Analysis:Time is on the side of the rebels in Assad’s Stalingrad

By Chris Stephen

THE battle for Aleppo is shaping up to be Syria’s Stalingrad, and it is the forces of president Bashar al-Assad which are staring defeat in the face.

While the Syrian army has the tanks, artillery and attack helicopters, it is the Free Syrian Army which is in the driving seat and which chose this battle.

For a guerrilla army, no environment is more of an equaliser than a city, with its narrow streets and tall buildings. Cities are an environment that conventional armies dread.

All the advantages are with the defender. The Free Syrian Army militias have plentiful protection from the artillery and helicopter gunships, and a pulverised building is as good a strongpoint as an intact one.
Tanks are acutely vulnerable in the restricted spaces – witness recent film posted by activists showing Free Syrian Army units knocking out Assad’s armour with Molotov cocktails hurled from alleys and rooftops.

Advancing infantry must stumble through unfamiliar terrain, with a hundred places for a sniper to conceal himself.

Not for nothing did Free Syrian Army commander Abdel Jabbar al-Oqaidi declare at the weekend that Aleppo would be Assad’s “graveyard”.

So difficult it is to capture a city that the British Army has evolved special tactics called Fighting In A Built Up Area. But no amount of tactics can overcome the grim reality that an army can capture a defended city only if it is willing to take casualties.

And those casualties can be high, as Russia found out when capturing Grozny from the Chechens a decade ago, and as the United States army found storming Iraq’s Falluja.

Assad is deploying his 4th armoured brigade, commanded by his brother Maher, as morale in the rest of his army crumbles.

In Assad’s favour is that the Free Syrian Army is without the Nato bombers that proved decisive for Libya’s rebels. He also continues to enjoy the support of Russia.

However, the guerrillas also have their suppliers and understand better than their foe the political reality of the war. They know they need not defeat their enemy in battle, but only avoid defeat.

It is for Assad to win back control of his country, or see him abandoned by his own people. His chance to find a political solution to the war appears to have gone, leaving him with no option but to continue sending his dwindling reserves hither and thither to meet Free Syrian Army attacks.

Ominously, dozens of senior officials and officers continue to defect to the rebels, with none defecting in the other direction.

Scotsman

  • wargame1

    Dog Bashar is preparing for a ground war which is the ultimate goal if he like to take control of the city. Bombing with planes and helicopters will kill the civilians and cause collateral damage thus will make people more angry on this stupid tyrant. 

    At the end of the day when he send the ground troops they will face IED, Sniper fire and RPG. The article itself explains the consequence beautifully.This is a lose lose situation for the Syrian dog. If he surrenders he will be hanged and if he wish to continue then his whole army will perish.He could step down and could stop this bloodshed. The cornered rat Hezbushaitan will have no choice but to openly make an alliance with Israel. Alliance with Israel existed long before but due to their fiery talk and fake war against each other this matter was hidden. 

    Israel might attack Lebanon again in the name of “Attacking Hezbushaitan” but in reality they will attack the sunni resistance with the help of this Iranian pigs. It will be interesting to see how Israel deal with the Syrian resistance. At one point this game of deception will be of no use. We are heading towards that situation where Assad , Iran and Hezbushaitan will openly join with Israel against the Muslims. 

    • bs244846

      wajhouka ya wargame fihi toulou wafi woujouhi al kilabi toulou….
      wal kalbou wafin wa fika ghadroun fafika 3an kadrihi soufoulou….
      wafihi ashya”on salihaton hamakaha allahou wal rassoulou

    • bs244846

      wla hmar fhimna bass a3ma kamen !!!! shou mish shayif al sunnah wal yahoud 7oulafa…..cant you see israel and saoudi jarabia allied together…shou hal ahbal wlo….sunna resistance in lebanon…hhhhh….my ass…show me where it is…resistance against who….hal ahbal wal hmar hariri ibn al moukhannath rafik herben mitl al kalb

      • rossoferrari

        hey bull shit. Little you know about the plan. Shit started to occur once ass assad did not agree on the saudi proposed plan to resolve the hariri issue. The SS plan was shrugged off by ass asssad and unfortunately this is the price he is paying. You live by the sword and you die by it!!! Things got too big  for him and his ego. Them days are gone, he had an opportunity and he blew it. I must tell you, yes hariri is out of the country, but his magic seems to be working. It is showtime in another word “vindication”Who ever thought that ass assad top four aides will disappear in a split second!!!is it an inside job or lack of leadership or weakness and arroganc all together..

