No Rush to War

Amid the alarming violence in the Arab world, a new report about the costs of a potential war with Iran got lost this week. It says an attack by the United States could set back Iran’s nuclear program four years at most, while a more ambitious goal — ensuring Iran never reconstitutes its nuclear program or ousting the regime — would involve a multiyear conflict that could engulf the region

The significance of the report by The Iran Project is not just its sober analysis but the nearly three dozen respected national security experts from both political parties who signed it: including two former national security advisers, Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Brzezinski; former Undersecretary of State Thomas Pickering; and the retired Gen. Anthony Zinni.

Yet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel is trying to browbeat President Obama into a pre-emptive strike. On Tuesday, he demanded that the United States set a red line for military action and said those who refuse “don’t have a moral right to place a red light before Israel.” Later, Mr. Obama telephoned him and rejected the appeal. On Friday, Mr. Netanyahu suggested in an interview that Israel cannot entirely rely on the United States to act against Iran’s program.

Leaders need flexibility and ambiguity, not just hard and fast red lines. And it is dangerous for Mr. Netanyahu to try to push the president into a corner publicly and raise questions about Washington. Is that really the message he wants to send to Tehran?

Leaders need flexibility and ambiguity, not just hard and fast red lines. And it is dangerous for Mr. Netanyahu to try to push the president into a corner publicly and raise questions about Washington. Is that really the message he wants to send to Tehran?

There is no reason to doubt President Obama’s oft-repeated commitment to keep Iran from having a nuclear weapon. But 70 percent of Americans oppose a unilateral strike on Iran, according to a new poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and 59 percent said if Israel bombs Iran and ignites a war, the United States should not come to its ally’s defense.

Iran is advancing its nuclear program in defiance of the United Nations Security Council. That’s a danger to Israel, the region and all efforts to curb proliferation. But administration officials and many other experts say Iran is still a year or more away from producing an actual weapon, and, if it begins to build one, they will know in time to take retaliatory action.

The best strategy is for Israel to work with the United States and other major powers to tighten sanctions while pursuing negotiations on a deal. It is a long shot, but there is time to talk. And that’s where the focus must be.

NY Times

  • 5thDrawer

    What the Islamists and the Ayatolla fail to understand is that making a bomb isn’t going to make ‘the west’ any more Islamic in thought than it is now. And if ‘the west’ actually finally got rid of all it’s bombs and Iran was the only one with them, it still couldn’t control the thoughts of ‘the west’ or make it cower at the Supreme’s feet … but ‘mankind’ will be gone if they decide to use them … which I suppose is the real fear. They seem to be just silly enough to do it most of the time.
    Although they say they don’t intend anything but ‘peaceful’ use, they are also not willing to show that. So who believes?

    • saoudiAhbal

      why are you saying ayatollah? where did you see an ayatollah in this mob please? rectify or apologise

      • 5thDrawer

        Only two guys in the picture talking about Iran. So … Mr Supreme, of course. No apology.
        Did you have a hangover from the mob-scenes?? ;-)))

        • saoudiAhbal

          you are free not to apologise but you would have appeared much bigger rather greater; its your choice; as far as i am concerned till proven otherwise, i will call it calomniation

      • 5thDrawer

        Only two guys in the picture talking about Iran. So … Mr Supreme, of course. No apology.
        Did you have a hangover from the mob-scenes?? ;-)))

        • saoudiAhbal

          you are free not to apologise but you would have appeared much bigger rather greater; its your choice; as far as i am concerned till proven otherwise, i will call it calomniation

