Are Libya’s friends better than Syria’s?

The Syrian uprising began nearly one year ago, when in March, thousands of pro-reform demonstrators took to the streets in Daraa to denounce the Assad regime. Since that time, thousands of civilians have been killed and the country has arguably descended into civil war.

Just a month before the streets of Daraa erupted, the world’s attention was on Benghazi. Libyans had also taken to the streets in similar fashion, who were likewise met with live ammunition by Muammar Qaddafi’s forces. The events in Benghazi escalated to civil war in their own right; however the end of hostilities there has already arrived.

The primary reason for the end of Libyan hostilities was the overwhelming support that opposition forces received from the international community. It only took two weeks from the time the Libyan people demanded change in their country for the world to begin its assistance, when it froze Qaddafi’s and his inner circle’s assets, limited their travel, and referred the lot to the International Criminal Court. In just the following month, the United Nations approved a resolution to enforce a no-fly zone, which included using “all necessary measures” to thwart attacks on the citizenry. The aforesaid resolution subsequently led to a new Libyan government, which was recognized by the United Nations, in just seven month’s time.

Meanwhile, across the Mediterranean, the Syrian uprising is entering its twelfth month and the disparity between the two revolutions is vast. Assad is still in power, and his efforts to quell the revolution in his country persist as unabated as scores of people are killed every day. However, it must be noted that the Syrian opposition, as did the Libyan counterpart, formed its own National Council of rebel organizations. They likewise have begun to encourage defections from the military and have shown the capacity to carry out sophisticated attacks against regime forces. But, where is the international community? Where is the no-fly zone? Where is the overabundance of Western air support, which comes along with Arab League backing?

The world’s inaction is due to a variety of reasons. First of which, is likely the lack of appetite for another infiltration, especially in a country like Syria, which enjoys both financial and military support from Iran, while maintaining significant trade relations with two United Nations Security Council members — Russia and China, who have acted as stumbling blocks toward the enforcement of any meaningful sanctions for a significant amount of time. Furthermore, Syria is one of the Arab League’s founding members. It may be for this reason that the regional body took its time building consensus for the modicum of action it has thus far taken. While finally, Bashar Assad has not been on the radar of the West for decades, like Col. Qaddafi, and therefore, they were not so opportunistic as to seize the opening for his ouster when it presented itself.

As a result, we will see the Syrian revolution play out much differently and it will likely be a continuation of the actions we have seen thus far. There will be increased draconian rhetoric from nations like the United States and Turkey who are looking to assert their influence in the region at this critical moment. These two nations will likely continue their efforts to provide minimal support to opposition activity; however, it will prove to be futile in the short-term. If there is to be real change in the coming weeks, it will likely come from a coalition of the willing.

The “Friends of Syria”, the 70-nation meeting which converged on Tunis to pressure the Untied Nations into action, proved to be complacent at best. So much so that another meeting of Syria’s so-called friends is scheduled for this month. But the fact remains that the meeting accomplished very little if anything at all, as the 70-nation meeting was missing two crucial components — Russia and China.

As was already learned, very little will be accomplished within the United Nations as long as either Russia or China continue to dangle their veto power in the face of the international body. As powers in the East continue to assert their will, it will force the hands of the West to act unilaterally, bypassing any desired international mandate.

What would result would have the look of a hybrid NATO-Arab League effort. Due to NATO’s previous involvement in Libya, it will not likely declare the alliance’s outright involvement in a new aerial campaign against an Arab nation. However, nations like the United States, Turkey and France will likely lead the military and humanitarian campaign with Arab League backing in the form of Qatar and Jordan, the latter of which has already established refugee camps on its borders, while the former continuously works behind the scenes to be the Middle East’s new power broker.

It appears that the only thing that may amount from the Friends of Syria meeting is a challenge to the status quo that is now the Syrian sectarian conflict. That said, the realization of such a status quo and the need to challenge it, may finally incite the necessary powers into action.

By JAY RADZINSKI

The author is an intelligence manager at Max-Security Solutions, a geo-political risk consulting firm based in the Middle East.