        • bs244846

          ya tozzoferrari, maybe u pick up a saoudi name like tozzojamalini or tozzozibbini it looks more suitable for you.Saoudi arabia is so desperate the shia power is on their door that they are looking for israeli help. We all know that sunna are cheap and that saoudi arabia was always sold to israel but now things are getting so serious that they are declaring their alliance high and loud. By the way the saudi halal products you are eating now are all made in israel. Believe you me a nick like jamalini or just tozzini is much better for you. Allah wa akbar wal izzatou lil jarab

    • 73Corty77

      Where the hell do you get your info from wargame. You have some serious issues dude.
       

      • rossoferrari

        The only serious issue is YOU, earlier on you said, that FSAs are invading syria, you are very wrong, Unless you claim that the syrian people do not belong to syria. additionally, I add: What kind of government cannot stand to few “terrorists “as you have labeled them  The syrian regime has lied about its capabilities to fight and stand to the enemy. Imagine if they were in a real fight with israel. I wonder where would they be!!!! Get real. ass assad shabiha’s days are gone, so is he as they are licking their wounds.

        • 73Corty77

          Are serious. Do you really think that the FSA are the Syrian people. LOL. Most of those misfits are from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Yemen, and Africa.But then again you are to brainwashed and have your head so far up your ass to see what is really going on. Keep letting Al Jazeera and the like feed you with all that crap.

          The Free Syrian Ass Holes are from Syria, Your hilarious.

          As for the government not being able to stand a few terrorist. Again LOL.

          Even this site tells you how much these animals are getting their asses kicked. They claim they took Damascus, then what happened. Got their asses kicked. The next was Aleppo. And low and behold, again more dead animals. 

          Furthermore, You ask what would happen if Syria was in a real fight with Israel. Who the hell do you think is financing this war, The man from the moon. Syria is at War with Israel as well as The US, UK, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey.   

          If the low life Jews couldn’t defeat Hezbollah in 2006 what makes you think they have a chance against Syria. Let me guess the nuclear weapons. If the dumb Jews use them, then guess what we are all gone.

          Basher is going nowhere, that is a guarantee

        • 5thDrawer

          Never mind Rosso. You might have expected the reply below. Corty can’t imagine they might have used Damascus as a way to draw attention from Aleppo so they could set up something closer to Turkey and a supply route. Besides a nice ‘hit’ on a few upper-staff, it also brought the ‘city-folk’ into realizing what Assad does in Homs and other smaller places to women and kids with his planes and tanks. Opening some eyes was not a bad idea.
          I’m sure the Syrians know who they are.

        • http://profile.yahoo.com/A3P5T65BAE2LE7G34BHT2CY4KE TonyT

          Islam is being used by western shadow govts . Divide and conquer. 

      • rossoferrari

        The only serious issue is YOU, earlier on you said, that FSAs are invading syria, you are very wrong, Unless you claim that the syrian people do not belong to syria. additionally, I add: What kind of government cannot stand to few “terrorists “as you have labeled them  The syrian regime has lied about its capabilities to fight and stand to the enemy. Imagine if they were in a real fight with israel. I wonder where would they be!!!! Get real. ass assad shabiha’s days are gone, so is he as they are licking their wounds.

        • 5thDrawer

          Never mind Rosso. You might have expected the reply below. Corty can’t imagine they might have used Damascus as a way to draw attention from Aleppo so they could set up something closer to Turkey and a supply route. Besides a nice ‘hit’ on a few upper-staff, it also brought the ‘city-folk’ into realizing what Assad does in Homs and other smaller places to women and kids with his planes and tanks. Opening some eyes was not a bad idea.
          I’m sure the Syrians know who they are.

  • wargame1

    Dog Bashar is preparing for a ground war which is the ultimate goal if he like to take control of the city. Bombing with planes and helicopters will kill the civilians and cause collateral damage thus will make people more angry on this stupid tyrant. 

    At the end of the day when he send the ground troops they will face IED, Sniper fire and RPG. The article itself explains the consequence beautifully.This is a lose lose situation for the Syrian dog. If he surrenders he will be hanged and if he wish to continue then his whole army will perish.He could step down and could stop this bloodshed. The cornered rat Hezbushaitan will have no choice but to openly make an alliance with Israel. Alliance with Israel existed long before but due to their fiery talk and fake war against each other this matter was hidden. 

    Israel might attack Lebanon again in the name of “Attacking Hezbushaitan” but in reality they will attack the sunni resistance with the help of this Iranian pigs. It will be interesting to see how Israel deal with the Syrian resistance. At one point this game of deception will be of no use. We are heading towards that situation where Assad , Iran and Hezbushaitan will openly join with Israel against the Muslims. 