    • dateam

      is this really about a suppossed bomb? if they had it they cant use it? israel has it and it cant use it either? if they want it are they not entitled to it when they are also threatened? 45 usa military bases surrounding the country???? afghanistan and iraq both invaded also border it? do people just still believe all the hype? do people think they would be stupid enough to hit israel or america? can anyone remeber the last time iran invaded anyone? to cut a long story short in 1952 mossadeq was voted by time magazine person of the year for his democratic reforms and economic progress….in 1953 cia and mi6 sponsored coup to overthrow him because he wanted to nationalise the oil….shah comes in backed by the amricans and brits 40% of oil revenue to usa and brits each 16% in shas pocket and 4% for the people….you had a society where people couldnt afford to buy meat under the shah and people were buying meat for their dogs…..was not the shah brutal with his savvak? what was the difference between the shah? mubarak?ghadaffi? bin yaziz?saleh?khlifas?jordan monarchy,saudi monarchy? in 1979 the people rose aginst him and overthrew him a so called mini persian spring? was it not the will of the people that allowed it to happen? what is the difference between then and now? since 1979 you can not deny that iran has become powerful both economically and militarily…what became of the so called dictators of the arab spring were they not all allied to the united states?? where is their progression in society both socially and economically ? or is it fair to say that in the middle east advancement may not happen unless uncle sam and israel agree to it? toe the line or be towed? since 1979 they got to where they are with the wqhole world against them they have a diverse society even jews who have a seat in parliament….we have a population of 4million and can not provide electricty they have a population of 80million so imagine what options they need to sustain their development….now read between the lines and look at what has transpired in lebanon yesterday…….the pope arrived and came through beirut from the airport where people adorned the streets for him christians , and muslims alike ……now look what happened in tripoli where they burnt pictures and posters of him……was it really because of that stupid movie? or was it because he stated that the countries need to stop arming the opposition in syria? if their going to tear up pictures of the pope then imagine if assad falls what they are going to do………just a thought god bless

      • saoudiAhbal

        am glad you are finally  seeing the light: america puts pawns and removes them like it wants

      • saoudiAhbal

        am glad you are finally  seeing the light: america puts pawns and removes them like it wants

      • 5thDrawer

        Good one, Dateam. Big Business … and even Americans are up against it.

      • Hugo7

         
        EXCELLENT!
        Assad is not going to fall, just watch it. And no revolution is going in Syria, its a proxy war, fought for the US by the puppet regime from SaudiArabia, with their thugs…Salafists. As they try to weaken Iran, by taking away Assad. However Russia and China will keep the west busy there, and eventually all this back fire onto SaudiArabia, and the Al Saud regime will fall just as well, eventually. How can it not. It is the most oppressive regime in the region, just hushed up from the west, because we want their oil. If Assad would fall, it will be another Iraq, decades of extreme violence, ….AND where does that leave the little man, trying to have a life and put food on the table for their family. No body is better than the other, neither Muslim, nor Christian. We are all humans, are we???

      • Mahdi Kenaani

        thank you for a wonderful post :)

    • wargame1

      There are currently eight states that have successfully detonated nuclear weapons.Five are considered to be “nuclear-weapon states”  From a high of 65,000 active weapons in 1985, there are now some 4,400 active nuclear warheads and some 19,000 total nuclear warheads in the world in 2012. Many of the decommissioned weapons were simply stored or partially dismantled, not destroyed. 

      Nuke was used in Japan where more than 120000 people died instantly and for generations they are suffering. In Iraq, Afghanistan ,Bosnia and Kosovo a total 400000 equivalent of a Hiroshima/Nagasaki Nuke were dropped in a different form. This is called depleted uranium.The heaviest metal and is coated to every bomb , bullets etc. This is how many Nation dispose its nuke wast. 

      Nuke will possibly be used again in the Middle east when the European,American,Israel  will face a total defeat the only option they will have is to charge nukes. The country who posses these bomb are criminal already.Those countries also possess biological weapon too. The bomb destroy anything and everything.

      • 5thDrawer

        And one furthur note, Wargame.
        World background-radiation levels have risen and continue to rise … and we don’t yet know all the effects of that on life on the planet. But I venture to say we cannot evolve fast enough ….

    • dateam

      Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is trapped in reflection theory. He was allegedly himself involved in illegally smuggling nuclear triggers out of the US, and he assumes that Iran desperately wants a nuclear weapon as well. But Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has given a fatwa against nukes, and there is no solid intelligence pointing to an Iranian weapons program. Iran can’t be close to having a weapon if it doesn’t have a weapons program.
      He has no credibility left on such warnings.
      Scott Peterson at the Christian Science Monitor did a useful timeline for dire Israeli and US predictions of an imminent Iranian nuclear weapon, beginning 20 years ago.
      1992: Israeli member of parliament Binyamin Netanyahu predicts that Iran was “3 to 5 years” from having a nuclear weapon.
      1992: Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres predicts an Iranian nuclear warhead by 1999 to French TV.
      1995: The New York Times quotes US and Israeli officials saying that Iran would have the bomb by 2000.
      1998: Donald Rumsfeld tells Congress that Iran could have an intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit the US by 2003.