Arab News

  • ba

    Same friends different motives. China will not be allowed to control any oil in the world. They had made large investments in Libya….. Syria has no Oil ( the have a little compared to the region about 120,000 bpd)  to care about and a banking system thats already controlled by the powers that be. Very simple and easy. In Libya you have options to make money and in Syria your only option is selling weapons and prolonging the conflict as much as possible.

    • JessicaHabib

       A link to the U.N document on the U.N official website not google showing the statements made about Iraq not having nuke. I thought I would post this so you can finally shut up the people that think you wrote it or got it from a conspiracy website. This also proves war is a lie. And Syria, Libya, Lebanon, Iran, Palestine and no other nations have friends.

      http://www.un.org/news/dh/iraq/elbaradei27jan03.htm

      • ba

         Thanks! I Got your message on FB and replying so check that soon. Im in Lebanon now. The mountains are covered with snow.

        I think most people in the world know Iraq was a lie but youre always going to have some people that just dont get it or care. Any idiot that thought otherwise is just too stupid to think or remember. People normally say it was 10 years ago and fail to imagine it happening again or that all of a sudden the governments stopped the lies or like Obama is going to make everything better with his trillion dollars in bailout money that never gets reinvested.

        I guess its like Stalin said. If you kill one person its murder but if you kill 1 million people its only a statistic.

        • master09

          No body accusses me of something I never said.
          Second if someone does not agree with what you say, good for them but that is thier business but you guys are wanting to force it down everyones throats and call everyone idiots for not saying yes master we agree with what you say.
           
          We all already know that all WARS since day one have all been lies and bullshit, be it USA or the Arabs or the kids at the school yard , so please tell us a story we have not heard before……         

      • ba

         Thanks! I Got your message on FB and replying so check that soon. Im in Lebanon now. The mountains are covered with snow.

        I think most people in the world know Iraq was a lie but youre always going to have some people that just dont get it or care. Any idiot that thought otherwise is just too stupid to think or remember. People normally say it was 10 years ago and fail to imagine it happening again or that all of a sudden the governments stopped the lies or like Obama is going to make everything better with his trillion dollars in bailout money that never gets reinvested.

        I guess its like Stalin said. If you kill one person its murder but if you kill 1 million people its only a statistic.

      • master09

        For one where in my post today or any other day did I call bad ass a liar or an idiot not once, if you can point them out I will be on my knees.
        2. I have no buddies on this site we are all here to make adult remarks on political subjects, but the last couple of days it has been you and 3 others  who have been calling everyone liars and shit heads and d…ks and so on and so on and most of all if they don’t agree with you guys ,then you  call people idiots.
        Let me remind you you said ” IF YOU DON’T BELIEVE IN THAN YOUR AN IDIOT, YOU HAVE CALLED PEOPLE IDIOTS SINCE YOU JOIN THIS GROUP NOT ONCE BUT A COUPLE TIME. .Apologize to that………… One of the other calls everyone F…KS AND DI…KS AND MASTERBATERS, WHAT DO YOU DO GIVE HIM A LIKE .     GOOD ON YOU….    

        . Get your facts rite I have been on here for a while and not once have I called someone an idiot or most of all a liar. But I have been wrong once or twice so SHOW me where I said this.

        Who is bashing people around, no one but you 4 amigos.

        Good on you as you said THIS ALSO PROVES WAR IS A LIE Wow where have you been hiding…..As if we all don’t know that every WAR  in the HISTORY OF THE WORLD IS  A LIE AND YOU GUYS HAVE BEEN ON THIS IRAQ CRAP FOR THREE DAYS, TELL US SOMETHING WE DON,T KNOW.

        Every war is a lie . for 5000 years.    What research are you kidding, all they say is what it means. wow You need to read between the LINES a lot more in it then what you read not just lies.

        • ba

           can you guys forget this bullshit already?

        • JessicaHabib

          You have a point Im sorry I just read your comments over. Its that other 7akibalash and judging from how racist his recent comments about other religions are I seriously think its not even worth the effort with him.