    • bs244846

      wla hmar fhimna bass a3ma kamen !!!! shou mish shayif al sunnah wal yahoud 7oulafa…..cant you see israel and saoudi jarabia allied together…shou hal ahbal wlo….sunna resistance in lebanon…hhhhh….my ass…show me where it is…resistance against who….hal ahbal wal hmar hariri ibn al moukhannath rafik herben mitl al kalb

      • rossoferrari

        hey bull shit. Little you know about the plan. Shit started to occur once ass assad did not agree on the saudi proposed plan to resolve the hariri issue. The SS plan was shrugged off by ass asssad and unfortunately this is the price he is paying. You live by the sword and you die by it!!! Things got too big  for him and his ego. Them days are gone, he had an opportunity and he blew it. I must tell you, yes hariri is out of the country, but his magic seems to be working. It is showtime in another word “vindication”Who ever thought that ass assad top four aides will disappear in a split second!!!is it an inside job or lack of leadership or weakness and arroganc all together..

  • wargame1

    Dog Bashar is preparing for a ground war which is the ultimate goal if he like to take control of the city. Bombing with planes and helicopters will kill the civilians and cause collateral damage thus will make people more angry on this stupid tyrant. 

    At the end of the day when he send the ground troops they will face IED, Sniper fire and RPG. The article itself explains the consequence beautifully.This is a lose lose situation for the Syrian dog. If he surrenders he will be hanged and if he wish to continue then his whole army will perish.He could step down and could stop this bloodshed. The cornered rat Hezbushaitan will have no choice but to openly make an alliance with Israel. Alliance with Israel existed long before but due to their fiery talk and fake war against each other this matter was hidden. 

    Israel might attack Lebanon again in the name of “Attacking Hezbushaitan” but in reality they will attack the sunni resistance with the help of this Iranian pigs. It will be interesting to see how Israel deal with the Syrian resistance. At one point this game of deception will be of no use. We are heading towards that situation where Assad , Iran and Hezbushaitan will openly join with Israel against the Muslims. 

    • bs244846

      wajhouka ya wargame fihi toulou wafi woujouhi al kilabi toulou….
      wal kalbou wafin wa fika ghadroun fafika 3an kadrihi soufoulou….
      wafihi ashya”on salihaton hamakaha allahou wal rassoulou

    • bs244846

      wla hmar fhimna bass a3ma kamen !!!! shou mish shayif al sunnah wal yahoud 7oulafa…..cant you see israel and saoudi jarabia allied together…shou hal ahbal wlo….sunna resistance in lebanon…hhhhh….my ass…show me where it is…resistance against who….hal ahbal wal hmar hariri ibn al moukhannath rafik herben mitl al kalb

      • rossoferrari

        hey bull shit. Little you know about the plan. Shit started to occur once ass assad did not agree on the saudi proposed plan to resolve the hariri issue. The SS plan was shrugged off by ass asssad and unfortunately this is the price he is paying. You live by the sword and you die by it!!! Things got too big  for him and his ego. Them days are gone, he had an opportunity and he blew it. I must tell you, yes hariri is out of the country, but his magic seems to be working. It is showtime in another word “vindication”Who ever thought that ass assad top four aides will disappear in a split second!!!is it an inside job or lack of leadership or weakness and arroganc all together..

        • bs244846

          ya tozzoferrari, maybe u pick up a saoudi name like tozzojamalini or tozzozibbini it looks more suitable for you.Saoudi arabia is so desperate the shia power is on their door that they are looking for israeli help. We all know that sunna are cheap and that saoudi arabia was always sold to israel but now things are getting so serious that they are declaring their alliance high and loud. By the way the saudi halal products you are eating now are all made in israel. Believe you me a nick like jamalini or just tozzini is much better for you. Allah wa akbar wal izzatou lil jarab

    • 73Corty77

      Where the hell do you get your info from wargame. You have some serious issues dude.
       

      • rossoferrari

        The only serious issue is YOU, earlier on you said, that FSAs are invading syria, you are very wrong, Unless you claim that the syrian people do not belong to syria. additionally, I add: What kind of government cannot stand to few “terrorists “as you have labeled them  The syrian regime has lied about its capabilities to fight and stand to the enemy. Imagine if they were in a real fight with israel. I wonder where would they be!!!! Get real. ass assad shabiha’s days are gone, so is he as they are licking their wounds.

