Many political analysts think that there is more to Aoun's behavior than meets the eye. The cause for this doubt started in Paris.

President Lahoud, in a sudden change of mood, sent a personal representative to meet Aoun in Paris to discuss, coordinate and arrange for his return.

General Aoun sent a personal representative to Syria on a special mission to meet with the top Syrian leadership prior to his return.

When Aoun landed in Beirut, he tried to hijack the efforts of the million Lebanese that marched in the streets of Beirut under the banner of the Cedar Revolution, by claiming full credit for Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon. He claimed that the only reason that Syria pulled out was the UN resolution 1559, which was a result of his statements in front of the US House of Representatives sub-committee when they were holding the hearings on the "Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Act" bill.

Aoun did not give any credit to the anti Syrian opposition. Instead he attacked them one by one starting with their leader, Walid Jumblatt.

Aoun attempted to negotiate with Jumblatt and Hariri's representatives joint electoral lists for the 2005 elections. The negotiations failed upon Aoun's insistence to name Issam Abu Jambra, a retired general and friend of his for the seat in Aley Baabda electoral district. The opposition refused, but Issam Abu Jambra is not on Aoun's list now either. Did Aoun negotiate in good faith ?

Political observers are of the belief that Aoun did not want the negotiations to succeed. He created the "Abu Jambra" obstacle as an exit strategy. In an interview Saturday June 11, on Al Manar TV channel in which Aoun's representative Haddad was debating PSP's representative Fayad, Haddad said " thanks God the negotiations between Aoun and Jumblatt failed"

Aoun's defense of Lahoud is another big cause of concern. While all the opposition called for lahoud's resignation, Aoun defended Lahoud.
When Al Nahar's Columnist Samir Kassir was assassinated the opposition blamed Syria and Lahoud for the crime and called for Lahoud's resignation. Aoun on the other hand came out in defense of Lahoud, blaming instead the current Prime Minister Mikati and the interior minister Sabaa.

The biggest shock for the anti Syrian opposition was the announcement by Aoun of his alliance with Talal Arslan and Michel Murr. The cause for the shock was, while Aoun is calling for "reform and change" he is aligning himself with staunch pro Syrians. Observers feel that Aoun will not be able to make any changes, since his allies will stand in his way. After all the Cedar Revolution was against people like Arslan and Aoun who were seen as Syria's puppets and the roots of the political corruption in Lebanon.
What made Aoun take the U turn in Syria's favor? After all he is the one who was quoted saying : " everyone should refrain from cooperating with the authority figures since they can only be pro-Syrian." as reported in Daily Star on April 05, 2004

Yesterday on Kalam El Nass LBC TV program with Marcel Ghanem, one of the opposition leaders, Fares Saeed called and challenged General Aoun for a debate today, but unfortunately he turned down the offer, suggesting instead a debate after the elections. Gebran Tueni, Managing Director of Al Nahar also called and urged Aoun to debate Saeed to clear the issues, but Aoun refused.

The question remains: Did Aoun strike a deal with Syria ?

Whether he did or not, the only beneficiary from the division of the opposition is Syria. Many observers think that since Syria will continue to play a role in the internal politics of Lebanon, Aoun's pro Syria's actions will create the ambiance required to name him as the next president to replace Lahoud. He will emerge as the " white Knight ", whether before the extended term of Lahoud will expire or after the expiration date.

If the observers are correct in their analysis, this will be another disaster for Lebanon. Aoun will be another Lahoud. We would be "replacing one general with another" as Al Hayat newspaper wrote in its June 11, 2005 article under " Did Aoun strike a deal with Lahoud". In his last meeting with the slain Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri, Bashar Al Assad called Lahoud " my personal representative in Lebanon". Do the Lebanese want their president to be a foreign agent ?

We hope the observers are wrong, and that Michel Aoun, who claims to be a patriotic Lebanese will think Lebanon first. He could assume the role of the "father" of opposition. It is only through a united Lebanese opposition changes and reforms could be made. It may be too late for the General to change his strategy, but as they say " better late than never".

Wake up General !! Don't waste your 15 years of exile on the Syrians. Think Lebanon!

Sources: Ya Libnan, Al Hayat, Daily Star, Al Nahar