      • Fadi81

         i hate to re hatch things, but I just want to set the record straight. since I been reading this site and commenting I have noticed a few things about the individuals here, many are respectful, cool, and collected (5th being one of those individuals). unlike myself where I tend to get ‘excited’ about issues concerning Lebanon. Also, 7akibalash is some what of a rogue, one day we can agree on things and the next we cant, I dont think he is ‘butt buddies’ with anyone here, he just shoots from the hips and anyone in the way is likely to get sprayed…it seems you and bad ass have some positive views regarding lebanese politics, but we can all disagree on who’s fault it is people in the ME are living in the conditions they are. some will blame the west and the elite powers, and others dont look past the guns doing the shooting. I tend to be one of the individuals who would like to start with the guns and munitions on the ground doing the killing, then once those are cleared we can discuss who’s interests were served most by all this killing. have a good day!

      • master09

        Cool , good day to you.. 

      • dabshaleem

        yu lik salafite bad ass mis 

  • Bad Ass

    Same friends different motives. China will not be allowed to control any oil in the world. They had made large investments in Libya….. Syria has no Oil ( the have a little compared to the region about 120,000 bpd)  to care about and a banking system thats already controlled by the powers that be. Very simple and easy. In Libya you have options to make money and in Syria your only option is selling weapons and prolonging the conflict as much as possible.

  • Fauzia45

    This veto power in the United Nations should be re evaluated for it seems that it serves as an obstacle in most cases and ¨very little ¨can be accomplished !!!

    • 5thDrawer

      It’s like the soccer game, Fauzia. There are rules. When players agree to join the game and play with the boys and girls, they have to go with the rules. This particular rule is like a ‘referee rule’. 
      Now, in down-times, and with other committees, they can change the rules … over time … if they all agree to the changes. As in sports, it can take years … or like in Lebanon, decades. Debating the rules is one of the biggest games. As we see, of course. In the meantime, that’s the rules. Silly as they may seem.

      And it’s nice that Jessica (below) can go easily to the records of UN sessions, and find reports, and find out what people said too. In this case ? Basically what was said in the news reports here and in other places.
      Theorists are, of course, another matter … they are everywhere. Even here.
      Meanwhile, I wait for them to pull up the records, for history books perhaps, of what is also said in Liban Cabinet sessions … or Iranian for that matter … hmmm … should be somewhere around here … errr …

      • master09

        Jessica is good I wonder how she got her hands on that. LOL
        Shit does that mean it was a lie all that time, they did take me for a ride. Got to open my eyes after that. Is war really a lie? haha War, what is it good for, cool song to.

        • 5thDrawer

          Not a lie to the children, master09 … real for them.
          The twist is that even though all those records are there and people can find them, they still speculate that it’s designed to be going another way … and we do see that the UN, while making it’s reports, has also discovered (especially after 9/11) the good old lines about ‘Takiya’ …. so now, no-one believes anything said, even when they want to.
          I mean, look at the strangled smile on Nastyrallah’s face when he was ‘chatting’ with Aoun. Like a used-car salesman. You want to believe what he’s selling has low milage, and you buy the car, but then you still doubt so much that each morning after you look under to see if there’s oil dripping … and drive waiting for it to die.
          Jessica wonders why no-one is friendly … she has not met enough used-car salesmen yet.

        • JessicaHabib

          You need to apologize to badass for being rude, calling him an idiot and a liar.

          You also need to tell your butt buddy 7akibalash to say sorry. You guys have the nerve to just agree now and not mention the guy that was trying to tell you this over and over?

          Next time before you start bashing people do some real research and be mature about it.

        • 5thDrawer

          Oh … ‘butt-buddy’ … there ‘they’ go again … 🙁

        • ba

          I didnt accuse you of saying anything. I also didnt force you to read or reply to any of my comments. You initiated contact with me over and over. If you dont like what I have to say then dont read my comments and or dont reply. Now seriously lets just drop it.

  • Anonymous

    This veto power in the United Nations should be re evaluated for it seems that it serves as an obstacle in most cases and ¨very little ¨can be accomplished !!!

    • Anonymous

      It’s like the soccer game, Fauzia. There are rules. When players agree to join the game and play with the boys and girls, they have to go with the rules. This particular rule is like a ‘referee rule’. 
      Now, in down-times, and with other committees, they can change the rules … over time … if they all agree to the changes. As in sports, it can take years … or like in Lebanon, decades. Debating the rules is one of the biggest games. As we see, of course. In the meantime, that’s the rules. Silly as they may seem.

