free from the Syrians. A Lebanon that is free of sectarian influence. A Lebanon that is united in its resolve to reform for the better. What did they get instead?
Not much!
1- It is true that the Syrian troops are out if the country, but according to published reports the Syrian intelligence is still freely moving in Lebanon. Aoun's partnership with the Syrian Loyalists, gave them legitimacy that they lost when the Syrian troops pulled out.
2- Sectarianism is very much alive in Lebanon. The results of the elections showed clearly that voters were voting on sectarian basis. Gone were the symbols of unity shown during the March demonstrations.
3- The opposition is divided, thanks to the failed attempt to negotiate a deal with General Aoun. The Kornet Shahwan movement was badly wounded if not completely dead after the Mount Lebanon elections. If the momentum continues in the fourth round in Northern Lebanon's elections, say goodbye to the majority that was projected by Saad Hariri. Aoun is fielding support from the Syrian loyalists, such as former PM Omar Karami and Suleiman Franjieh, as he did in Mount Lebanon and Zahle. His alliance with the Syrian loyalists will not be free, God knows what the price will be!
4- Jumblatt and Hariri's alliance with Speaker Nabih Berri and Hezbollah will also not be free. Hezbollah has an agenda that may not fit well with the new Lebanon that the Cedar Revolution marchers called for. The presence of the arms in the hands of Hezbollah is a destabilizing factor, if not properly controlled by a strong government.
The question remains: Will the new government complete the political revolution that million marchers hoped for?
If General Aoun has to pay back his debt to the Syrian Loyalists and if the opposition has to pay back its debt to Hezbollah and Amal, then how can we expect a strong government.
For a starter, the Cedar revolution called for the resignation of Emile Lahoud, whose term was illegally extended, when the Syrians forced the Lebanese parliament to change the Lebanese constitution in order to extend his term. If Aoun has his way, he does not want to remove the president. Aoun also has an agenda. Most political observers see Aoun as the next president now that Nassib Lahoud, the Kornet Shahwan front runner is out. This is the down payment to Syria's loyalists.
As long as Lahoud is in power we cannot expect Aoun to pass any of the reforms he called for. Lahoud was described by Assad as "my personal representative in Lebanon." How can Lebanon reform if its president is a Syrian puppet?
Similarly with the Jumblatt and Hariri's alliance. The first question that will be raised after the formation of the new government is the disarming of Hezbollah? But who will dare raise the issue?
If it was not for Hezbollah, Jumblatt and Hariri would not have been able to win so many seats in the New parliament. Hezbollah will emerge with one of the largest blocks in the new government and nobody expects Hezbollah to vote for disarming themselves.
Similarly, since the Syrian loyalists will be waiting for instructions from Syria, we do not expect them to vote for disarming Hezbollah. Hence Aoun has to pay again for his alliance with the Syrian loyalists.
The only way out from this mess is for the US to interfere with Israel, to negotiate an exit from the Shebaa farms. It is neither in the national interest of Israel nor in the national interest of the new Lebanon to have a destabilized border. Once Israel pulls out, Hezbollah will not be compelled to keep its arms. This issue is of paramount importance to the future of the region, if peace is the desired objective of all parties.
The third issue that will come out is reforming the constitution of the country. The answer is who is going to do it?
The elections will bring back most of the old faces. These are the faces the revolution rose against. Could you for one second have expected any of the marchers on March 14, to call for the return of people like Michel Murr? No for the question, but yes he is back in and Nassib Lahoud is out.
How could you for once expect those people that benefited from the corruption in a big way, call for any reforms? Again this is the price, the Cedar Revolution has to pay this time.
What this will mean? More national debt for a country that is heavily indebted. We will be mortgaging our future to satisfy corrupt politicians.
At Ya Libnan we like to think positively, because hope is our only hope.
What we are hoping for is that the alliances that were formed were strictly for political convenience in election time only. We certainly hope that the elected leadership will rise to the occasion and thereby fulfill the promises made to those that marched on March 14. We hope that the new leadership will think Lebanon.
If the leadership will continue with the status quo then the people that marched will feel cheated... The efforts of the million that marched will go to waste... Lebanon will be in a worse mess.
Sources: Ya Libnan
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