  • 5thDrawer

    What the Islamists and the Ayatolla fail to understand is that making a bomb isn’t going to make ‘the west’ any more Islamic in thought than it is now. And if ‘the west’ actually finally got rid of all it’s bombs and Iran was the only one with them, it still couldn’t control the thoughts of ‘the west’ or make it cower at the Supreme’s feet … but ‘mankind’ will be gone if they decide to use them … which I suppose is the real fear. They seem to be just silly enough to do it most of the time.
    Although they say they don’t intend anything but ‘peaceful’ use, they are also not willing to show that. So who believes?

  • 5thDrawer

    What the Islamists and the Ayatolla fail to understand is that making a bomb isn’t going to make ‘the west’ any more Islamic in thought than it is now. And if ‘the west’ actually finally got rid of all it’s bombs and Iran was the only one with them, it still couldn’t control the thoughts of ‘the west’ or make it cower at the Supreme’s feet … but ‘mankind’ will be gone if they decide to use them … which I suppose is the real fear. They seem to be just silly enough to do it most of the time.
    Although they say they don’t intend anything but ‘peaceful’ use, they are also not willing to show that. So who believes?

    • saoudiAhbal

      why are you saying ayatollah? where did you see an ayatollah in this mob please? rectify or apologise

      • 5thDrawer

        Only two guys in the picture talking about Iran. So … Mr Supreme, of course. No apology.
        Did you have a hangover from the mob-scenes?? ;-)))

        • saoudiAhbal

          you are free not to apologise but you would have appeared much bigger rather greater; its your choice; as far as i am concerned till proven otherwise, i will call it calomniation

    • dateam

      is this really about a suppossed bomb? if they had it they cant use it? israel has it and it cant use it either? if they want it are they not entitled to it when they are also threatened? 45 usa military bases surrounding the country???? afghanistan and iraq both invaded also border it? do people just still believe all the hype? do people think they would be stupid enough to hit israel or america? can anyone remeber the last time iran invaded anyone? to cut a long story short in 1952 mossadeq was voted by time magazine person of the year for his democratic reforms and economic progress….in 1953 cia and mi6 sponsored coup to overthrow him because he wanted to nationalise the oil….shah comes in backed by the amricans and brits 40% of oil revenue to usa and brits each 16% in shas pocket and 4% for the people….you had a society where people couldnt afford to buy meat under the shah and people were buying meat for their dogs…..was not the shah brutal with his savvak? what was the difference between the shah? mubarak?ghadaffi? bin yaziz?saleh?khlifas?jordan monarchy,saudi monarchy? in 1979 the people rose aginst him and overthrew him a so called mini persian spring? was it not the will of the people that allowed it to happen? what is the difference between then and now? since 1979 you can not deny that iran has become powerful both economically and militarily…what became of the so called dictators of the arab spring were they not all allied to the united states?? where is their progression in society both socially and economically ? or is it fair to say that in the middle east advancement may not happen unless uncle sam and israel agree to it? toe the line or be towed? since 1979 they got to where they are with the wqhole world against them they have a diverse society even jews who have a seat in parliament….we have a population of 4million and can not provide electricty they have a population of 80million so imagine what options they need to sustain their development….now read between the lines and look at what has transpired in lebanon yesterday…….the pope arrived and came through beirut from the airport where people adorned the streets for him christians , and muslims alike ……now look what happened in tripoli where they burnt pictures and posters of him……was it really because of that stupid movie? or was it because he stated that the countries need to stop arming the opposition in syria? if their going to tear up pictures of the pope then imagine if assad falls what they are going to do………just a thought god bless

      • saoudiAhbal

        am glad you are finally  seeing the light: america puts pawns and removes them like it wants

      • 5thDrawer

        Good one, Dateam. Big Business … and even Americans are up against it.