      And it’s nice that Jessica (below) can go easily to the records of UN sessions, and find reports, and find out what people said too. In this case ? Basically what was said in the news reports here and in other places.
      Theorists are, of course, another matter … they are everywhere. Even here.
      Meanwhile, I wait for them to pull up the records, for history books perhaps, of what is also said in Liban Cabinet sessions … or Iranian for that matter … hmmm … should be somewhere around here … errr …

      • Anonymous

        Jessica is good I wonder how she got her hands on that. LOL
        Shit does that mean it was a lie all that time, they did take me for a ride. Got to open my eyes after that. Is war really a lie? haha War, what is it good for, cool song to.

        • Anonymous

          Not a lie to the children, master09 … real for them.
          The twist is that even though all those records are there and people can find them, they still speculate that it’s designed to be going another way … and we do see that the UN, while making it’s reports, has also discovered (especially after 9/11) the good old lines about ‘Takiya’ …. so now, no-one believes anything said, even when they want to.
          I mean, look at the strangled smile on Nasyrallah’s face when he was ‘chatting’ with Aoun. Like a used-car salesman. You want to believe what he’s selling has low milage, and you buy the car, but then you still doubt so much that each morning after you look under to see if there’s oil dripping … and drive waiting for it to die.
          Jessica wonders why no-one is friendly … she has not met enough used-car salesmen yet.

        • Anonymous

          You need to apologize to badass for being rude, calling him an idiot and a liar.

          You also need to tell your butt buddy 7akibalash to say sorry. You guys have the nerve to just agree now and not mention the guy that was trying to tell you this over and over?

          Next time before you start bashing people do some real research and be mature about it.

        • Anonymous

          Oh … ‘butt-buddy’ … there ‘they’ go again … 🙁

        • Bad Ass

           I didnt accuse you of saying anything. I also didnt force you to read or reply to any of my comments. You initiated contact with me over and over. If you dont like what I have to say they dont read my comments and or dont reply. Now seriously lets just drop it.

  • Bad Ass

     Thanks! I Got your message on FB and replying so check that soon. Im in Lebanon now. The mountains are covered with snow.

    I think most people in the world know Iraq was a lie but youre always going to have some people that just dont get it or care. Any idiot that thought otherwise is just too stupid to think or remember. People normally say it was 10 years ago and fail to imagine it happening again or that all of a sudden the governments stopped the lies or like Obama is going to make everything better with his trillion dollars in bailout money that never gets reinvested.

    I guess its like Stalin said. If you kill one person its murder but if you kill 1 million people its only a statistic.

    • Anonymous

      No body accusses me of something I never said.
      Second if someone does not agree with what you say, good for them but that is thier business but you guys are wanting to force it down everyones throats and call everyone idiots for not saying yes master we agree with what you say.
       
      We all already know that all WARS since day one have all been lies and bullshit, be it USA or the Arabs or the kids at the school yard , so please tell us a story we have not heard before……         

  • Anonymous

    For one where in my post today or any other day did I call bad ass a liar or an idiot not once, if you can point them out I will be on my knees.
    2. I have no buddies on this site we are all here to make adult remarks on political subjects, but the last couple of days it has been you and 3 others  who have been calling everyone liars and shit heads and d…ks and so on and so on and most of all if they don’t agree with you guys ,then you  call people idiots.
    Let me remind you you said ” IF YOU DON’T BELIEVE IN THAN YOUR AN IDIOT, YOU HAVE CALLED PEOPLE IDIOTS SINCE YOU JOIN THIS GROUP NOT ONCE BUT A COUPLE TIME. .Apologize to that………… One of the other calls everyone F…KS AND DI…KS AND MASTERBATERS, WHAT DO YOU DO GIVE HIM A LIKE .     GOOD ON YOU….    

    . Get your facts rite I have been on here for a while and not once have I called someone an idiot or most of all a liar. But I have been wrong once or twice so SHOW me where I said this.

    Who is bashing people around, no one but you 4 amigos.

    As if we all don’t know that every WAR
     in the HISTORY OF THE WORLD IS  A LIE AND YOU GUYS HAVE BEEN ON THIS IRAQ CRAP FOR THREE DAYS, TELL US SOMETHING WE DON,T KNOW.

