The Lebanese national debt is now an astounding $60 Billion, making Lebanon one of the highest debt-GDP ratios in the world. Distributing this amount over all Lebanese households, each family is now indebted to the tune of $75,000 as a result of the horrific succession of wars over the past 30 years, with the Israel-Hezbollah July '06 war being the most recent.
It is more illustrative to portray the Lebanese predicament in everyday terms. Imagine a Lebanese family, earning $1000 a month, with expenses exceeding $1200 monthly just to survive. Now, imagine this family with a of $75,000 debt slapped on it courtesy of the "divine" wars. Mind you, this debt is not used for kids' college education, buying a home, or creating a small business. Instead, this debt is used for repairing war damage, for paying interest on loans the country acquired to repair the destruction and help resuscitate a lifeless economy. Ironically, this havoc was wreaked by a select few, and not by our family, who was a mere spectator and a victim of the turmoil. Yet, it is now stuck with a significant part of the consequences. Clearly, this family has no realistic means to eke out a reasonable living, let alone paying off a large debt.
Do you get the picture? That's what it is like to be the government and the people of Lebanon. We are paying and will continue to pay for quite sometime for allowing Lebanon to be the military frontline of others, and the playground of prancing militias.
This is a problem for each and every one of us. Although PM Saniora and his team are doing an admirable job, especially with loud naysayers attempting to sabotage them at each step, they are not magicians that can wave a wand and the debt somehow disappears. We all must take personal responsibility in bringing order to our economic house. World financial experts helped produce the reform package, using a wealth of proven resources, and we shouldn't get caught up in analysis paralysis.
The good news is that Lebanon friends in the region and around the world want to assist. This assistance may start in the form of Paris III to help refinance the debt and obtain low-interest loans and grants. Success is predicated upon executing the promised reforms, which requires the support and personal endorsement of each and everyone.
Our choices couldn't be any clearer. Do we want to create a modern country, with strong institutions that can survive and thrive in the twenty-first century? Or, do we want to continue to stagnate, kicking the can down the road, preoccupied with politically motivated bickering, superficial debates, and foolish adventures to liberate no land?
This is not business as usual. This is a time for sober contemplation and sacrifice.
The minimum each of us can do is to recognize the urgency and understand that real reforms will ultimately lead to prosperity for our children and future generations in Lebanon. It would be indecent and a selfish betrayal to pass on to them this huge debt.
Incidentally, the family debt used to be $40,000 just a couple of years ago. But, the resistance to proposed reforms following Paris II, coupled with Hezbollah's war, skyrocketed the debt to $75,000 ... and, I'm afraid, the end is not yet in sight. Unless, of course, drastic steps are taken.
Lebanon is not unique in this regard. During and after World War II, countries in Europe and America suffered similar, and worse economic collapse. They were able to pull through using well thought out recovery plans. Each citizen of these countries was asked to contribute. War tax, ration cards for food, and other austere measures were enacted to affect an economical recovery.
I am optimistic that the Lebanese can also pull through also. The first step, of course, is recognition of the gravity and urgency of the situation, and embracing Paris III reforms.
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