movement of Syrian troops coincided with leaks in the Syrian media reporting that the Ministry of Interior would announce the results of the investigation of the Mughniyeh assassination at the end of this week. This in turn coincided with the placing of Israeli security agencies on full alert in preparation for expected attacks by Hezbollah or a "different organization" on targets inside or outside Israel. In addition, as reported by its media, Israel plans to commence what will be the largest emergency maneuvers in its history next week, not to mention that it has decided to distribute protective masks and has issued orders to its General Staff commanders not to use cell-phones during sessions for fear of surveillance by Iranian intelligence and Hezbollah. The media also mentioned that Tehran has established highly advanced surveillance facilities in Syria, a fact which was confirmed by Syria and denied by Iran, thereby generating a certain amount of confusion.
What Israel and Syria agree on are news of large-scale Syrian maneuvers and intensive training in preparation for military confrontation with Israel. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak issued a very stern warning, stating that no attack "will go by without a response", and cancelled his trip to Germany, scheduled for next week, due to the tension with Damascus, according to Israeli television.
None of these reports indicate that a decision has been made, either by Israel, Syria, Iran or Hezbollah, to wage a serious war between them. There are no indications of a strategic Iranian decision requiring Hezbollah to provoke Israel into a war, nor are there indications that the state of truce between Syria and Israel is evolving into a confrontational relationship. More likely, it seems that using Lebanon in "controlled" battles may entail miscalculations that could spark larger wars.
It seems that the Syrian leadership seeks to prepare Lebanon to be a battleground for revenge, especially as the fear of intimidation has died out at the Damascus summit. During that summit, Syria received a clear response from those it had threatened with regret if they did not attend: we will not fear you!
Some have attempted to convince the Syrian leadership of the benefit of reaching an agreement over Lebanon and allowing that country to exercise its independence as a starting point for Syria to enjoy improved relations with both the Arabs and the international community. Even they were disappointed and forced to refrain from participating in the summit with a high level of representation.
Jordanian Monarch King Abdullah II did his best to help Syrian President Bashar Assad on every level before the summit, only to have all of his efforts frustrated by Syria's responses. Consequently, he did not attend the summit himself, and Jordan was instead represented by its representative in the Arab League.
Currently, there are fears of political assassinations resuming in Lebanon, and especially of attempts against Prime Minister Fouad Siniora intended to precipitate the downfall of the government, following Damascus's success in prolonging presidential vacuum by hindering the election of a new president and paralyzing parliament with the help of its ally Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
There is an increasing feeling that the Syrian leadership may escalate to the point of provoking a war with Israel, which may earn it sympathy among the Arab population, as it has realized that no one at all, be it a state, individual or organization, can prevent the establishment of the Special Tribunal to try those suspected of assassinating former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri.
Iran, on the other hand, may wish to wait until after the American presidential elections to determine its policies, especially those concerning the use of Hezbollah in Lebanon, to better serve its strategic interests in the region in general. Iran does not seek to involve Tehran in a direct war with Israel, and it certainly prefers continuing to wage its proxy-war through Hezbollah. However, if a war is started by either a Syrian or an Israeli decision, the Mullahs may find themselves dragged behind President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in his enthusiasm to become the hero leading the Muslim masses.
Although talk about resorting to a military option by the US has rescinded following the intelligence report indicating that Iran had ended its efforts to obtain a nuclear bomb in 2003, there is now increasing interest in the information provided by China to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna regarding Iran's nuclear program, which, according to some, reveals Iran's true intentions. This coincided with accusations made by the Chinese government against Islamist extremists of seeking to instigate an uprising in Western China.
According to a report in "The American Conservative", the US president will attack Iran before leaving the White House, most likely in the form of missile strikes on military targets inside Iran. The report claims that Vice President Dick Cheney's visit to the region was connected to this issue. It also predicted that Iran would respond by blocking supplies from Kuwait and the Gulf to American troops through Southern Iraq, pointing out that Jordan could offer alternatives supply routes. Iran may also strike ships in the Gulf, destroy ports and unleash destructive militias on oil export installations and block roads between Kuwait and Iraq.
This talk of uncontrolled wars and controlled battles is not smoke without fire, as what is happening on the field reinforces it and makes it frightening. Recent developments in Basra are directly linked to Iran and its sponsorship of Shiite militias, which serve as its allies and as a shield if the Iraqi government were to cooperate with American troops in military operations against Iran.
Tehran has made a fundamental, radical and essential decision in its strategy towards the Middle East, which is to form, groom, sponsor, finance, and train militias loyal to Iran to serve as its muscle against governments, even friendly ones. This is exactly what it has done in Lebanon through Hezbollah, and this is what it has done in Iraq despite the fact that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is a close friend of Iran.
The Mullahs in Tehran do not take risks or wager on anything that is not fully under their control and in their possession. This is why they are establishing and reinforcing their networks of direct intervention and sincere allies among Shiite militias in Iraq and Lebanon, in addition to "tactical" non-Shiite militias, such as the Palestinian factions loyal to Syria, or organizations involved in direct confrontation with the US such as those similar to al-Qaeda.
Dwarfing and undermining these militias is a vital matter if the state in Iraq or Lebanon is to properly exercising its authority. Coexistence between the state and its institutions on the one hand, and militias working for another state on the other, is impossible. Dismantling and disarming these militias is essential if the state is to survive. The place of leaderships such as that of Hezbollah or the Mahdi Army is in political partnership within the structure of the state. Their place is reserved and all Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah and Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr have to do is agree to assume it.
If, however, the response is a refusal to integrate the construction of the Lebanese or Iraqi state, and an insistence on loyalty to Iran, then the battle between the state and the militia will require measures that would guarantee the state's victory at any cost and by whatever means necessary. One of these means is available in the link between Tehran and the militias in Lebanon, namely the option of informing Syria that it is time to end its relationship with Iran or else face severe costs. The new formula is making its way and ending impunity with penalties and trials. Hence the fear that Damascus may resort to waging wars and unleashing militias, either to divert attention or because it has reached the conclusion that it is time to go all the way.
Picture: God help Lebanon
Sources: Al-Hayat
Tags: Fatah al-Islam, Hezbollah, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, US