    Every war is a lie . for 5000 years.    What research are you kidding all they say is what it means. wow You need to read between the LINES a lot more in it then what you read not just lies.

    • Bad Ass

       can you guys forget this bullshit already?

    • Anonymous

      You have a point Im sorry I just read your comments over. Its that other 7akibalash and judging from how racist his recent comments about other religions are I seriously think its not even worth the effort with him.

  • good morning to everyone, bad ass has a great idea, just drop it …everyone is under pressure and sensitive to trigering words that plumits us in  a free fall to a place and a state non of us are proud of. the unpleasat mood is  scaring a lot of people away lol …where is dab?

    • ba

       Im going to do my best to make you happy.

      you mister salafit wahabi knew notin you drin bira wa chazin girlz fur poonani is salafi wa wahabi mister you no gud salafit wahabi bira dunker wa punnani chazer

      • lol, i am all better now, thanks,  you described me well 🙂

      • master09

        First bad ass if you read correctly, I am talking about your buddy Jessica who accussed me of calling you an idiot and a liar  .
         Second I only reply to your comment about how many Shia are in Iran you said 51% I said 90% only a correction. Bother with your post, me.. ha. good day to you now can we drop it ………………………

        • ba

           the reply came up on my dashboard as if you were replying to me…..

    • ba

       Im going to do my best to make you happy.

      you mister salafit wahabi knew notin you drin bira wa chazin girlz fur poonani is salafi wa wahabi mister you no gud salafit wahabi bira dunker wa punnani chazer

    • 5thDrawer

      (sticks head out of bunker .. turns off ugly computer sound … thinks Dab is muttering somewhere)
      Hi Geo … wish all a good weekend with rain and snow … I’m out and gone and resting.
      Have fun folks.
      🙂
      *Poof*

      • Fadi81

         for the sake of all concerned I hope you dont run out of scotch down there…

        • Hannibal

          lol

  • good morning to everyone, bad ass has a great idea, just drop it …everyone is under pressure and sensitive to trigering words that plumits us in  a free fall to a place and a state non of us are proud of. the unpleasat mood is  scaring a lot of people away lol …where is dab?

    • Bad Ass

       Im going to do my best to make you happy.

      you mister salafit wahabi knew notin you drin bira wa chazin girlz fur poonani is salafi wa wahabi mister you no gud salafit wahabi bira dunker wa punnani chazer

      • lol, i am all better now, thanks,  you described me well 🙂

      • Anonymous

        First bad ass if you read rite, I am talking about your buddy Jessica who accussed me of calling you an idiot and a liar  .
         Second I only reply to your comment about how many Shia are in Iran you said 51% I said 90% only a correction.Bother with your post, me.. ha. good day to you now can we drop it ………………………

        • Bad Ass

           the reply came up on my dashboard as if you were replying to me…..

    • Anonymous

      (sticks head out of bunker .. turns off ugly computer sound … thinks Dab is muttering somewhere)
      Hi Geo … wish all a good weekend with rain and snow … I’m out and gone and resting.
      Have fun folks.
      🙂
      *Poof*

      • Anonymous

         for the sake of all concerned I hope you dont run out of scotch down there…

  • Anonymous

     i hate to re hatch things, but I just want to set the record straight. since I been reading this site and commenting I have noticed a few things about the individuals here, many are respectful, cool, and collected (5th being one of those individuals). unlike myself where I tend to get ‘excited’ about issues concerning Lebanon. Also, 7akibalash is some what of a rogue, one day we can agree on things and the next we cant, I dont think he is ‘butt buddies’ with anyone here, he just shoots from the hips and anyone in the way is likely to get sprayed…it seems you and bad ass have some positive views regarding lebanese politics, but we can all disagree on who’s fault it is people in the ME are living in the conditions they are. some will blame the west and the elite powers, and others dont look past the guns doing the shooting. I tend to be one of the individuals who would like to start with the guns and munitions on the ground doing the killing, then once those are cleared we can discuss who’s interests were served most by all this killing. have a good day!

  • Hannibal

    In the picture: Dead dumb and dumber.

  • In the picture: Dead dumb and dumber.

  • Anonymous

    Cool , good day to you.. 

  • Anonymous

    yu lik salafite bad ass mis