      • Hugo7

         
        EXCELLENT!
        Assad is not going to fall, just watch it. And no revolution is going in Syria, its a proxy war, fought for the US by the puppet regime from SaudiArabia, with their thugs…Salafists. As they try to weaken Iran, by taking away Assad. However Russia and China will keep the west busy there, and eventually all this back fire onto SaudiArabia, and the Al Saud regime will fall just as well, eventually. How can it not. It is the most oppressive regime in the region, just hushed up from the west, because we want their oil. If Assad would fall, it will be another Iraq, decades of extreme violence, ….AND where does that leave the little man, trying to have a life and put food on the table for their family. No body is better than the other, neither Muslim, nor Christian. We are all humans, are we???

      • Mahdi Kenaani

        thank you for a wonderful post :)

    • wargame1

      There are currently eight states that have successfully detonated nuclear weapons.Five are considered to be “nuclear-weapon states”  From a high of 65,000 active weapons in 1985, there are now some 4,400 active nuclear warheads and some 19,000 total nuclear warheads in the world in 2012. Many of the decommissioned weapons were simply stored or partially dismantled, not destroyed. 

      Nuke was used in Japan where more than 120000 people died instantly and for generations they are suffering. In Iraq, Afghanistan ,Bosnia and Kosovo a total 400000 equivalent of a Hiroshima/Nagasaki Nuke were dropped in a different form. This is called depleted uranium.The heaviest metal and is coated to every bomb , bullets etc. This is how many Nation dispose its nuke wast. 

      Nuke will possibly be used again in the Middle east when the European,American,Israel  will face a total defeat the only option they will have is to charge nukes. The country who posses these bomb are criminal already.Those countries also possess biological weapon too. The bomb destroy anything and everything.

      • 5thDrawer

        And one furthur note, Wargame.
        World background-radiation levels have risen and continue to rise … and we don’t yet know all the effects of that on life on the planet. But I venture to say we cannot evolve fast enough ….

    • dateam

      Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is trapped in reflection theory. He was allegedly himself involved in illegally smuggling nuclear triggers out of the US, and he assumes that Iran desperately wants a nuclear weapon as well. But Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has given a fatwa against nukes, and there is no solid intelligence pointing to an Iranian weapons program. Iran can’t be close to having a weapon if it doesn’t have a weapons program.
      He has no credibility left on such warnings.
      Scott Peterson at the Christian Science Monitor did a useful timeline for dire Israeli and US predictions of an imminent Iranian nuclear weapon, beginning 20 years ago.
      1992: Israeli member of parliament Binyamin Netanyahu predicts that Iran was “3 to 5 years” from having a nuclear weapon.
      1992: Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres predicts an Iranian nuclear warhead by 1999 to French TV.
      1995: The New York Times quotes US and Israeli officials saying that Iran would have the bomb by 2000.
      1998: Donald Rumsfeld tells Congress that Iran could have an intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit the US by 2003.

  • wargame1

    The fall of Syrian regime will exhilarate the Iraqi Mujaheddin to renew their attack on the US/Irani puppet in Iraq.This is where the hidden math is; USA want to attack Iran !! very good but then why USA installed two pro Iranian shia regime in Iraq and in Afghanistan with the help of Iran? If USA really wants to attack Iran then why did it pull out its army from Iraq? Here is the conflict of interest. USA wish to keep Bashar and Iranian majoosis in Power so they can take care of Nuri Al maliki and Hamid Karzai. 
    But this game is now backfiring due to the unexpected Syrian revolution. USA and the rest of the world outwardly support the revolution because there is no valid reason to support Bashar. But fall of Bashar will certainly weaken Hezbushaitan and the Iraqi puppet. Fall of Karzai Government or any withdrawal from Afghanistan will have the same result. How long can the coalition force stay there for a total economic bankruptcy. 

    But the inevitable event is coming to pass. The coalition force now realizes that these puppets wont last very long thats why they have been trying to negotiate with the Taliban. Negotiation with the Taliban means a reverse policy.The occupation force never thought of a situation like this so it is inconceivable for many to think the impossible. But we did see the Negotiation effort with the same old taliban! what a shame….

    Iran , Russia, Israel and China sensed it very well; So the useless war by mouth of Israel attacking Iran is nonsense. As long as USA has the Zionist neocon influence, USA will keep aiding Iran as usual. So who will attack Iran ? 

