Some surprises are expected as a result of the return of General Michel Aoun from exile.

The elections will be also held this Sunday in the Bekaa region, but most of the attention will be focused on Mt. Lebanon, where we will also witness the mother of all battles in the Aley Baabda district.
To help our readers in understanding the politics of Mount Lebanon we are providing some statistical information in a tabulated format. The key issue is the voter turnout.

The Mount Lebanon region is divided into 4 districts. This is by far the largest electoral region in lebanon

1- District no. 1 and district no. 2 are mainly Christian strongholds.
The District 1 and 2 are mainly Christians. These battles will decide future Christian leadership. Since Aoun's constituency is an unknown factor, it will be difficult to predict the outcome. All the candidates are urging voters to go to the polls and vote, but some candidates may benefit from heavy voter turnout and some may not.

2- District no. 3
In 2000 the Christian vote turnout was very low. Many called for election boycott that year. This time, even though the Christian community is not happy at all about the 2000 electoral law under which the elections are being held, there is more excitement and emotions are high, due to the fact that Syria is out, Aoun is in and Samir Geagea, the jailed leader of the Lebanese forces will be soon freed. Analysts expect 2005 turnout to be in 50 % + range
Analysts Expect surprises if Christian turnout is heavy.

This district will be the mother of all battles.

Aoun is allied with the pro Syrian Talal Arslan and Michel Murr, while Jumblatt is allied with the Lebanese forces, Kornet Shahwan, Hezbollah, Amine Gemayel and Hariri.

Since Hezbollah has declared its support to Jumblatt, this could tilt the results in his favor. But since Shiite votes in this region are about 15 % of the total, the influence of the Hezbollah vote could be easily outweighed by a heavy turnout by the Christian community, which is about 50 % of the total vote.

3- District no. 4
Jumblatt the head of the only complete list and Marwan Hamade have both won since they were unopposed. For this reason we expect similar or lower turnout this year
In 2000 the Christian vote turnout was low.
In 2000 the Moslem vote turnout was very high

I traveled the Chouf region the last couple of days. Unlike other areas of Lebanon, you do not feel the emotions of elections here and you rarely see a picture of Jumblatt. In other parts of Lebanon all the buildings are polluted with pictures of Candidates.

We do not expect any surprises in this district, Jumblatt is projected to win all the contested seats. The recent news about Syrian intelligence continued presence in Lebanon could help to increase thelevel of emotions in this district and therfby lead to heavier voter turnout.

Sources: Ya Libnan, Al Nahar