The politically motivated attack is likely connected to the Syrian intelligence apparatus with the intent of instigating violent clashes between Lebanon's heavily armed factions in order to justify a Syrian intervention.
Analysis
Bombs exploded in two minibuses exactly 10 minutes apart at a bus stop in a mountainous Christian area near Beirut, Lebanon, around 9:30 a.m. local time Feb. 13, killing three people and wounding at least 18. The explosive devices, one containing the equivalent of about 6.6 pounds of dynamite and the other about 2.2 pounds, were planted at night in a privately owned parking lot that had minimal security. The buses, which originated from Bteghrine, exploded on a road in Ain Alaq, some 12 miles northeast of Beirut. Most of the victims were Greek Orthodox.
The attack took place on the eve of the two-year anniversary of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, an event that resulted in the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon in the summer of 2005. Lebanon's rival factions have been preparing for this date by ensuring that each group is well-armed and trained to defend itself in the event that violent clashes break out when thousands of pro-government al-Hariri supporters and members of the Hezbollah-led opposition take to the streets Feb. 14.
Though the planners of the Feb. 14 rallies have taken precautions to contain the protests, there are a number of players in Lebanon that would like to see the situation spiral out of control, namely Syria. The buses that were attacked originated in the hometown of Lebanese Defense Minister Elias Murr, who on Feb. 8 seized a truckload of explosives belonging to Hezbollah containing more than 120 mortars, Katyusha rockets and scores of mortar shell cases. Murr's refusal to return the weapons to Hezbollah, which was transporting them from the Bekaa Valley to stockpile in Beirut's Shiite-controlled southern suburb, was an embarrassment for Hezbollah's leadership.
The perpetrators of the bus bombings are likely attempting to draw a connection between the confiscation of Hezbollah's weapons and the attack in an attempt to draw the group into a violent conflict. The Bteghrine area in the upper Metn is part of the domain of influence of the Syrian Nationalist and Socialist Party, which has direct links to Syrian intelligence. While Hezbollah is unlikely to have carried out this attack against civilian targets -- and incur the political repercussions of doing so while it is in the midst of a heated protest campaign -- members of Syria's intelligence apparatus would have an interest in skyrocketing tensions in Lebanon and ensuring that the Feb. 14 anniversary is marred by violence. Doing so would give Syria the justification to intervene in its western neighbor to restore order and reclaim its military position in the country that was lost in the aftermath of the al-Hariri assassination.
The series of bombings organized by Syria in the aftermath of its withdrawal from Lebanon was directed primarily at anti-Syrian political and journalism targets in Lebanon. The attack against civilians in this latest bombing is a grave warning to Lebanon's rival factions that the country's downward spiral is only just beginning -- and that Syria will remain central to stability in Lebanon.
Picture: Two university colleagues of Michel Attar who was killed by a bus explosion, comfort each other as they grieve at the hospital in Antelias town, northeast of Beirut, Lebanon, Tuesday Feb. 13
Photo Gallery of Tuesday's Carnage
Sources: Stratfor
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