Here is what the new parliament looks like:

General Aoun and his allies: 21 members
Hezbollah and Berri alliance: 35
Hariri, Jumblatt, Geagea & allies: 72
Total no. of members: 128

The majority of the seats are held by Hariri and allies. They represent 56.25% of the total membership. Hariri was aiming for 85 to 90 members or 2/3 majority, in order to force president Lahoud to resign. This obviously did not happen, in spite of the sweeping victory in the North. Aoun's split from the opposition and his sweeping victory in Mount Lebanon, prevented Hariri and allies from achieving the 2/3 majority.

The competition in the elections was between the pro Syrians and the anti Syrians.

General Aoun and his allies

Even though General Aoun was against Syria (and he prided himself about his involvement in the 1559 UN resolution, which essentially called for the withdrawal of the Syrians from Lebanon) he allied himself with pro Syrian politicians. Many of the members in his alliance are known Syrian loyalists.

Aoun was hoping for the presidency, but he burnt all his bridges with the anti Syrian allies. The parliament in Lebanon elects the president. Therefore, as matters stand now Aoun has no chance of becoming the next president, unless an external power forces Aoun on the Parliament, like Syria did in 2004 when it forced the Lebanese parliament to amend the constitution, to renew Lahoud's term for another 3 years.

The president of Lebanon according to the Mithaq Alwatani (unwritten amendment to the constitution) and according to the Taif Accord should be a Maronite Christian. The Christian Maronites are the largest Christian community in Lebanon.

Aoun campaigned for reforms and changes. Some of the issues are good for the country. Kornet Shahwan gathering adopted some of the same issues after their first Bristol meeting. It remains to be seen, how effective Aoun will be in getting the parliament to debate and adopt some of these issues.

In his victory last week, Aoun shattered the traditional Christian leadership and became the undisputed leader of the Christian Maronites. However, the victory of Streda Geagea, wife of Samir Geagea, the jailed leader of the Lebanese Forces, a Maronite Christian also, may represent a challenge to Aoun in his quest to speak for all the Christians. Samir Geagea is expected to be released from Jail by the new parliament.

Hezbollah and Amal

Even though Hezbollah and Berri (leader of Amal) are well known Syrian loyalists, they allied themselves with Hariri and Jumblatt in the elections. Hezbollah's support to Jumblatt in Baabda - Aley district, which was dubbed "the mother of all battles", was a key factor behind Jumblatt's victory.

Hezbollah and Berri are both Shiite Moslems. Shiites are about 35% of the Lebanese population. The speaker of the parliament according to the Mithaq Alwatani (unwritten amendment to the constitution) and according to the Taif Accord should be a Shiite Moslem. For the past 13 years, Nabih Berri has been the speaker.

When Jumblatt was asked in a phone interview on June 19 after the elections were completed in the North, who the speaker will be? He quickly responded by saying: "Nabih Berri". When he was pressed further by the interviewer (Marcel Ghanim on LBC TV), he said "It will be Berri, unless Hezbollah wants to nominate one of their members". It is obvious therefore, the Speaker will be either from Amal (Berri's movement) or Hezbollah.

The main international issue that remains to be resolved in order to comply fully with UN resolution 1559 is the disarming of Hezbollah. The US considers Hezbollah a terrorist militia organization which should be disarmed, while the Lebanese consider them a national liberating force. Hezbollah was credited with liberating the South of Lebanon by forcing Israel to withdraw from most of the land they occupied after the 1982 invasion of Lebanon.

Israel continues to occupy Shebaa, a farming area alongside the borders. If Israel Pulls out, it will be possible to press for disarming Hezbollah. Otherwise, this will be a very difficult task to handle. The United States and Europe should convince Israel to withdraw, if peace is the desired alternative for this part of the world.

Hariri, Jumblatt and Allies

Saad Hariri, son of the slain Prime Minister Rafik Hariri won big and established himself as the undisputed leader of the Sunnite Moslems. The prime minister in Lebanon according to the Mithaq Alwatani (unwritten amendment to the consitution) and according to the Taif Accord, should be a Sunnite Moslem.

The President will name the Prime minister, based on consultations with the parliament. The PM then forms a government and presents it to the Parliament for a vote of confidence. Since Hariri holds the majority, the president should pick him as the first choice, to be the Prime Minister. It is up to Hariri to accept the post or not. Since Hariri has called for the removal of Lahoud, their relationship will be tense and could result in forcing Lahoud to quit. As a result of the split within the ranks of the opposition, Lahoud was the biggest winner in the elections. A two thirds majority is needed to remove him from power.

Saad Hariri campaigned hard in the North of Lebanon and his efforts paid off handsomely. He and his allies won all the 28 seats allotted for the North. He emerged as the biggest winner in this election. Saad, may be new to politics, but he capitalized on his father's image and used his father's election machine very effectively. He won the admiration of many Lebanese as the election results have shown

Walid Jumblatt maintained his position as the only leader of the Druze Community. The other Druze leader, Talal Arslan, a staunch pro-Syrian who allied himself with General Aoun lost the elections. Arslan's family was always represented in the parliament ever since Lebanon got its independence in 1943.

The Druze, an offshoot of Islam played leading political roles throughout the history of Lebanon. Walid, as his father before him played the role of the king maker. Since the Druze are a minority Jumblatt cannot be the president. As in the case of Saad Hariri, Kamal Jumblatt, Walid's father was also assassinated in 1977. Similarly Syria was blamed for the assassination, but Syria as in the case of Rafik Hariri, denied any involvement.

Jumblatt, the Progressive Socialist Party chief, led the anti Syrian opposition in forcing Syria out of Lebanon. His relationship with Syria was always tense ( even though to outsiders he seemed at some point in his political career to have had a good relationship with them) ever since he took over in 1977. He always believed that Syria will kill him one day, just like they killed his father. He is a very shrewd politician and uses his sixth sense very effectively.

Many say: "Jumblatt has the highest antenna", for being in the right place at the right time, all the time. One thing that could be said about Jumblatt and his father before him is that they are Nationalist Leaders, that are very well respected both domestically and internationally.

The Jumblatts always believed in and fought for the sovereignty and independence of Lebanon. They always believed that Syria's presence in Lebanon was an interference in Lebanese internal affairs. Even though they called for Syria's withdrawal, they always insisted that Lebanon and Syria should be friendly neighbors and should treat each other as equals. He said, "our relationship with Syria should be "correct, fair and good"

We will know soon how the new parliament will attempt to govern the country. Saad Hariri said today during his press conference: "The elections are now behind us. We need to get to work and very quickly, to tackle the problems of the country. We stretch our arms to all the members of the parliament to work together for the sake of Lebanon."

The million Lebanese that marched on March 14, demanded unity and reforms. Lets hope the new parliament will be able to unify the country and get immediately into the business of reforming Lebanon to make it a model of democracy for the region. It may be too much to expect, but at least we can hope.

Sources: Ya Libnan