        • 73Corty77

          Are serious. Do you really think that the FSA are the Syrian people. LOL. Most of those misfits are from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Yemen, and Africa.But then again you are to brainwashed and have your head so far up your ass to see what is really going on. Keep letting Al Jazeera and the like feed you with all that crap.

          The Free Syrian Ass Holes are from Syria, Your hilarious.

          As for the government not being able to stand a few terrorist. Again LOL.

          Even this site tells you how much these animals are getting their asses kicked. They claim they took Damascus, then what happened. Got their asses kicked. The next was Aleppo. And low and behold, again more dead animals. 

          Furthermore, You ask what would happen if Syria was in a real fight with Israel. Who the hell do you think is financing this war, The man from the moon. Syria is at War with Israel as well as The US, UK, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey.   

          If the low life Jews couldn’t defeat Hezbollah in 2006 what makes you think they have a chance against Syria. Let me guess the nuclear weapons. If the dumb Jews use them, then guess what we are all gone.

          Basher is going nowhere, that is a guarantee

        • 5thDrawer

          Never mind Rosso. You might have expected the reply below. Corty can’t imagine they might have used Damascus as a way to draw attention from Aleppo so they could set up something closer to Turkey and a supply route. Besides a nice ‘hit’ on a few upper-staff, it also brought the ‘city-folk’ into realizing what Assad does in Homs and other smaller places to women and kids with his planes and tanks. Opening some eyes was not a bad idea.
          I’m sure the Syrians know who they are.

  • 5thDrawer

    Accurate assessment.
    Not much left to move back into anyway … refugees might want to build up their camps for future cities of slums.
    Lebanon has a few of those ….

    • bs244846

      i suggest sunna coward refugees in Lebanon go to saoudi arabia before hizbollah skins them

      • 5thDrawer

        It was Hezzybolla camps I was talking about … but maybe you missed that. :-)

        • bs244846

          i did not miss anything and if you think i am hizbollah member you are wrong. But honestly Hassan nasrallah has shown a lot of maturation and intelligence as compared to that chicken hariri. hariris behaviour will lead the sunna to go to saoudi arabia if he keeps on his stupidity as such…further i was one of the most virulent antisyrian when syria used to occupy Lebanon however i prefer assad to the rubbish muslum botherhood and certainly to those stupid traitors called free syrian army. They have nothing free except their stupidity and their life….wait and see they will be executed one by one…most of them are not syrians but mercenaries from other arabic countries….remember they did the same in Lebanon too…like the bastard father hariri used to say: if i cant islamise the people i will islamise the land. P.S. bastard = saoudi

  • 5thDrawer

    Accurate assessment.
    Not much left to move back into anyway … refugees might want to build up their camps for future cities of slums.
    Lebanon has a few of those ….

    • bs244846

      i suggest sunna coward refugees in Lebanon go to saoudi arabia before hizbollah skins them

  • 5thDrawer

    Accurate assessment.
    Not much left to move back into anyway … refugees might want to build up their camps for future cities of slums.

    • bs244846

      i suggest sunna coward refugees in Lebanon go to saoudi arabia before hizbollah skins them

      • 5thDrawer

        It was Hezzybolla camps I was talking about … but you missed that. :-)

        • bs244846

          i did not miss anything and if you think i am hizbollah member you are wrong. But honestly Hassan nasrallah has shown a lot of maturation and intelligence as compared to that chicken hariri. hariris behaviour will lead the sunna to go to saoudi arabia if he keeps on his stupidity as such…further i was one of the most virulent antisyrian when syria used to occupy Lebanon however i prefer assad to the rubbish muslum botherhood and certainly to those stupid traitors called free syrian army. They have nothing free except their stupidity and their life….wait and see they will be executed one by one…most of them are not syrians but mercenaries from other arabic countries….remember they did the same in Lebanon too…like the bastard father hariri used to say: if i cant islamise the people i will islamise the land. P.S. bastard = saoudi

  • Gerald

    This is A war Asaad can really win ,If He planned better
    To start with the ‘few’ terrorists include nearly 100,000 defectors from the Syrian Army,Al Qaeda jihadists and islamic hardliners.Why anyone wold support The FSA over a secular Asaad(Asaad was not a bad man,The West are the ones busy demonising him)is beyond me!Or everyone wants the destruction of Syria as a unitary state coz I do not see the Alawis,christians,Druze,Ismailis and Kurds wanting to be ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood and al Qaeda offshoots As for going to war with Israel,It would involve plenty of weapons asaad is currently not using on the FSA,Starting with those chemical stockpiles they have.AND The US seems so eager for them to fall into the hands of the Islamists.How Nice.
    Asaad should stay