    Answer: The Taliban , Syrian and Iraqi mujaheddin will attack Iran.The Europeans who are now bogged down in Afghanistan wont maintain the puppet anymore. So America and Israel will not attack Iran but The Taliban, Iraqi and Syrian Mujaheddin will together with NATO under a treaty.In the past the Afghan Mujaheddin had such treaty with the Europeans against Russia which was broken so this forth coming treaty will be broken too after the conquest of Iran. 

    So who ever thinks Iran will be attacked is correct but the attacker are not Israel nor USA but the Muslims and the European(Roman) . USA is also representing the Romans but are heavily infiltrated by the Khazars so they cant function as they way they want. 

    We might see an attack on Iran and on Russia at the end of 2013 or early 2014; 

    • dateam

      where do you get your information from? America is part of NATO…The taliban,syrian and iraqi mujahadeen are going to walk through iraq to the iranian border and attack iran? are you looking for the 6th pillar? if you are then go free the palestinians bro you are so way off its not funny….

    • Btru2u

      Well said , it makes sense.

  • wargame1

    The fall of Syrian regime will exhilarate the Iraqi Mujaheddin to renew their attack on the US/Irani puppet in Iraq.This is where the hidden math is; USA want to attack Iran !! very good but then why USA installed two pro Iranian shia regime in Iraq and in Afghanistan with the help of Iran? If USA really wants to attack Iran then why did it pull out its army from Iraq? Here is the conflict of interest. USA wish to keep Bashar and Iranian majoosis in Power so they can take care of Nuri Al maliki and Hamid Karzai. 
    But this game is now backfiring due to the unexpected Syrian revolution. USA and the rest of the world outwardly support the revolution because there is no valid reason to support Bashar. But fall of Bashar will certainly weaken Hezbushaitan and the Iraqi puppet. Fall of Karzai Government or any withdrawal from Afghanistan will have the same result. How long can the coalition force stay there for a total economic bankruptcy. 

    But the inevitable event is coming to pass. The coalition force now realizes that these puppets wont last very long thats why they have been trying to negotiate with the Taliban. Negotiation with the Taliban means a reverse policy.The occupation force never thought of a situation like this so it is inconceivable for many to think the impossible. But we did see the Negotiation effort with the same old taliban! what a shame….

    Iran , Russia, Israel and China sensed it very well; So the useless war by mouth of Israel attacking Iran is nonsense. As long as USA has the Zionist neocon influence, USA will keep aiding Iran as usual. So who will attack Iran ? 

    Answer: The Taliban , Syrian and Iraqi mujaheddin will attack Iran.The Europeans who are now bogged down in Afghanistan wont maintain the puppet anymore. So America and Israel will not attack Iran but The Taliban, Iraqi and Syrian Mujaheddin will together with NATO under a treaty.In the past the Afghan Mujaheddin had such treaty with the Europeans against Russia which was broken so this forth coming treaty will be broken too after the conquest of Iran. 

    So who ever thinks Iran will be attacked is correct but the attacker are not Israel nor USA but the Muslims and the European(Roman) . USA is also representing the Romans but are heavily infiltrated by the Khazars so they cant function as they way they want. 

    We might see an attack on Iran and on Russia at the end of 2013 or early 2014; 

    • dateam

      where do you get your information from? America is part of NATO…The taliban,syrian and iraqi mujahadeen are going to walk through iraq to the iranian border and attack iran? are you looking for the 6th pillar? if you are then go free the palestinians bro you are so way off its not funny….

    • Btru2u

      Well said , it makes sense.

  • Btru2u

    History will show clear evidence that America collaborated /orchestrated  the genocide against the innocent and mostly unarmed people of Syria  through its procrastination,empty rhetric, and blackmail in the region.. People are saving and recording events, even though Americas propanganda machine is in full gear, shame is pitched all over them and their  followers.

  • Btru2u

    History will show clear evidence that America collaborated /orchestrated  the genocide against the innocent and mostly unarmed people of Syria  through its procrastination,empty rhetric, and blackmail in the region.. People are saving and recording events, even though Americas propanganda machine is in full gear, shame is pitched all over them and their  followers.