    • bs244846

      Thanks Gerald for this intelligent evaluation…i cannot better agree with you…i believe we share same opinion…i dont think even animals would like to live under muslum botherhood regime…only hariri and geagea would enjoy it

  • Gerald

    This is A war Asaad can really win ,If He planned better
    To start with the ‘few’ terrorists include nearly 100,000 defectors from the Syrian Army,Al Qaeda jihadists and islamic hardliners.Why anyone wold support The FSA over a secular Asaad(Asaad was not a bad man,The West are the ones busy demonising him)is beyond me!Or everyone wants the destruction of Syria as a unitary state coz I do not see the Alawis,christians,Druze,Ismailis and Kurds wanting to be ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood and al Qaeda offshoots As for going to war with Israel,It would involve plenty of weapons asaad is currently not using on the FSA,Starting with those chemical stockpiles they have.AND The US seems so eager for them to fall into the hands of the Islamists.How Nice.
    Asaad should stay

    • bs244846

      Thanks Gerald for this intelligent evaluation…i cannot better agree with you…i believe we share same opinion…i dont think even animals would like to live under muslum botherhood regime…only hariri and geagea would enjoy it

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/A3P5T65BAE2LE7G34BHT2CY4KE TonyT

    No way am I defending Assad, but please, Syrias battle hardened special forces(many with street fighting experience in liban) are going to wipe the streets with these mercanaries. Free Syria Army is a joke….Western Shadow Govt army is more like it. Look for the Cabalists, to soon, use another ploy to install a jihadist govr that will eventually be used in a war with Isreal. 

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/A3P5T65BAE2LE7G34BHT2CY4KE TonyT

    No way am I defending Assad, but please, Syrias battle hardened special forces(many with street fighting experience in liban) are going to wipe the streets with these mercanaries. Free Syria Army is a joke….Western Shadow Govt army is more like it. Look for the Cabalists, to soon, use another ploy to install a jihadist govr that will eventually be used in a war with Isreal. 

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/A3P5T65BAE2LE7G34BHT2CY4KE TonyT

    Islam is being used by western shadow govts . Divide and conquer. 

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/A3P5T65BAE2LE7G34BHT2CY4KE TonyT

    Islam is being used by western shadow govts . Divide and conquer. 

  • LEBANON101

    all of you are biased and are talking out of your butts. shia are going to be with assad and sunna are going to be  against. that is a given. none of you except 5thdrawer are looking at the situation through sane,  neutral eyes. al assad is a brutal dictator whos people are finally fighting back . yes they are going to be supported from the outside. yes saudia arabia ans turkey are sending the free syrian army which is made of 100 percent syrian weapons. yes there is other groups but they are small in number and are not SYRIAN. at the same time of course iran is supporting al assad. they have been for years this is nothing new. this is typical . why are you all surprised or angry that saida arabia or iran or russia has picked a side in this conflict. each country has something to gain that is the only reason they would send money and guns. the only people who are losing is the syrian people . on both sides. pro  assad or anti assad. sunni alwatie druze or christian. al assad CANNOT win this is known . anyone who says other wise is either really dumb or is saying it becuase politically or ethnically they are on al assads side. he is going to leave , be killed or captured. the only question is when and how many more lives it is going to cost both side. nchala ya rab this conflict ends soon and the blood soaked streets of syria are restored.

  • LEBANON101

    all of you are biased and are talking out of your butts. shia are going to be with assad and sunna are going to be  against. that is a given. none of you except 5thdrawer are looking at the situation through sane,  neutral eyes. al assad is a brutal dictator whos people are finally fighting back . yes they are going to be supported from the outside. yes saudia arabia ans turkey are sending the free syrian army which is made of 100 percent syrian weapons. yes there is other groups but they are small in number and are not SYRIAN. at the same time of course iran is supporting al assad. they have been for years this is nothing new. this is typical . why are you all surprised or angry that saida arabia or iran or russia has picked a side in this conflict. each country has something to gain that is the only reason they would send money and guns. the only people who are losing is the syrian people . on both sides. pro  assad or anti assad. sunni alwatie druze or christian. al assad CANNOT win this is known . anyone who says other wise is either really dumb or is saying it becuase politically or ethnically they are on al assads side. he is going to leave , be killed or captured. the only question is when and how many more lives it is going to cost both side. nchala ya rab this conflict ends soon and the blood soaked streets of syria are restored.